Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
View on PolymarketPrice History
YES implied probability over time (intraday resolution), with tracked whale trades overlaid at their YES-equivalent price so buys/sells sit on the line (marker size ∝ trade value). 2 regime shifts flagged — days where the consensus moved more than 2.5σ (likely news shocks).
Whale Activity
Tracked smart money is net buying ($632 net), leaning YES. Largest single move: a rank-#3 wallet sold $2.7K YES at 55¢ on Jun 11.
- SELLYES0x9360...03e6#355¢$2.7KJun 11
- SELLNOBigRabbit#4748¢$2.4KJun 22
- SELLYES0x6fc2...7999#8667¢$2.2KJun 14
- SELLYES0x6fc2...7999#8642¢$2.1KJun 19
- BUYNO0x6770...45fb#7135¢$2.1KJun 15
- SELLYES0x6fc2...7999#8646¢$1.8KMay 23
- BUYNO0x6770...45fb#7135¢$1.5KJun 15
- SELLYES0x9360...03e6#365¢$1.4KJun 15
- SELLYES0x6fc2...7999#8662¢$1.2KJun 14
- SELLYES0x6fc2...7999#8666¢$1.1KJun 14
Holder Concentration
How committed capital is distributed. Top-5 wallets hold 82% of tracked capital (HHI 0.16). A high HHI means a few big convictions drive this market.
Participant P/L
Distribution of tracked wallets’ P/L in this market. 9 winning, 1 losing (win rate 90%); net $14.1K across 17 wallets.
Smart-Money Lean
Three views of which side tracked traders favor. When the skill-weighted lean diverges from the headcount, the most proven wallets disagree with the crowd.
Contacts on Station
| Contact | Side | State | Size | Avg Entry | Value | P/L | First Buy | Last Trade | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 0xd396...4991 Rank #268.3 SIG | NO | open | 399.96 | 57.2¢ | $206 | -$23 -9.9% | Jun 20, 2026 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | 0x665e...ea7e Rank #348.0 SIG | NO | open | 1,499.96 | 53.0¢ | $772 | -$22 -2.8% | May 29, 2026 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | 0x6770...45fb Rank #716.7 SIG | NO | open | 14,211.04 | 37.2¢ | $7,319 | +$2,033 +38.5% | Jun 14, 2026 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | 0x71ab...f015 Rank #896.8 SIG | NO | open | 44,080.66 | 35.3¢ | $22,702 | +$7,134 +45.9% | Jun 15, 2026 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | @Jep-G Rank #976.7 SIG | YES | open | 2,500.01 | 41.7¢ | $1,213 | +$169 +16.2% | Jun 21, 2026 | Jun 23, 2026 |
| ▸ | 0x5287...3a16 Rank #110.0 SIG | YES | closed | 1,007.82 | 55.0¢ | — | +$0 0.0% | Jun 16, 2026 | Jun 16, 2026 |
| ▸ | 0x9360...03e6 Rank #39.9 SIG | YES | closed | 7,237.39 | 45.0¢ | — | +$1,448 +44.5% | Jun 11, 2026 | Jun 15, 2026 |
| ▸ | @0xrandd8 Rank #129.2 SIG | YES | closed | 30,664.74 | 50.0¢ | — | +$872 +5.7% | Jun 22, 2026 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | 0x371c...c236 Rank #159.1 SIG | NO | closed | 1,374.95 | 53.0¢ | — | +$12 +1.7% | Jun 20, 2026 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| 0x8a4c...2c4c Rank #209.1 SIG | NO | closed | 449.99 | 53.3¢ | — | +$52 +21.9% | Jun 1, 2026 | Jun 4, 2026 | |
| ▸ | @BigRabbit Rank #477.3 SIG | NO | closed | 15,998.81 | 53.0¢ | — | +$645 +7.6% | Jun 22, 2026 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | 0x0099...386e Rank #607.0 SIG | YES | closed | 3,400 | 23.9¢ | — | +$622 +76.6% | Jun 14, 2026 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| 0x2132...7657 Rank #776.5 SIG | YES | closed | 100 | 47.0¢ | — | +$26 +55.3% | — | May 23, 2026 | |
| @mcorleone Rank #787.1 SIG | NO | closed | 1,000 | 42.0¢ | — | +$190 +45.2% | — | Jun 2, 2026 | |
| ▸ | 0x6fc2...7999 Rank #866.9 SIG | YES | closed | 32,999.92 | 49.4¢ | — | +$1,075 +6.6% | May 23, 2026 | Jun 19, 2026 |
| @WashTrade Rank #936.8 SIG | YES | closed | 13,884.55 | 50.0¢ | — | -$159 -2.3% | Jun 20, 2026 | Jun 20, 2026 | |
| ▸ | 0x27f2...4b62 Rank #936.0 SIG | NO | closed | 122 | 53.0¢ | — | -$1 -1.9% | Jun 2, 2026 | Jun 20, 2026 |