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0x371c...c236
0x371ca7c768d4129cacf0985443589d92e026c236
0.0
/ 10 · 90D
Porpoise
Class · est. size $37K
30-Day Window9.1 SIG
- Edge / share
- +16.4¢ · 40 resolved
- Hit rate
- 45.6%
- Net P/L · Vol
- $2.3K / $13.9K
- % return
- +17.2%
- Observations
- 68
90-Day Window0.0 SIG
- Edge / share
- -2.3¢ · 130 resolved
- Hit rate
- 46.5%
- Net P/L · Vol
- $2.6K / $37K
- % return
- +7.4%
- Observations
- 159
Dive Profile
Net Catch · 90D
+$3,207
Depth = mark-to-market P/L90-day trace
Current Positions
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg Entry | Current | Value | Unrealized P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Yes | 1,715.45 | 5.9¢ | 3.1¢ | $54 | -$46 |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 607.7 | 12.5¢ | 10.5¢ | $64 | -$12 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 563.45 | 2.6¢ | 0.5¢ | $3 | -$11 |
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? | Yes | 526.03 | 20.5¢ | 19.0¢ | $100 | -$8 |
| Israel closes its airspace by July 15? | Yes | 515.58 | 10.8¢ | 8.5¢ | $44 | -$12 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | Yes | 445.46 | 4.5¢ | 4.0¢ | $18 | -$2 |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | Yes | 315.12 | 12.7¢ | 10.5¢ | $33 | -$7 |
| Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | Yes | 293.82 | 16.2¢ | 14.5¢ | $43 | -$5 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 279.6 | 9.8¢ | 9.5¢ | $27 | -$1 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | Yes | 251.67 | 15.3¢ | 13.5¢ | $34 | -$5 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? | Yes | 210.93 | 9.3¢ | 2.9¢ | $6 | -$14 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 198.11 | 14.2¢ | 13.5¢ | $27 | -$1 |
| Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 188.4 | 9.6¢ | 3.3¢ | $6 | -$12 |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 180.4 | 31.5¢ | 37.0¢ | $67 | +$10 |
| Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 165.63 | 4.5¢ | 1.7¢ | $3 | -$5 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 154.09 | 34.1¢ | 36.5¢ | $56 | +$4 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | Yes | 31.79 | 24.9¢ | 29.5¢ | $9 | +$1 |
Trade History
| Market | Outcome | Avg Entry | Avg Exit | Bought | Sold | Last | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? | Yes | 20.9¢ | — | 276.88 | 0 | Jun 23, 2026 |
| ▸ | Israel closes its airspace by July 15? | Yes | 10.8¢ | 7.7¢ | 1,169.28 | 873.19 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Yes | 5.5¢ | 6.8¢ | 2,593.15 | 2,045.02 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | Yes | 16.6¢ | 14.2¢ | 362.09 | 248.27 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 12.9¢ | 14.0¢ | 821.98 | 214.28 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | Yes | 12.7¢ | — | 315.12 | 0 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | Yes | 4.5¢ | — | 445.46 | 0 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | No | 53.0¢ | 52.1¢ | 100 | 100 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | Yes | — | 2.9¢ | 0 | 627.49 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 80.6¢ | 87.5¢ | 372.2 | 372.19 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? | Yes | 32.8¢ | 43.2¢ | 178.64 | 178.64 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, 2026? | Yes | — | 8.6¢ | 0 | 55.21 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | 91.0¢ | 94.0¢ | 100 | 100 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | Yes | 24.9¢ | 24.4¢ | 385.19 | 353.4 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 35.0¢ | 35.0¢ | 128.57 | 813.75 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | No | 27.6¢ | 38.9¢ | 373.25 | 1,104.01 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | No | 42.3¢ | 61.3¢ | 585.85 | 1,192.31 | Jun 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 2.6¢ | 0.6¢ | 3,885.83 | 3,322.38 | Jun 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 10.6¢ | 24.8¢ | 552.21 | 885.91 | Jun 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? | Yes | 9.3¢ | 6.0¢ | 430.47 | 219.54 | Jun 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | — | 37.4¢ | 0 | 173.69 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| ▸ | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 3.5¢ | 2.6¢ | 867.03 | 867.02 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? | No | 10.9¢ | 17.3¢ | 756.58 | 528.09 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? | No | 15.9¢ | 19.5¢ | 200 | 200 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? | No | 7.0¢ | 21.1¢ | 60 | 60 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? | Yes | — | 38.2¢ | 0 | 1,111.99 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? | Yes | — | 44.5¢ | 0 | 267.94 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? | Yes | — | 55.7¢ | 0 | 195.28 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? | Yes | — | 62.6¢ | 0 | 289.28 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? | Yes | — | 76.4¢ | 0 | 164.63 | Jun 17, 2026 |