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0xd75a...fdec
0xd75af87133fc14de68cd83a9e8c5d999fa49fdec
6.7
/ 10 · 90D
Humpback
Class · est. size $43.4K
30-Day Window5.9 SIG
- Edge / share
- +10.2¢ · 33 resolved
- Hit rate
- 42.5%
- Net P/L · Vol
- $12.4K / $18.3K
- % return
- +64.1%
- Observations
- 40
90-Day Window6.7 SIG
- Edge / share
- +9.0¢ · 97 resolved
- Hit rate
- 47.6%
- Net P/L · Vol
- $13K / $43.4K
- % return
- +28.3%
- Observations
- 105
Dive Profile
Net Catch · 90D
+$185
Depth = mark-to-market P/L90-day trace
Current Positions
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg Entry | Current | Value | Unrealized P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | 4,079.11 | 93.0¢ | 97.5¢ | $3,977 | +$185 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 3,316.63 | 68.1¢ | 86.5¢ | $2,869 | +$610 |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? | No | 2,683.29 | 95.9¢ | 96.9¢ | $2,599 | +$25 |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Yes | 1,056.06 | 50.5¢ | 46.5¢ | $491 | -$43 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | No | 857.79 | 95.0¢ | 97.7¢ | $838 | +$23 |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? | No | 809.37 | 96.8¢ | 97.2¢ | $786 | +$3 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 259.43 | 98.7¢ | 99.4¢ | $258 | +$2 |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 236.91 | 17.4¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$41 |
| Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 231.37 | 27.3¢ | 17.5¢ | $40 | -$23 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | Yes | 222.2 | 30.0¢ | 30.5¢ | $68 | +$1 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | Yes | 196.17 | 39.0¢ | 24.5¢ | $48 | -$28 |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Yes | 128.76 | 13.0¢ | 37.1¢ | $48 | +$31 |
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? | No | 122.52 | 67.5¢ | 81.5¢ | $100 | +$17 |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 117.05 | 39.2¢ | 38.4¢ | $45 | -$1 |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | Yes | 100 | 62.8¢ | 26.5¢ | $27 | -$36 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 97.04 | 18.2¢ | 1.5¢ | $1 | -$16 |
| Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? | Yes | 26.05 | 40.0¢ | 54.5¢ | $14 | +$4 |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 9.1 | 14.1¢ | 1.3¢ | $0 | -$1 |
Trade History
| Market | Outcome | Avg Entry | Avg Exit | Bought | Sold | Last | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | Yes | — | 6.0¢ | 0 | 555.5 | Jun 23, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 52.0¢ | 45.9¢ | 14.17 | 126.06 | Jun 23, 2026 |
| ▸ | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | Yes | — | 1.9¢ | 0 | 1,000.33 | Jun 23, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? | No | 91.0¢ | 90.0¢ | 11.1 | 11.1 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? | No | 95.9¢ | — | 2,683.29 | 0 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? | No | 96.8¢ | — | 809.37 | 0 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 98.7¢ | — | 259.43 | 0 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? | No | 64.8¢ | 9.0¢ | 192.31 | 54.03 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? | No | 27.7¢ | 26.0¢ | 127.14 | 127.14 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? | Yes | 40.0¢ | — | 26.05 | 0 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | No | 95.0¢ | — | 857.79 | 0 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | Yes | 51.0¢ | 49.9¢ | 20.46 | 20.46 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | Yes | 30.0¢ | — | 222.2 | 0 | Jun 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Yes | 36.1¢ | 21.4¢ | 2,100.09 | 6,703.86 | Jun 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | 93.0¢ | 91.0¢ | 4,107.71 | 28.6 | Jun 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 80.0¢ | — | 109.03 | 0 | Jun 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? | Yes | 56.2¢ | 48.1¢ | 703.5 | 26.98 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | Yes | 62.8¢ | — | 100 | 0 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| ▸ | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | — | 8.5¢ | 0 | 3,307.34 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? | Yes | 69.3¢ | 67.0¢ | 33.3 | 33.29 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? | No | 21.0¢ | — | 111.1 | 0 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | Yes | 43.4¢ | — | 95.77 | 0 | Jun 16, 2026 |