PoliticsLiveResolves Apr 12, 2026

Peru Presidential Election Winner

View on Polymarket

YES Price

99.0¢

implied probability

24h Drift

0.0¢

day-over-day

Volatility

4.1¢

daily price swing (σ)

Liquidity

$15.3M

order-book depth

24h Volume

$345.8K

traded last day

Smart $ Net

$13.1K

tracked buy − sell

Tracked Wallets

17 YES · 2 NO

Top Holder

49%

of tracked capital

Price History

Keiko FujimoriRoberto Sánchez PalominoRafael López AliagaWhale buyWhale sellRegime shift

YES implied probability over time (intraday resolution), with tracked whale trades overlaid at their YES-equivalent price so buys/sells sit on the line (marker size ∝ trade value). 5 regime shifts flagged — days where the consensus moved more than 2.5σ (likely news shocks).

Whale Activity

138 tracked fills

Tracked smart money is net buying ($13.1K net), leaning YES. Largest single move: lomneivan bought $18.5K YES at 85¢ on Jun 9.

BUYYESlomneivan#1785¢$18.5KJun 9
SELLYES0x61ea...bbf7#1190¢$10.4KJun 9
BUYYESlomneivan#1771¢$7.9KJun 8
BUYYES0x6770...45fb#7198¢$2.9KJun 16
SELLYES0x61ea...bbf7#1161¢$1.4KMay 7
SELLYES0xd396...4991#2699¢$1.4KJun 20
SELLYESSnowLover7#3099¢$988.2Jun 22
SELLYESSnowLover7#3099¢$870.3Jun 22

Holder Concentration

49.1%$122.4K

29.2%$72.8K

4.0%$9.9K

3.7%$9.2K

2.4%$5.9K

2.0%$5K

1.9%$4.8K

1.9%$4.7K

+ 11 more wallets

5.8%$14.5K

How committed capital is distributed. Top-5 wallets hold 88% of tracked capital (HHI 0.33). A high HHI means a few big convictions drive this market.

Participant P/L

≤ −$5K

−$5K…−$1K

−$1K…−$100

≈ flat

$100…$1K

$1K…$5K

≥ $5K

Distribution of tracked wallets’ P/L in this market. 14 winning, 1 losing (win rate 93%); net $121.4K across 19 wallets.

Smart-Money Lean

By headcount89% / 11%

one wallet, one vote

By capital99% / 1%

weighted by committed $

By skill89% / 11%

weighted by skill score — where the sharpest money sits

Three views of which side tracked traders favor. When the skill-weighted lean diverges from the headcount, the most proven wallets disagree with the crowd.

Contacts on Station

leaderboard wallets in this market · click a row for fills

	Contact	Side	State	Size	Avg Entry	Value	P/L	First Buy	Last Trade
	0xd24b...ef76 Rank #99.5 SIG	YES	open	11,706.18	78.5¢	$11,583	+$2,393 +26.1%	Jun 6, 2026	Jun 10, 2026
▸	@lomneivan Rank #179.2 SIG	YES	open	203,223.89	60.2¢	$201,090	+$78,675 +64.3%	Jun 8, 2026	Jun 9, 2026
	0xa43d...00f4 Rank #198.8 SIG	YES	open	4,999.99	94.2¢	$4,947	+$238 +5.1%	Jun 5, 2026	Jun 10, 2026
▸	@SnowLover7 Rank #308.1 SIG	YES	open	101,832.84	71.5¢	$100,764	+$27,940 +38.4%	Jun 22, 2026	Jun 22, 2026
	0x79d9...baec Rank #387.7 SIG	YES	open	7,000	71.0¢	$6,926	+$1,956 +39.4%	—	—
	@cry.eth2 Rank #447.5 SIG	YES	open	502.54	28.8¢	$497	+$352 +243.2%	—	—
	0x02a1...dd72 Rank #617.4 SIG	YES	open	800	38.0¢	$792	+$488 +160.4%	—	—
	@0xfcb034ffesa540c89ad3732182f6e0c762feac86 Rank #666.8 SIG	YES	open	7,000	26.6¢	$6,927	+$5,064 +272.0%	—	—
▸	0x6770...45fb Rank #716.7 SIG	YES	open	6,014.52	97.6¢	$5,951	+$81 +1.4%	Jun 16, 2026	Jun 16, 2026
	@eCash Rank #737.1 SIG	YES	open	4,999.99	86.6¢	$4,947	+$618 +14.3%	—	—
▸	0x61ea...bbf7 Rank #119.6 SIG	YES	closed	15,456.58	64.0¢	—	+$2,898 +29.3%	May 7, 2026	Jun 9, 2026
	@0xrandd8 Rank #129.2 SIG	NO	closed	9,999.95	4.3¢	—	+$48 +11.1%	—	Jun 10, 2026
	@eightpenguins Rank #238.9 SIG	YES	closed	2,221.99	55.0¢	—	+$244 +20.0%	—	Jun 7, 2026
▸	0xd396...4991 Rank #268.3 SIG	YES	closed	1,390.71	92.5¢	—	+$90 +7.0%	Jun 20, 2026	Jun 20, 2026
▸	0x407d...1bae Rank #527.2 SIG	NO	closed	13,497.11	7.0¢	—	-$498 -52.7%	Jun 21, 2026	Jun 21, 2026
	0xd75a...fdec Rank #577.4 SIG	YES	closed	221.74	56.0¢	—	+$22 +18.0%	—	Jun 7, 2026
	0xe6fa...aeec Rank #647.0 SIG	YES	closed	15,804.41	30.3¢	—	+$314 +6.5%	—	Jun 8, 2026
▸	0x296b...2cf2 Rank #707.3 SIG	YES	closed	0.01	53.1¢	—	+$144 +27.2%	Jun 7, 2026	Jun 8, 2026
	@VFALL Rank #857.0 SIG	YES	closed	4,450.57	86.1¢	—	+$329 +8.6%	—	Jun 13, 2026