Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
View on PolymarketYES Price
4.1¢
implied probability
24h Drift
-0.1¢
day-over-day
Volatility
7.9¢
daily price swing (σ)
Liquidity
$369.8K
order-book depth
24h Volume
$250.9K
traded last day
Smart $ Net
$6.1K
tracked buy − sell
Tracked Wallets
26
9 YES · 17 NO
Top Holder
26%
of tracked capital
Price History
YES priceWhale buyWhale sellRegime shift
YES implied probability over time (intraday resolution), with tracked whale trades overlaid at their YES-equivalent price so buys/sells sit on the line (marker size ∝ trade value). 2 regime shifts flagged — days where the consensus moved more than 2.5σ (likely news shocks).
Whale Activity
Tracked smart money is net buying ($6.1K net), leaning NO. Largest single move: eCash bought $6.5K NO at 93¢ on Jun 19.
- BUYNOeCash#7393¢$6.5KJun 19
- BUYNOeCash#7391¢$6.4KJun 19
- SELLNO7153649820#1695¢$5.1KJun 20
- SELLNO7153649820#1696¢$4.4KJun 20
- BUYNO0x74bf...2a6e#7977¢$3.8KJun 13
- SELLNOKrackenSruster#3548¢$3.7KJun 18
- BUYYESeightpenguins#2330¢$3.3KJun 19
- BUYNOeightpenguins#2394¢$3.3KJun 20
- SELLYESeightpenguins#2370¢$3KJun 19
- SELLYESeightpenguins#238¢$2.7KJun 19
Holder Concentration
KrackenSruster#35
25.6%$18.6K
eCash#73
24.8%$18K
eightpenguins#23
11.5%$8.4K
7153649820#16
7.4%$5.4K
0x74bf...2a6e#79
5.2%$3.8K
0xd396...4991#26
4.9%$3.5K
0x7726...4aee#28
3.9%$2.8K
0x407d...1bae#52
2.6%$1.9K
+ 18 more wallets
14.0%$10.2K
How committed capital is distributed. Top-5 wallets hold 75% of tracked capital (HHI 0.16). A high HHI means a few big convictions drive this market.
Participant P/L
Distribution of tracked wallets’ P/L in this market. 9 winning, 6 losing (win rate 60%); net $5.8K across 26 wallets.
Smart-Money Lean
By headcount35% / 65%
one wallet, one vote
By capital12% / 88%
weighted by committed $
By skill36% / 64%
weighted by skill score — where the sharpest money sits
Three views of which side tracked traders favor. When the skill-weighted lean diverges from the headcount, the most proven wallets disagree with the crowd.
Contacts on Station
| Contact | Side | State | Size | Avg Entry | Value | P/L | First Buy | Last Trade | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 0xa43d...00f4 Rank #198.8 SIG | YES | open | 4,000 | 38.0¢ | $168 | -$1,352 -88.9% | Jun 14, 2026 | Jun 14, 2026 |
| ▸ | @eightpenguins Rank #238.9 SIG | NO | open | 8,887.98 | 94.0¢ | $8,515 | +$160 +1.9% | Jun 18, 2026 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | 0x407d...1bae Rank #527.2 SIG | NO | open | 1,999.51 | 95.9¢ | $1,916 | -$2 -0.1% | Jun 18, 2026 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | 0xd75a...fdec Rank #577.4 SIG | NO | open | 857.79 | 95.0¢ | $822 | +$7 +0.8% | Jun 16, 2026 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| @0xfcb034ffesa540c89ad3732182f6e0c762feac86 Rank #666.8 SIG | YES | open | 4,214.96 | 43.3¢ | $177 | -$1,648 -90.3% | Jun 19, 2026 | Jun 19, 2026 | |
| ▸ | @eCash Rank #737.1 SIG | NO | open | 21,684.69 | 83.2¢ | $20,763 | +$2,731 +15.2% | Jun 19, 2026 | Jun 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | 0x71ab...f015 Rank #896.8 SIG | NO | open | 67.16 | 57.0¢ | $64 | +$26 +68.1% | Jun 19, 2026 | Jun 19, 2026 |
| @Jep-G Rank #976.7 SIG | YES | open | 600.01 | 41.7¢ | $25 | -$225 -89.9% | Jun 16, 2026 | Jun 16, 2026 | |
| @0xrandd8 Rank #129.2 SIG | YES | closed | 1,649.07 | 50.0¢ | — | +$11 +1.4% | — | Jun 17, 2026 | |
| 0x94df...2dce Rank #139.1 SIG | YES | closed | 921.65 | 38.1¢ | — | +$85 +24.2% | — | Apr 19, 2026 | |
| ▸ | 0x371c...c236 Rank #159.1 SIG | NO | closed | 1,782.01 | 43.8¢ | — | +$75 +9.6% | Jun 17, 2026 | Jun 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | @7153649820 Rank #168.9 SIG | NO | closed | 12,681.51 | 42.4¢ | — | +$6,724 +125.1% | Jun 17, 2026 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | 0x8a4c...2c4c Rank #209.1 SIG | NO | closed | 600 | 45.3¢ | — | +$292 +107.4% | Jun 19, 2026 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| @de5nuts Rank #218.7 SIG | YES | closed | 2,164.53 | 30.6¢ | — | +$311 +47.0% | Jun 15, 2026 | Jun 18, 2026 | |
| ▸ | 0xd396...4991 Rank #268.3 SIG | NO | closed | 4,999.99 | 70.8¢ | — | -$30 -0.8% | Jun 19, 2026 | Jun 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | 0x7726...4aee Rank #288.2 SIG | YES | closed | 5,255.92 | 54.1¢ | — | -$565 -19.9% | Jun 17, 2026 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| ▸ | 0x665e...ea7e Rank #348.0 SIG | NO | closed | 1,000 | 39.0¢ | — | +$455 +116.7% | Jun 18, 2026 | Jun 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | @KrackenSruster Rank #358.4 SIG | NO | closed | 31,682.2 | 58.6¢ | — | -$2,005 -10.8% | Jun 15, 2026 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| 0x0099...386e Rank #607.0 SIG | NO | closed | 1,200 | 51.0¢ | — | +$24 +3.9% | — | Apr 21, 2026 | |
| ▸ | 0x6770...45fb Rank #716.7 SIG | YES | closed | 1,200 | 31.0¢ | — | +$0 0.0% | Jun 19, 2026 | Jun 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | 0x2132...7657 Rank #776.5 SIG | NO | closed | 422.88 | 40.8¢ | — | +$117 +68.0% | Jun 21, 2026 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | 0x74bf...2a6e Rank #796.5 SIG | NO | closed | 4,892.36 | 77.0¢ | — | -$567 -15.1% | Jun 13, 2026 | Jun 14, 2026 |
| ▸ | @VFALL Rank #857.0 SIG | NO | closed | 1,665.97 | 56.0¢ | — | +$450 +48.2% | Jun 19, 2026 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| 0x6fc2...7999 Rank #866.9 SIG | YES | closed | 1,000 | 24.0¢ | — | +$10 +4.2% | — | Apr 11, 2026 | |
| @WashTrade Rank #936.8 SIG | NO | closed | 500 | 25.0¢ | — | +$57 +45.6% | — | Jun 19, 2026 | |
| ▸ | @Toncar16 Unranked | NO | closed | 0 | 45.0¢ | — | +$653 +108.9% | Jun 19, 2026 | Jun 20, 2026 |