◆ Contact Dossier
@kevtp
0xdc4b06981e74fe11585438eb40f10bd79f43dbca
0.0
/ 10 · 90D
Porpoise
Class · est. size $1.1M
30-Day Window6.0 SIG
- Edge / share
- +9.3¢ · 17 resolved
- Hit rate
- 70.8%
- Net P/L · Vol
- $21.6K / $311.3K
- % return
- +4.6%
- Observations
- 24
90-Day Window0.0 SIG
- Edge / share
- -3.5¢ · 70 resolved
- Hit rate
- 75.9%
- Net P/L · Vol
- $40.7K / $1.1M
- % return
- +3.1%
- Observations
- 87
Dive Profile
Net Catch · 90D
+$30,232
Depth = mark-to-market P/L90-day trace
Current Positions
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg Entry | Current | Value | Unrealized P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | No | 55,000.13 | 95.7¢ | 99.6¢ | $54,753 | +$2,099 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 50,000.09 | 97.6¢ | 99.8¢ | $49,875 | +$1,093 |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | No | 20,000.06 | 76.1¢ | 78.5¢ | $15,700 | +$486 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? | No | 18,000 | 97.9¢ | 100.0¢ | $17,991 | +$366 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | No | 17,000.04 | 98.8¢ | 99.7¢ | $16,941 | +$150 |
| Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | No | 15,954.01 | 97.9¢ | 99.7¢ | $15,898 | +$275 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | No | 14,000.16 | 86.6¢ | 93.5¢ | $13,090 | +$967 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | No | 10,000 | 97.0¢ | 97.7¢ | $9,770 | +$69 |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | No | 7,999.97 | 96.8¢ | 99.2¢ | $7,936 | +$194 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | No | 6,999.73 | 90.8¢ | 98.0¢ | $6,856 | +$499 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 5,000.01 | 88.5¢ | 91.5¢ | $4,575 | +$149 |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | No | 5,000 | 88.0¢ | 88.5¢ | $4,425 | +$25 |
| Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | No | 4,999.97 | 96.7¢ | 99.7¢ | $4,982 | +$147 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | No | 4,861.03 | 94.3¢ | 96.0¢ | $4,664 | +$80 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 3,000 | 85.2¢ | 90.5¢ | $2,715 | +$158 |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? | No | 2,000.5 | 85.6¢ | 99.7¢ | $1,993 | +$282 |
| Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? | No | 1,500.11 | 64.1¢ | 73.5¢ | $1,103 | +$141 |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | No | 1,000.05 | 80.0¢ | 90.5¢ | $905 | +$105 |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 1,000 | 66.0¢ | 60.5¢ | $605 | -$55 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | No | 1,000 | 96.2¢ | 99.6¢ | $996 | +$34 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | No | 500.43 | 85.1¢ | 95.1¢ | $476 | +$50 |
| Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? | Yes | 299.64 | 33.8¢ | 16.5¢ | $49 | -$52 |
| Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? | Yes | 221.7 | 92.7¢ | 99.8¢ | $221 | +$16 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 200.01 | 72.5¢ | 86.5¢ | $173 | +$28 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | No | 100.03 | 74.4¢ | 86.5¢ | $87 | +$12 |
Trade History
| Market | Outcome | Avg Entry | Avg Exit | Bought | Sold | Last | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | No | 88.0¢ | — | 5,000 | 0 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | No | 75.0¢ | 79.0¢ | 1,073.06 | 1,072.99 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | No | 97.0¢ | — | 10,000 | 0 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | No | 94.3¢ | — | 4,861.03 | 0 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | No | — | 99.6¢ | 0 | 2,667.4 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | No | 96.8¢ | — | 7,999.97 | 0 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? | Yes | 33.8¢ | — | 299.64 | 0 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| ▸ | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | No | 98.9¢ | — | 9,000 | 0 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | No | — | 99.6¢ | 0 | 40,000.4 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | No | 90.9¢ | — | 5,838.75 | 0 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| ▸ | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | No | 96.5¢ | 97.7¢ | 7,110.7 | 12,100.08 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? | No | — | 83.6¢ | 0 | 200 | Jun 16, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | — | 99.6¢ | 0 | 4,999.96 | Jun 15, 2026 |
| ▸ | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? | No | 97.9¢ | — | 18,000 | 0 | Jun 14, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? | No | — | 99.5¢ | 0 | 4,499.97 | Jun 14, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 88.0¢ | — | 2,000 | 0 | Jun 13, 2026 |
| ▸ | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | No | — | 99.7¢ | 0 | 100 | Jun 13, 2026 |