◆ Contact Dossier
@KrackenSruster
0xd44e974a3edb232aa4aedbdcc59792b76a5f67e2
8.4
/ 10 · 90D
Sperm Whale
Class · est. size $807.7K
30-Day Window5.2 SIG
- Edge / share
- +3.8¢ · 48 resolved
- Hit rate
- 71.0%
- Net P/L · Vol
- $44.1K / $320.9K
- % return
- +3.7%
- Observations
- 62
90-Day Window8.4 SIG
- Edge / share
- +10.7¢ · 148 resolved
- Hit rate
- 73.1%
- Net P/L · Vol
- $104.5K / $807.7K
- % return
- +8.9%
- Observations
- 175
Dive Profile
Net Catch · 90D
+$78,966
Depth = mark-to-market P/L90-day trace
Current Positions
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg Entry | Current | Value | Unrealized P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | No | 39,722.05 | 57.2¢ | 46.5¢ | $18,471 | -$4,261 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 30,504.55 | 60.0¢ | 86.5¢ | $26,386 | +$8,082 |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? | No | 28,013.71 | 72.0¢ | 84.0¢ | $23,532 | +$3,369 |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | No | 26,966 | 68.5¢ | 84.5¢ | $22,786 | +$4,307 |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? | No | 23,429.18 | 92.6¢ | 98.6¢ | $23,101 | +$1,397 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | No | 23,007.77 | 63.5¢ | 70.5¢ | $16,220 | +$1,612 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? | No | 22,997.51 | 79.0¢ | 83.5¢ | $19,203 | +$1,044 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | No | 21,213.86 | 71.4¢ | 76.5¢ | $16,229 | +$1,087 |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | No | 16,806.74 | 94.2¢ | 98.8¢ | $16,605 | +$778 |
| Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? | No | 12,755.85 | 53.9¢ | 99.4¢ | $12,679 | +$5,801 |
| Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026? | No | 11,109.27 | 89.6¢ | 95.4¢ | $10,598 | +$642 |
| Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? | No | 9,184.67 | 54.8¢ | 84.0¢ | $7,715 | +$2,682 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | No | 9,023.96 | 67.4¢ | 70.5¢ | $6,362 | +$276 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | No | 8,003.45 | 47.9¢ | 54.5¢ | $4,362 | +$531 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | No | 6,893.87 | 77.4¢ | 98.6¢ | $6,797 | +$1,463 |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | No | 6,318.03 | 13.7¢ | 8.0¢ | $502 | -$361 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | No | 6,105.89 | 94.0¢ | 98.9¢ | $6,039 | +$300 |
| U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? | No | 5,977.52 | 65.9¢ | 99.3¢ | $5,936 | +$1,997 |
| Will Trump and Putin not meet? | Yes | 4,903.25 | 59.9¢ | 61.5¢ | $3,016 | +$77 |
| Trump meets with Putin by December 31? | No | 4,754.31 | 60.0¢ | 62.0¢ | $2,948 | +$93 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? | No | 4,560.36 | 84.2¢ | 99.2¢ | $4,524 | +$683 |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? | Yes | 3,088.8 | 77.8¢ | 80.5¢ | $2,486 | +$82 |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31? | No | 2,360.39 | 76.9¢ | 82.0¢ | $1,936 | +$121 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? | No | 2,208.63 | 24.4¢ | 35.0¢ | $773 | +$233 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | No | 1,992.29 | 48.1¢ | 64.0¢ | $1,275 | +$316 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | Yes | 1,500.01 | 26.0¢ | 29.5¢ | $443 | +$53 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Yes | 1,000.01 | 6.0¢ | 6.5¢ | $65 | +$5 |
| Trump meets with Putin by September 30? | No | 274.6 | 75.0¢ | 89.0¢ | $244 | +$38 |
| US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? | No | 99.35 | 83.1¢ | 86.5¢ | $86 | +$3 |
Trade History
| Market | Outcome | Avg Entry | Avg Exit | Bought | Sold | Last | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | No | 71.4¢ | 82.0¢ | 21,413.86 | 200 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Yes | 7.5¢ | 22.4¢ | 2,000 | 11,014.68 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | No | 48.1¢ | — | 1,992.29 | 0 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? | No | 24.5¢ | — | 2,208.63 | 0 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | No | 13.7¢ | — | 6,318.03 | 0 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Trump and Putin not meet? | Yes | 59.9¢ | — | 4,875.88 | 0 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Trump meets with Putin by December 31? | No | 60.1¢ | — | 4,742.18 | 0 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31? | No | 76.9¢ | — | 2,353.24 | 0 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | No | 52.5¢ | 19.6¢ | 2,945.71 | 2,945.71 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | Yes | 34.4¢ | 27.3¢ | 4,125.25 | 2,625.24 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026? | No | 95.7¢ | 91.0¢ | 1,731.5 | 55 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? | No | 78.4¢ | — | 12,990.51 | 0 | Jun 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? | No | — | 88.5¢ | 0 | 22,151.33 | Jun 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? | No | — | 98.8¢ | 0 | 35.8 | Jun 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | No | 49.5¢ | 50.1¢ | 7,785.82 | 15,389.34 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? | No | 24.1¢ | 18.1¢ | 26,541.49 | 18,297.68 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| ▸ | Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | No | — | 98.8¢ | 0 | 32.7 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| ▸ | Trump meets with Putin by September 30? | No | 75.0¢ | — | 274.6 | 0 | Jun 15, 2026 |
| ▸ | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | No | 61.0¢ | — | 997.12 | 0 | Jun 15, 2026 |
| ▸ | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? | No | — | 99.0¢ | 0 | 494.89 | Jun 15, 2026 |
| ▸ | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? | No | — | 90.0¢ | 0 | 63 | Jun 15, 2026 |
| ▸ | UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) | Yes | 27.0¢ | 50.0¢ | 999.99 | 999.99 | Jun 15, 2026 |
| ▸ | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Yes | — | 94.8¢ | 0 | 7,315.46 | Jun 15, 2026 |
| ▸ | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | No | 26.6¢ | 18.8¢ | 6,937.66 | 7,136.02 | Jun 15, 2026 |
| ▸ | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | — | 95.0¢ | 0 | 5,293.27 | Jun 14, 2026 |