◆ Contact Dossier
@eightpenguins
0x3c593aeb73ebdadbc9ce76d4264a6a2af4011766
4.5
/ 10 · 90D
Narwhal
Class · est. size $397K
90-Day Window4.5 SIG
- Edge / share
- +1.7¢ · 66 resolved
- Hit rate
- 44.4%
- Net P/L · Vol
- -$61K / $397K
- % return
- -17.0%
- Observations
- 108
Dive Profile
Return · 90D
+37%
Hypothetical return if you’d copied every trade this wallet made starting from $100, staking 1% of your running balance on each — shown as % gain/loss vs that $100. Scrub the curve to read the markets that settled on any step in the Settlement Log below.
Settlement LogOct 5
2W · 0L2 markets
MarketEntry → ExitReturn
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No64.5¢ → 84.0¢+30%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes65.5¢ → 83.5¢+28%
% return · $100 start · 1% per trade90-day trace
Current Positions
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg Entry | Current | Value | Unrealized P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 50,622.41 | 74.7¢ | 85.5¢ | $43,282 | +$5,455 (+14.4%) |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 29,736.25 | 30.4¢ | 22.5¢ | $6,691 | -$2,349 (-26.0%) |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | No | 25,563.88 | 36.6¢ | 60.5¢ | $15,466 | +$6,120 (+65.5%) |
| Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | Yes | 18,886.97 | 18.6¢ | 9.5¢ | $1,794 | -$1,716 (-48.9%) |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | No | 15,895.61 | 58.1¢ | 67.5¢ | $10,730 | +$1,492 (+16.2%) |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 15,554.98 | 64.8¢ | 64.5¢ | $10,033 | -$56 (-0.6%) |
| Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | No | 12,881.61 | 33.0¢ | 32.5¢ | $4,187 | -$64 (-1.5%) |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31? | Yes | 11,518.74 | 13.8¢ | 3.4¢ | $386 | -$1,202 (-75.7%) |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Yes | 10,178.17 | 31.8¢ | 60.3¢ | $6,132 | +$2,894 (+89.4%) |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | Yes | 8,765.8 | 14.5¢ | 13.5¢ | $1,183 | -$87 (-6.8%) |
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? | No | 6,925.43 | 73.9¢ | 97.3¢ | $6,735 | +$1,620 (+31.7%) |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 4,727.08 | 53.9¢ | 28.7¢ | $1,359 | -$1,188 (-46.6%) |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Yes | 4,566.97 | 40.4¢ | 10.5¢ | $480 | -$1,367 (-74.0%) |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31? | Yes | 4,452.71 | 30.4¢ | 14.5¢ | $646 | -$710 (-52.4%) |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 3,295.25 | 57.3¢ | 66.5¢ | $2,190 | +$300 (+15.9%) |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 3,232.54 | 54.8¢ | 25.5¢ | $824 | -$948 (-53.5%) |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | Yes | 3,119.26 | 33.9¢ | 12.5¢ | $390 | -$667 (-63.1%) |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 2,432.24 | 17.3¢ | 0.1¢ | $4 | -$417 (-99.1%) |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15? | Yes | 2,139.77 | 6.0¢ | 8.5¢ | $182 | +$53 (+41.7%) |
| Spain snap election called by October 31? | Yes | 1,558.73 | 47.7¢ | 99.8¢ | $1,555 | +$812 (+109.3%) |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher? | Yes | 1,554 | 90.5¢ | 90.5¢ | $1,407 | +$1 (+0.1%) |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher? | No | 1,300.12 | 93.5¢ | 93.1¢ | $1,210 | -$5 (-0.4%) |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31? | Yes | 1,133 | 13.0¢ | 17.5¢ | $198 | +$51 (+34.6%) |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,110.92 | 58.0¢ | 19.5¢ | $217 | -$428 (-66.4%) |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be TIME Person of the Year 2026? | Yes | 920.64 | 6.0¢ | 8.5¢ | $78 | +$23 (+41.7%) |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? | Yes | 741.29 | 56.0¢ | 5.5¢ | $41 | -$374 (-90.2%) |
| No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27? | No | 621.06 | 71.0¢ | 17.5¢ | $109 | -$332 (-75.4%) |
| Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? | Yes | 443.99 | 62.0¢ | 20.5¢ | $91 | -$184 (-66.9%) |
| Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | Yes | 404.86 | 19.8¢ | 9.6¢ | $39 | -$41 (-51.5%) |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? | No | 237.43 | 85.0¢ | 84.5¢ | $201 | -$1 (-0.6%) |
| Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime? | No | 142.55 | 55.0¢ | 70.5¢ | $100 | +$22 (+28.2%) |
Trade History
| Market | Outcome | Avg Entry | Avg Exit | Bought | Sold | P/L | Last | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?brazil presidential election | Yes | 64.6¢ | 83.5¢ | 6,639.55 | 6,639.55 | +$1,198 (+27.6%) | Oct 5, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?brazil presidential election | No | 64.0¢ | 84.0¢ | 11,109.95 | 11,109.95 | +$2,171 (+30.3%) | Oct 5, 2026 |
| ▸ | IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by july 31 20260624040209014 | Yes | 2.3¢ | — | 4,750.31 | 0 | — | Oct 5, 2026 |
| ▸ | IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by july 31 20260624040209014 | Yes | 15.0¢ | — | 352.94 | 0 | — | Oct 5, 2026 |
| ▸ | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?will mitch mcconnell resign from the senate before his term ends | No | 65.8¢ | 94.0¢ | 1,336.42 | 1,336.41 | +$374 (+42.6%) | Oct 4, 2026 |
| ▸ | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15?us iran hormuz agreement byptptpt 20260803235957575 | Yes | 6.0¢ | — | 2,139.77 | 0 | — | Oct 4, 2026 |
| ▸ | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?us announces end of iranian blockade byptptpt 20260713152715080 | Yes | 26.0¢ | — | 21,001.39 | 0 | — | Oct 4, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?who will be the next prime minister of israel after the next election | No | 64.9¢ | — | 15,554.98 | 0 | — | Oct 4, 2026 |
| ▸ | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?us iran hormuz agreement byptptpt 20260803235957575 | Yes | 13.0¢ | — | 1,133 | 0 | — | Oct 4, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?kansas senate election winner | No | 33.0¢ | — | 12,881.61 | 0 | — | Oct 4, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?brazil presidential election first round winner | Yes | 69.0¢ | — | 316 | 0 | — | Oct 3, 2026 |
| ▸ | Spain snap election called by October 31?spain snap election called in 2026 | Yes | 47.7¢ | — | 1,558.73 | 0 | — | Oct 3, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be TIME Person of the Year 2026?time person of the year 2026 | Yes | 6.0¢ | — | 920.64 | 0 | — | Oct 3, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?1 searched movie on google 2026 20260730181459 | No | — | 86.0¢ | 0 | 354.16 | — | Oct 3, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?which company has the best ai model end of october | Yes | 57.3¢ | — | 3,295.25 | 0 | — | Oct 2, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?venezuela leader end of 2026 | Yes | — | 25.0¢ | 0 | 2,022 | — | Oct 2, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?which company has the best ai model end of october | No | 58.1¢ | — | 15,895.61 | 0 | — | Oct 2, 2026 |
| ▸ | Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?israel and lebanon normalize relations before 2027 | No | — | 95.0¢ | 0 | 123.54 | — | Oct 2, 2026 |
| ▸ | Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?israel accuses iranproxies of plane stabbing incident by oct 31 | Yes | 18.6¢ | — | 18,886.97 | 0 | — | Oct 2, 2026 |
| ▸ | Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?any of the cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime | No | 55.0¢ | — | 142.55 | 0 | — | Oct 1, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?venezuela leader end of 2026 | No | — | 31.3¢ | 0 | 879.72 | — | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?iran oman hormuz management agreement byptptpt 20260804222725871 | No | 63.1¢ | 87.3¢ | 5,150.97 | 5,150.97 | +$1,249 (+38.4%) | Oct 1, 2026 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?us iran ceasefire continues throughptptpt | Yes | 71.5¢ | 77.0¢ | 5,674.5 | 5,674.5 | +$313 (+7.7%) | Sep 30, 2026 | |
| ▸ | Will Trump meet with Javier Milei in September 2026?who will trump meet with in september 20260826 | No | 34.1¢ | — | 216.69 | 0 | — | Sep 30, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 30, 2026?openai resumes us chatgpt pro 20x signups byptptpt | Yes | 27.3¢ | 100.0¢ | 1,777 | 0 | +$1,293 (+267.0%) | Sep 30, 2026 |
| ▸ | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?us announces end of iranian blockade byptptpt 20260713152715080 | Yes | 14.5¢ | — | 8,765.8 | 0 | — | Sep 29, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?next claude opus model humanitys last exam debut 20261231 | Yes | 90.5¢ | — | 1,554 | 0 | — | Sep 26, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?next claude opus model humanitys last exam debut 20261231 | No | 93.5¢ | — | 1,300.12 | 0 | — | Sep 26, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?will reza pahlavi enter iran by june 30 | Yes | 6.6¢ | 4.0¢ | 55,009.15 | 821.13 | -$854 (-23.6%) | Sep 26, 2026 |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?iran oman hormuz management agreement byptptpt 20260804222725871 | Yes | 40.1¢ | -0.0¢ | 2,708.98 | 2,708.98 | -$1,085 (-100.0%) | Sep 22, 2026 | |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?iran oman hormuz management agreement byptptpt 20260804222725871 | No | 73.6¢ | 100.0¢ | 4,374.11 | 4,374.11 | +$1,153 (+35.8%) | Sep 22, 2026 | |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?which party will gain most seats in russian parliamentary election | Yes | 92.5¢ | 93.5¢ | 23,552.25 | 23,552.25 | +$230 (+1.1%) | Sep 21, 2026 | |
| Will Trump say "Alaska" this week?what will trump say this week september 14 september 20 20260920 | Yes | 16.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 5.56 | 5.56 | +$5 (+525.0%) | Sep 21, 2026 | |
| Will Obsession be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?1 searched movie on google 2026 20260730181459 | No | 82.0¢ | 66.2¢ | 1,111 | 1,111 | -$176 (-19.3%) | Sep 21, 2026 | |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?clarity act signed into law in 2026 | Yes | 9.6¢ | 5.7¢ | 34,329.07 | 34,329.07 | -$1,347 (-40.8%) | Sep 20, 2026 | |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?republican presidential nominee 2028 | Yes | 39.1¢ | 50.2¢ | 1,285.73 | 1,285.73 | +$143 (+28.4%) | Sep 20, 2026 | |
| Israel closes its airspace by September 30?israel closes its airspace by | Yes | 56.9¢ | 94.0¢ | 3,242.7 | 3,242.7 | +$1,204 (+65.3%) | Sep 20, 2026 | |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?us x iran effective ceasefire begins byptptpt 2 week pause | No | 61.4¢ | 50.4¢ | 5,241.33 | 5,241.33 | -$576 (-17.9%) | Sep 18, 2026 | |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?us x iran effective ceasefire begins byptptpt 2 week pause | Yes | 76.4¢ | 100.0¢ | 7,071.67 | 7,071.67 | +$1,666 (+30.8%) | Sep 18, 2026 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?which company has the best ai model end of september 20260717143435868 | Yes | 73.8¢ | 97.5¢ | 5,481.76 | 5,481.76 | +$1,298 (+32.1%) | Sep 17, 2026 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?fed decision in september 762 | Yes | 46.6¢ | 58.6¢ | 37,235.86 | 37,235.86 | +$4,458 (+25.7%) | Sep 16, 2026 | |
| Will no one dissent the September Fed decision?how many dissent at the september fed meeting | Yes | 30.8¢ | 100.0¢ | 1,482.73 | 1,482.73 | +$1,026 (+225.0%) | Sep 16, 2026 | |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?next prime minister of sweden | Yes | 70.0¢ | 64.1¢ | 1,111 | 1,111 | -$66 (-8.4%) | Sep 12, 2026 | |
| Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?next prime minister of sweden | No | 72.0¢ | 64.1¢ | 3,739.29 | 3,739.29 | -$296 (-11.0%) | Sep 12, 2026 | |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?us iran final nuclear deal by 20260621201254412 | Yes | 29.0¢ | 15.6¢ | 11,663.73 | 11,663.73 | -$1,559 (-46.1%) | Sep 11, 2026 | |
| Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs B8 (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest: European Qualifier Playoffscs2 1win b8 | 1WIN | 68.1¢ | 100.0¢ | 22,222 | 22,222 | +$7,088 (+46.8%) | Sep 10, 2026 | |
| Will "Death of the Pastor's Wife: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week?what will be the top global netflix show this week 20260908 | Yes | 23.9¢ | 100.0¢ | 87 | 87 | +$66 (+318.1%) | Sep 8, 2026 | |
| Will "The Gentlemen: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week?what will be the top us netflix show this week 20260908 | No | 80.3¢ | 100.0¢ | 230 | 230 | +$45 (+24.5%) | Sep 8, 2026 | |
| Will "Danny Go!: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week?what will be the top us netflix show this week 20260901 | No | 99.6¢ | 100.0¢ | 614.22 | 614.22 | +$2 (+0.4%) | Sep 1, 2026 | |
| Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" be the top US Netflix movie this week?what will be the top us netflix movie this week 20260901 | Yes | 22.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 219.48 | 219.48 | +$171 (+354.5%) | Sep 1, 2026 | |
| Will "The Whisper Man (2026)" be the top US Netflix movie this week?what will be the top us netflix movie this week 20260901 | No | 26.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 1,111 | 1,111 | +$822 (+284.6%) | Sep 1, 2026 | |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?next mythos class model released by | Yes | 26.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 3.18 | 3.18 | +$2 (+284.6%) | Sep 1, 2026 | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D Housebalance of power 2026 midterms | Yes | 44.0¢ | 48.0¢ | 5,555 | 5,555 | +$222 (+9.1%) | Aug 30, 2026 | |
| Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026?google maps renames lake ontario to lake america in 2026 | Yes | 26.7¢ | 100.0¢ | 3,270 | 3,270 | +$2,397 (+274.5%) | Aug 30, 2026 | |
| Dota 2: Iron Wing vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Playoffsdota2 ironwi boombo | BoomBoys | 59.6¢ | 100.0¢ | 3,992.89 | 3,992.89 | +$1,612 (+67.7%) | Aug 21, 2026 | |
| Dota 2: Iron Wing vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Playoffsdota2 ironwi boombo | Iron Wing | 41.2¢ | 18.8¢ | 24,745.13 | 24,745.13 | -$5,549 (-54.4%) | Aug 21, 2026 | |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15?iran full airspace closure byptptpt 20260625195253028 | No | 91.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 1,686.05 | 1,686.05 | +$152 (+9.9%) | Aug 16, 2026 | |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?us x iran effective ceasfire byptptpt 2 week pause 20260715194822042 | Yes | 34.1¢ | 52.8¢ | 27,004.15 | 27,004.15 | +$5,037 (+54.7%) | Aug 12, 2026 | |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?fed decision in september 762 | Yes | 42.2¢ | 60.8¢ | 48,201.11 | 48,201.11 | +$8,971 (+44.1%) | Aug 9, 2026 | |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?pete hegseth out as secretary of defense by december 31 | No | 57.1¢ | 80.0¢ | 1,665 | 1,665 | +$381 (+40.0%) | Aug 6, 2026 | |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?israel x iran ceasefire continues throughptptpt 20260716224448963 | Yes | 77.8¢ | 100.0¢ | 15,805 | 15,805 | +$3,506 (+28.5%) | Aug 5, 2026 | |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?who will trump publicly insult by july 31 20260626210612709 | No | 67.7¢ | 100.0¢ | 4,216.93 | 4,216.93 | +$1,361 (+47.6%) | Aug 5, 2026 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 31 | No | 97.7¢ | 100.0¢ | 2,349.19 | 2,349.19 | +$54 (+2.4%) | Aug 4, 2026 | |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?israel x iran ceasefire continues throughptptpt 20260716224448963 | Yes | 59.0¢ | 66.0¢ | 1,221.16 | 1,221.16 | +$86 (+12.0%) | Aug 3, 2026 | |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by | No | 62.0¢ | 81.6¢ | 5,554.99 | 5,554.99 | +$1,087 (+31.6%) | Aug 1, 2026 | |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?next round of us iran peace talks byptptpt 20260623022722982 | Yes | 56.0¢ | 10.3¢ | 5,555 | 5,555 | -$2,540 (-81.7%) | Aug 1, 2026 | |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?iran announces withdrawal from mou negotiations byptptpt 20260622191732319 | No | 64.2¢ | 77.8¢ | 8,736.25 | 8,736.25 | +$1,186 (+21.2%) | Aug 1, 2026 | |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?mojtaba khamenei public appearance by | Yes | 9.8¢ | 12.3¢ | 9,773.24 | 9,773.24 | +$236 (+24.6%) | Aug 1, 2026 | |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?mojtaba khamenei public appearance by | No | 72.9¢ | 92.3¢ | 15,304.1 | 15,304.1 | +$2,965 (+26.6%) | Aug 1, 2026 | |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?fed decision in july 181 | Yes | 81.8¢ | 77.2¢ | 30,773.67 | 30,773.67 | -$1,407 (-5.6%) | Jul 29, 2026 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?fed decision in july 181 | No | 82.5¢ | 79.1¢ | 2,167.31 | 2,167.31 | -$73 (-4.1%) | Jul 29, 2026 | |
| US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?us announces halt in iran offensive operations byptptpt 20260718015003096 | No | 49.6¢ | 3.0¢ | 17,709.89 | 17,709.89 | -$8,242 (-93.9%) | Jul 27, 2026 | |
| Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?houthis successfully target shipping byptptpt 20260708165455691 | Yes | 38.5¢ | 63.9¢ | 11,068.03 | 11,068.03 | +$2,814 (+66.0%) | Jul 23, 2026 | |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by | Yes | 15.5¢ | 18.7¢ | 17,616.26 | 17,616.26 | +$564 (+20.6%) | Jul 20, 2026 | |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027?china x philippines military clash before 2027 | No | 78.5¢ | 56.0¢ | 9,951.82 | 9,951.82 | -$2,241 (-28.7%) | Jul 20, 2026 | |
| Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?world cup golden boot winner | No | 92.2¢ | 100.0¢ | 1,615.15 | 1,615.15 | +$126 (+8.5%) | Jul 20, 2026 | |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancefifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 more markets | Spain | 91.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 11,110.97 | 11,110.97 | +$1,000 (+9.9%) | Jul 19, 2026 | |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?iran military action against a gulf state onptptpt 20260708212328295 | No | 43.8¢ | 78.8¢ | 7,284.16 | 7,284.16 | +$2,552 (+80.0%) | Jul 18, 2026 | |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?iran announces withdrawal from mou negotiations byptptpt 20260622191732319 | No | 77.1¢ | 88.8¢ | 9,999 | 9,999 | +$1,161 (+15.1%) | Jul 18, 2026 | |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?iran military action against a gulf state onptptpt 20260708212328295 | Yes | 26.3¢ | 92.3¢ | 6,596.62 | 6,596.62 | +$4,356 (+251.4%) | Jul 18, 2026 | |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?mojtaba khamenei public appearance by | No | 83.8¢ | 92.1¢ | 8,202.09 | 8,202.09 | +$685 (+10.0%) | Jul 16, 2026 | |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?mojtaba khamenei public appearance by | Yes | 10.2¢ | 5.2¢ | 7,775.25 | 7,775.25 | -$393 (-49.4%) | Jul 16, 2026 | |
| Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?us announces blockade on iran byptptpt 20260622191049039 | Yes | 20.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 308.56 | 308.56 | +$247 (+400.0%) | Jul 13, 2026 | |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?what price will wti hit in july 2026 | Yes | 49.6¢ | 48.7¢ | 3,709.5 | 3,709.5 | -$35 (-1.9%) | Jul 13, 2026 | |
| Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?iran commits not to attack ships in hormuz by sunday 20260710215434348 | No | 81.8¢ | 100.0¢ | 2,981.63 | 2,981.63 | +$544 (+22.3%) | Jul 13, 2026 | |
| Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610 | No | 67.0¢ | 62.3¢ | 4,443.96 | 4,443.96 | -$209 (-7.0%) | Jul 10, 2026 | |
| Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?who will attend us iran signing ceremony 20260615232202457 | No | 90.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 436.22 | 436.22 | +$44 (+11.1%) | Jul 8, 2026 | |
| Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?who will attend us iran signing ceremony 20260615232202457 | No | 88.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 479.81 | 479.81 | +$58 (+13.6%) | Jul 8, 2026 | |
| Will "Worst Neighbor Ever" be the top US Netflix show this week?what will be the top us netflix show this week 20260701141127295 | No | 42.5¢ | 0.0¢ | 1,110 | 1,110 | -$472 (-100.0%) | Jul 7, 2026 | |
| Will "Worst Neighbor Ever" be the top US Netflix show this week?what will be the top us netflix show this week 20260701141127295 | Yes | 66.7¢ | 100.0¢ | 688.84 | 688.84 | +$229 (+49.8%) | Jul 7, 2026 | |
| Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the top US Netflix movie this week?what will be the top us netflix movie this week 20260630200824484 | No | 89.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 2,222 | 2,222 | +$244 (+12.4%) | Jul 7, 2026 | |
| Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?avg of ships transiting strait of hormuz end of june | Yes | 39.6¢ | 100.0¢ | 1,211.04 | 1,211.04 | +$731 (+152.5%) | Jul 7, 2026 | |
| Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?will ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 | No | 42.6¢ | 100.0¢ | 1,377.06 | 1,377.06 | +$790 (+134.5%) | Jul 7, 2026 | |
| Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?will ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 | Yes | 24.1¢ | 16.8¢ | 17,274.41 | 17,274.41 | -$1,267 (-30.4%) | Jul 7, 2026 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of june | No | 91.8¢ | 100.0¢ | 53,916.73 | 53,916.73 | +$4,429 (+9.0%) | Jul 7, 2026 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of june | Yes | 23.0¢ | 0.0¢ | 4,443.97 | 4,443.97 | -$1,022 (-100.0%) | Jul 7, 2026 | |
| Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7?iran successfully targets shipping byptptpt 20260629202434609 | Yes | 49.5¢ | 100.0¢ | 4,114.06 | 4,114.06 | +$2,077 (+102.0%) | Jul 7, 2026 | |
| Iran successfully targets shipping by July 31?iran successfully targets shipping byptptpt 20260629202434609 | Yes | 59.9¢ | 100.0¢ | 500 | 500 | +$200 (+66.8%) | Jul 7, 2026 | |
| Iran successfully targets shipping by July 15?iran successfully targets shipping byptptpt 20260629202434609 | Yes | 54.8¢ | 100.0¢ | 180.44 | 180.44 | +$82 (+82.4%) | Jul 7, 2026 | |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by | Yes | 48.0¢ | 16.0¢ | 7,268.45 | 7,268.45 | -$2,323 (-66.6%) | Jul 6, 2026 | |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?peru presidential election winner | Yes | 55.0¢ | 65.7¢ | 2,221.99 | 2,221.99 | +$239 (+19.5%) | Jul 6, 2026 | |
| Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?which countries will recognize israel by june 30 | Yes | 30.5¢ | 4.2¢ | 1,009.98 | 1,009.98 | -$266 (-86.3%) | Jul 6, 2026 | |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?what iranian demands will trump agree to by june 30 | No | 96.2¢ | 100.0¢ | 6,043.05 | 6,043.05 | +$231 (+4.0%) | Jul 4, 2026 | |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?will ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 | Yes | 37.5¢ | 50.2¢ | 5,850.73 | 5,850.73 | +$745 (+34.0%) | Jul 2, 2026 | |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?claude fable 5 restored for us customers by 20260613193753196 | Yes | 62.8¢ | 65.6¢ | 2,094.99 | 2,094.99 | +$58 (+4.4%) | Jul 1, 2026 | |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by | Yes | 19.2¢ | 15.1¢ | 31,981.36 | 31,981.36 | -$1,303 (-21.2%) | Jul 1, 2026 | |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by june 30 | No | 94.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 8,887.98 | 8,887.98 | +$533 (+6.4%) | Jul 1, 2026 | |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by june 30 | Yes | 34.6¢ | 26.9¢ | 91,414.84 | 91,414.84 | -$7,117 (-22.5%) | Jul 1, 2026 | |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026?us iran final nuclear deal by 20260621201254412 | No | 99.1¢ | 100.0¢ | 11,482.35 | 11,482.35 | +$99 (+0.9%) | Jul 1, 2026 | |
| Netanyahu out by June 30?netanyahu out before 2027 | No | 86.0¢ | 96.4¢ | 5,554.91 | 5,554.91 | +$578 (+12.1%) | Jul 1, 2026 | |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?israel x iran permanent peace deal by | Yes | 13.8¢ | 9.1¢ | 40,181.67 | 40,181.67 | -$1,881 (-33.8%) | Jul 1, 2026 | |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?what iranian demands will trump agree to by june 30 | No | 95.2¢ | 100.0¢ | 17,277.7 | 17,277.7 | +$829 (+5.0%) | Jul 1, 2026 | |
| Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27?iran successfully targets shipping onptptpt 20260625225210236 | Yes | 61.9¢ | 100.0¢ | 2,053.45 | 2,053.45 | +$783 (+61.6%) | Jun 28, 2026 | |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?will ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 | Yes | 21.0¢ | 6.8¢ | 5,555 | 5,555 | -$789 (-67.7%) | Jun 23, 2026 | |
| Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?what iranian demands will trump agree to by june 30 | Yes | 55.2¢ | 100.0¢ | 7,180.53 | 7,180.53 | +$3,216 (+81.1%) | Jun 22, 2026 | |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?us x iran diplomatic meeting by 329 | Yes | 79.7¢ | 100.0¢ | 3,332.97 | 3,332.97 | +$678 (+25.5%) | Jun 21, 2026 | |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?us x iran diplomatic meeting by 329 | Yes | 45.8¢ | 83.5¢ | 666 | 666 | +$251 (+82.4%) | Jun 20, 2026 | |
| Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?who will attend the next us x iran diplomatic meeting | No | 11.7¢ | 4.3¢ | 1,343.8 | 1,343.8 | -$100 (-63.4%) | Jun 20, 2026 | |
| Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?who will sign uptspt x iran deal 20260612002238373 | Yes | 43.4¢ | 100.0¢ | 2,210.57 | 2,210.57 | +$1,252 (+130.6%) | Jun 18, 2026 | |
| US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?us and iran sign an agreement byptptpt 20260611221049850 | Yes | 5.5¢ | 93.8¢ | 10,315.06 | 10,315.06 | +$9,105 (+1590.5%) | Jun 18, 2026 | |
| Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?will trump physically sign us x iran deal 20260615192526331 | Yes | 70.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 333 | 333 | +$100 (+42.9%) | Jun 18, 2026 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?us x iran permanent peace deal by | Yes | 50.7¢ | 44.0¢ | 17,876.53 | 17,876.53 | -$1,205 (-13.3%) | Jun 18, 2026 |