IranLiveResolves Jun 30, 2026

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

View on Polymarket

YES Price

0.3¢

implied probability

24h Drift

0.0¢

day-over-day

Volatility

3.4¢

daily price swing (σ)

Liquidity

$1M

order-book depth

24h Volume

$172.4K

traded last day

Smart $ Net

-$20

tracked buy − sell

Tracked Wallets

4 YES · 17 NO

Top Holder

50%

of tracked capital

Price History

YES priceWhale buyWhale sellRegime shift

YES implied probability over time (intraday resolution), with tracked whale trades overlaid at their YES-equivalent price so buys/sells sit on the line (marker size ∝ trade value). 7 regime shifts flagged — days where the consensus moved more than 2.5σ (likely news shocks).

Whale Activity

12 tracked fills

Tracked smart money is net selling ($20 net), leaning NO. Largest single move: a rank-#26 wallet bought $5.0K NO at 99¢ on Jun 15.

BUYNO0xd396...4991#2699¢$5KJun 15
SELLNOkevtp#100100¢$963.6Jun 15
SELLNOkevtp#100100¢$960.4Jun 15
SELLNOkevtp#100100¢$943.7Jun 15
SELLNOkevtp#100100¢$777.9Jun 15
SELLNOkevtp#100100¢$544.2Jun 15
SELLNOkevtp#100100¢$499.9Jun 15
SELLNOkevtp#100100¢$183.6Jun 15

Holder Concentration

49.6%$236.1K

10.2%$48.8K

8.9%$42.5K

7.6%$36.2K

4.6%$21.8K

3.2%$15.1K

3.1%$14.6K

2.7%$13K

+ 13 more wallets

10.1%$48K

How committed capital is distributed. Top-5 wallets hold 81% of tracked capital (HHI 0.28). A high HHI means a few big convictions drive this market.

Participant P/L

≤ −$5K

−$5K…−$1K

−$1K…−$100

≈ flat

$100…$1K

$1K…$5K

≥ $5K

Distribution of tracked wallets’ P/L in this market. 14 winning, 3 losing (win rate 82%); net $6.6K across 21 wallets.

Smart-Money Lean

By headcount19% / 81%

one wallet, one vote

By capital10% / 90%

weighted by committed $

By skill19% / 81%

weighted by skill score — where the sharpest money sits

Three views of which side tracked traders favor. When the skill-weighted lean diverges from the headcount, the most proven wallets disagree with the crowd.

Contacts on Station

leaderboard wallets in this market · click a row for fills

	Contact	Side	State	Size	Avg Entry	Value	P/L	First Buy	Last Trade
	0x10e4...b019 Rank #89.7 SIG	NO	open	7,106	93.7¢	$7,088	+$431 +6.5%	May 10, 2026	May 21, 2026
	0xbd27...2807 Rank #139.5 SIG	NO	open	999.98	58.0¢	$997	+$417 +72.0%	—	—
	@lomneivan Rank #179.2 SIG	NO	open	16,899.38	77.0¢	$16,857	+$3,845 +29.5%	—	—
▸	0xd396...4991 Rank #268.3 SIG	NO	open	43,250	98.2¢	$43,142	+$659 +1.6%	Jun 15, 2026	Jun 15, 2026
	0x02a1...dd72 Rank #617.4 SIG	NO	open	7,000	70.0¢	$6,983	+$2,083 +42.5%	—	—
	@eCash Rank #737.1 SIG	NO	open	27,031.04	80.5¢	$26,963	+$5,198 +23.9%	—	—
	0xba3c...2e4e Rank #966.7 SIG	NO	open	2,250	62.0¢	$2,244	+$849 +60.9%	—	—
▸	@kevtp Rank #1006.0 SIG	NO	open	50,000.09	97.6¢	$49,875	+$1,093 +2.2%	Jun 15, 2026	Jun 15, 2026
	@0xrandd8 Rank #129.2 SIG	YES	closed	86,357.24	8.0¢	—	+$118 +1.7%	—	Apr 29, 2026
	@eightpenguins Rank #238.9 SIG	NO	closed	22,222	68.0¢	—	+$4,889 +32.4%	—	Apr 12, 2026
	0x7726...4aee Rank #288.2 SIG	NO	closed	15,000	97.3¢	—	+$15 +0.1%	May 24, 2026	Jun 3, 2026
	@BigRabbit Rank #477.3 SIG	YES	closed	253,388.71	14.3¢	—	-$23,450 -64.7%	—	May 22, 2026
	0x407d...1bae Rank #527.2 SIG	NO	closed	829.83	86.0¢	—	+$0 0.0%	—	Apr 3, 2026
	0xd75a...fdec Rank #577.4 SIG	NO	closed	2,222.2	68.0¢	—	+$489 +32.4%	—	Apr 12, 2026
	0x0099...386e Rank #607.0 SIG	NO	closed	7,999.98	92.0¢	—	+$780 +10.6%	—	May 1, 2026
	0x6770...45fb Rank #716.7 SIG	NO	closed	5,000	97.3¢	—	+$47 +1.0%	—	Jun 11, 2026
	0x74bf...2a6e Rank #796.5 SIG	NO	closed	5,000	72.0¢	—	+$1,000 +27.8%	—	May 1, 2026
	0x1ca4...f2d4 Rank #906.2 SIG	YES	closed	10,000	18.0¢	—	-$400 -22.2%	—	Mar 31, 2026
	@WashTrade Rank #936.8 SIG	YES	closed	22,812.27	8.0¢	—	+$57 +3.1%	—	Apr 12, 2026
	@Jep-G Rank #976.7 SIG	NO	closed	6,899.98	86.0¢	—	-$166 -2.8%	—	Apr 6, 2026
	@aff3 Rank #996.6 SIG	NO	closed	245,970.63	96.0¢	—	+$8,645 +3.7%	Jun 13, 2026	Jun 13, 2026