Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
View on PolymarketYES Price
6.5¢
implied probability
24h Drift
0.0¢
day-over-day
Volatility
6.2¢
daily price swing (σ)
Liquidity
$829.9K
order-book depth
24h Volume
$654.8K
traded last day
Smart $ Net
$24.5K
tracked buy − sell
Tracked Wallets
30
17 YES · 13 NO
Top Holder
28%
of tracked capital
Price History
YES priceWhale buyWhale sellRegime shift
YES implied probability over time (intraday resolution), with tracked whale trades overlaid at their YES-equivalent price so buys/sells sit on the line (marker size ∝ trade value). 1 regime shift flagged — days where the consensus moved more than 2.5σ (likely news shocks).
Whale Activity
Tracked smart money is net buying ($24.5K net), leaning NO. Largest single move: BigRabbit sold $13.9K NO at 93¢ on Jun 22.
- SELLNOBigRabbit#4793¢$13.9KJun 22
- BUYNOeightpenguins#2392¢$9.2KJun 19
- BUYNOeightpenguins#2392¢$9.2KJun 19
- BUYNOeightpenguins#2392¢$9KJun 19
- BUYNOeightpenguins#2392¢$8.8KJun 19
- SELLYES0xa43d...00f4#1927¢$4.9KJun 15
- SELLNO0x407d...1bae#5293¢$4.7KJun 20
- BUYNO0x407d...1bae#5292¢$4.6KJun 20
- SELLYES0x9360...03e6#318¢$4.2KJun 11
- SELLYESKrackenSruster#3524¢$2.3KJun 14
Holder Concentration
eightpenguins#23
27.8%$37.9K
mcorleone#78
7.4%$10.1K
0x71ab...f015#89
6.9%$9.4K
MGGA.eth#7
6.8%$9.2K
Jep-G#97
6.1%$8.3K
0xrandd8#12
4.8%$6.5K
0x6fc2...7999#86
4.6%$6.2K
BigRabbit#47
4.1%$5.6K
+ 22 more wallets
31.5%$42.9K
How committed capital is distributed. Top-5 wallets hold 55% of tracked capital (HHI 0.11). A high HHI means a few big convictions drive this market.
Participant P/L
Distribution of tracked wallets’ P/L in this market. 16 winning, 3 losing (win rate 84%); net $18.9K across 30 wallets.
Smart-Money Lean
By headcount57% / 43%
one wallet, one vote
By capital36% / 64%
weighted by committed $
By skill56% / 44%
weighted by skill score — where the sharpest money sits
Three views of which side tracked traders favor. When the skill-weighted lean diverges from the headcount, the most proven wallets disagree with the crowd.
Contacts on Station
| Contact | Side | State | Size | Avg Entry | Value | P/L | First Buy | Last Trade | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 0x9360...03e6 Rank #39.9 SIG | NO | open | 1,700.2 | 74.3¢ | $1,590 | +$327 +25.9% | Jun 7, 2026 | Jun 15, 2026 |
| ▸ | @de5nuts Rank #218.7 SIG | NO | open | 6,000.03 | 76.7¢ | $5,610 | +$1,010 +22.0% | Jun 21, 2026 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | @eightpenguins Rank #238.9 SIG | NO | open | 41,189.4 | 92.0¢ | $38,512 | +$632 +1.7% | Jun 19, 2026 | Jun 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | @KrackenSruster Rank #358.4 SIG | YES | open | 1,000.01 | 6.0¢ | $65 | +$5 +8.3% | Jun 14, 2026 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| 0x79d9...baec Rank #387.7 SIG | NO | open | 6,700 | 76.0¢ | $6,265 | +$1,173 +23.0% | — | — | |
| ▸ | 0xd75a...fdec Rank #577.4 SIG | NO | open | 4,079.11 | 93.0¢ | $3,814 | +$21 +0.6% | Jun 19, 2026 | Jun 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | 0x0099...386e Rank #607.0 SIG | YES | open | 500.02 | 4.0¢ | $33 | +$12 +62.5% | Jun 14, 2026 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| @0xfcb034ffesa540c89ad3732182f6e0c762feac86 Rank #666.8 SIG | YES | open | 3,000.02 | 9.0¢ | $195 | -$75 -27.8% | Jun 19, 2026 | Jun 19, 2026 | |
| ▸ | 0x6770...45fb Rank #716.7 SIG | NO | open | 1,000 | 91.0¢ | $935 | +$25 +2.7% | Jun 20, 2026 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | 0x6fc2...7999 Rank #866.9 SIG | NO | open | 6,999.99 | 89.0¢ | $6,545 | +$315 +5.1% | May 23, 2026 | Jun 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | 0x71ab...f015 Rank #896.8 SIG | NO | open | 13,999.97 | 66.8¢ | $13,090 | +$3,730 +39.9% | Jun 15, 2026 | Jun 15, 2026 |
| ▸ | @WashTrade Rank #936.8 SIG | YES | open | 1,000 | 6.0¢ | $65 | +$5 +8.3% | Jun 22, 2026 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| @MGGA.eth Rank #79.6 SIG | YES | closed | 17,678.07 | 52.0¢ | — | +$47 +0.5% | — | May 25, 2026 | |
| @0xrandd8 Rank #129.2 SIG | YES | closed | 36,256.79 | 18.0¢ | — | +$21 +0.3% | Jun 18, 2026 | Jun 18, 2026 | |
| ▸ | 0x94df...2dce Rank #139.1 SIG | YES | closed | 599.99 | 49.0¢ | — | -$84 -28.6% | May 21, 2026 | May 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | 0x371c...c236 Rank #159.1 SIG | NO | closed | 1,233.09 | 91.0¢ | — | +$58 +5.2% | Jun 20, 2026 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| @7153649820 Rank #168.9 SIG | NO | closed | 5,583.08 | 14.7¢ | — | +$1,524 +185.5% | — | May 6, 2026 | |
| ▸ | 0xa43d...00f4 Rank #198.8 SIG | YES | closed | 22,542.38 | 23.9¢ | — | +$518 +9.6% | Jun 13, 2026 | Jun 15, 2026 |
| ▸ | 0x8a4c...2c4c Rank #209.1 SIG | NO | closed | 7,351.19 | 72.8¢ | — | +$1,471 +27.5% | Jun 15, 2026 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | 0xd396...4991 Rank #268.3 SIG | YES | closed | 1,000 | 9.0¢ | — | +$140 +155.6% | Jun 10, 2026 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| ▸ | 0x665e...ea7e Rank #348.0 SIG | YES | closed | 6,789.99 | 19.0¢ | — | +$436 +33.8% | Apr 28, 2026 | Jun 14, 2026 |
| 0x3ad1...b4c5 Rank #367.8 SIG | YES | closed | 5,487.91 | 85.4¢ | — | -$1,852 -39.5% | — | May 19, 2026 | |
| ▸ | @BigRabbit Rank #477.3 SIG | YES | closed | 17,500 | 32.0¢ | — | -$650 -11.6% | Jun 22, 2026 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | 0x407d...1bae Rank #527.2 SIG | YES | closed | 39,999.9 | 7.5¢ | — | +$3,510 +117.0% | Jun 15, 2026 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | 0xbd69...e123 Rank #557.5 SIG | YES | closed | 1,000 | 40.0¢ | — | +$150 +37.5% | May 10, 2026 | May 29, 2026 |
| @0x6992D56559Dd30b5B5D0F5cA3D5427F9e94e6c1d-1760272837095 Rank #696.7 SIG | YES | closed | 8,399.96 | 29.0¢ | — | +$651 +26.7% | — | May 23, 2026 | |
| @eCash Rank #737.1 SIG | YES | closed | 3,000 | 62.7¢ | — | -$290 -15.4% | — | May 6, 2026 | |
| @mcorleone Rank #787.1 SIG | NO | closed | 18,099.97 | 55.8¢ | — | +$5,460 +54.0% | — | Jun 7, 2026 | |
| ▸ | 0x27f2...4b62 Rank #936.0 SIG | NO | closed | 58 | 64.0¢ | — | -$1 -1.6% | May 29, 2026 | May 29, 2026 |
| @Jep-G Rank #976.7 SIG | YES | closed | 37,206.44 | 22.3¢ | — | +$585 +7.0% | Jun 15, 2026 | Jun 16, 2026 |