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0x8a4c...2c4c
0x8a4ceea487d437f8ca48fde1533d09b61f6f2c4c
7.9
/ 10 · 90D
Orca
Class · est. size $39.1K
30-Day Window6.6 SIG
- Edge / share
- +19.1¢ · 21 resolved
- Hit rate
- 83.9%
- Net P/L · Vol
- $4.7K / $23.1K
- % return
- +14.6%
- Observations
- 31
90-Day Window7.9 SIG
- Edge / share
- +13.9¢ · 79 resolved
- Hit rate
- 71.7%
- Net P/L · Vol
- $8.7K / $39.1K
- % return
- +19.0%
- Observations
- 92
Dive Profile
Net Catch · 90D
+$221
Depth = mark-to-market P/L90-day trace
Current Positions
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg Entry | Current | Value | Unrealized P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | No | 8,116.9 | 77.1¢ | 86.5¢ | $7,021 | +$765 |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | 4,018.21 | 10.0¢ | 2.4¢ | $94 | -$307 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | No | 3,328.57 | 7.6¢ | 26.5¢ | $882 | +$628 |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | Yes | 3,002.48 | 39.9¢ | 59.5¢ | $1,786 | +$587 |
| Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? | Yes | 2,946.8 | 29.0¢ | 17.0¢ | $501 | -$354 |
| Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 2,868.29 | 12.7¢ | 5.8¢ | $165 | -$200 |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 2,108.83 | 9.9¢ | 7.1¢ | $151 | -$58 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | 1,200.01 | 4.2¢ | 24.4¢ | $293 | +$243 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? | Yes | 1,195.2 | 4.3¢ | 2.1¢ | $26 | -$26 |
| Will China have an Ebola case in 2026? | No | 591.15 | 66.0¢ | 69.0¢ | $408 | +$17 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 560 | 73.2¢ | 76.5¢ | $428 | +$19 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | No | 552.98 | 90.4¢ | 96.0¢ | $531 | +$31 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 459.99 | 56.8¢ | 54.5¢ | $251 | -$11 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 428.57 | 21.0¢ | 9.5¢ | $41 | -$49 |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 416.67 | 4.8¢ | 5.0¢ | $21 | +$1 |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 416.67 | 4.8¢ | 4.2¢ | $17 | -$3 |
| Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? | Yes | 313.51 | 17.5¢ | 11.5¢ | $36 | -$19 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 254.71 | 80.5¢ | 90.5¢ | $231 | +$26 |
| Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? | No | 145.81 | 79.2¢ | 89.3¢ | $130 | +$15 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 130.82 | 26.8¢ | 21.3¢ | $28 | -$7 |
| 5kt meteor strike in 2026? | Yes | 123.95 | 32.3¢ | 32.0¢ | $40 | -$0 |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 65.35 | 21.0¢ | 32.5¢ | $21 | +$8 |
| Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 50 | 21.0¢ | 7.5¢ | $4 | -$7 |
| Will EUR/USD hit 1.20 (High) in 2026? | Yes | 30.78 | 63.0¢ | 48.0¢ | $15 | -$5 |
| ECB rate cut in 2026? | Yes | 13.65 | 15.6¢ | 13.5¢ | $2 | -$0 |
Trade History
| Market | Outcome | Avg Entry | Avg Exit | Bought | Sold | Last | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 56.8¢ | — | 459.99 | 0 | Jun 23, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 21.0¢ | — | 65.35 | 0 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | 6.1¢ | — | 2,969.74 | 0 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | Fed rate hike in 2026? | Yes | 38.7¢ | 61.8¢ | 1,274.64 | 1,900 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 74.7¢ | — | 60 | 0 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | No | 7.0¢ | 22.0¢ | 1,428.57 | 600 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 21.0¢ | — | 50 | 0 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? | Yes | 4.3¢ | — | 1,195.2 | 0 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | 72.8¢ | 92.2¢ | 4,785.82 | 4,785.81 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 20? | No | 12.8¢ | — | 400 | 0 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will China have an Ebola case in 2026? | No | 62.0¢ | — | 66.15 | 0 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | ECB rate cut in 2026? | Yes | 15.6¢ | — | 13.65 | 0 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | Yes | 18.1¢ | 29.0¢ | 789.98 | 789.97 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | No | 45.3¢ | 94.0¢ | 600 | 599.99 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? | Yes | 29.0¢ | 17.3¢ | 3,448.28 | 501.48 | Jun 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? | Yes | 43.0¢ | 92.5¢ | 100 | 100 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? | Yes | 40.8¢ | 90.2¢ | 585.96 | 585.96 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| ▸ | Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 12.7¢ | — | 2,868.29 | 0 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| ▸ | US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? | No | 0.2¢ | — | 25,000 | 0 | Jun 16, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | Yes | 21.0¢ | 18.5¢ | 645.5 | 5,280.77 | Jun 16, 2026 |
| ▸ | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | No | 38.2¢ | 88.0¢ | 1,924.61 | 100 | Jun 15, 2026 |
| ▸ | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? | No | — | 95.6¢ | 0 | 5,481.79 | Jun 15, 2026 |
| ▸ | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 45.9¢ | — | 500 | 0 | Jun 15, 2026 |
| ▸ | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | No | 83.4¢ | — | 500 | 0 | Jun 14, 2026 |