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@de5nuts

0x80a0da00fbdc8440b0ef601341f14c3e24795708

Top 20 - 30D

4.0

/ 10 · 90D

Narwhal

Class · est. size $795.3K

Telemetry Window

30-Day Window8.7 SIG

Edge / share: +16.9¢ · 30 resolved
Hit rate: 37.5%
Net P/L · Vol: $13.3K / $135K
% return: -1.1%
Observations: 40

90-Day Window4.0 SIG

Edge / share: +0.1¢ · 106 resolved
Hit rate: 36.1%
Net P/L · Vol: -$10.5K / $795.3K
% return: -3.2%
Observations: 119

Dive Profile

Net Catch · 90D

-$9,545

Depth = mark-to-market P/L90-day trace

Current Positions

open holdings · marked to market

Market	Outcome	Size	Avg Entry	Current	Value	Unrealized P/L
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	37,169.4	24.2¢	46.5¢	$17,284	+$8,283
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	31,999.95	14.3¢	13.9¢	$4,432	-$146
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	29,999.74	0.5¢	2.6¢	$795	+$645
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	29,869.77	0.5¢	0.9¢	$254	+$105
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	24,702.65	84.3¢	95.1¢	$23,492	+$2,664
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	20,000	5.5¢	9.3¢	$1,850	+$740
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	19,999.98	11.3¢	12.6¢	$2,510	+$258
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	19,411.6	3.6¢	2.5¢	$476	-$227
US strike on Colombia by December 31?	Yes	15,805.2	17.1¢	24.0¢	$3,793	+$1,091
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	14,999.97	7.9¢	9.4¢	$1,417	+$228
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10,000	1.7¢	2.1¢	$205	+$35
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?	Yes	9,999.99	12.0¢	10.5¢	$1,050	-$150
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	9,999.99	2.5¢	1.9¢	$195	-$55
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	9,999.96	1.6¢	1.3¢	$125	-$35
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	8,621.61	92.2¢	94.5¢	$8,143	+$194
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	8,209.63	1.2¢	1.5¢	$119	+$21
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	8,000	8.9¢	13.2¢	$1,052	+$343
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	7,681.85	14.0¢	8.0¢	$615	-$461
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	7,600	0.9¢	0.9¢	$65	-$4
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	7,265.2	2.1¢	0.9¢	$69	-$82
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	7,000	0.5¢	0.4¢	$25	-$11
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	6,000.03	76.7¢	93.5¢	$5,610	+$1,010
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	5,500	5.6¢	3.1¢	$173	-$135
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	4,000	10.7¢	6.3¢	$250	-$178
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	3,874.87	87.0¢	100.0¢	$3,873	+$502
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	2,114.33	89.0¢	99.6¢	$2,105	+$223
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June?	Yes	1,500	11.0¢	1.2¢	$18	-$147
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	953.97	11.0¢	12.0¢	$114	+$10
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	Yes	1.35	34.5¢	0.7¢	$0	-$0

Trade History

grouped by position · click to expand fills

	Market	Outcome	Avg Entry	Avg Exit	Bought	Sold	Last
▸	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	11.0¢	—	958.96	0	Jun 23, 2026
▸	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	13.9¢	—	19,999.99	0	Jun 22, 2026
▸	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	Yes	—	27.3¢	0	5,999.95	Jun 21, 2026
▸	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	94.0¢	—	2,000	0	Jun 21, 2026
▸	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	0.9¢	—	7,600	0	Jun 21, 2026
▸	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?	Yes	12.0¢	—	9,999.99	0	Jun 21, 2026
▸	Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	34.6¢	94.7¢	4,689.98	4,699.97	Jun 21, 2026
▸	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	Yes	—	88.6¢	0	4,193.32	Jun 20, 2026
▸	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	57.2¢	—	165.22	0	Jun 19, 2026