transitLiveResolves Jun 15, 2026

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

View on Polymarket

YES Price

0.1¢

implied probability

24h Drift

0.0¢

day-over-day

Volatility

1.1¢

daily price swing (σ)

Liquidity

$735.7K

order-book depth

24h Volume

$43.2K

traded last day

Smart $ Net

-$569.7

tracked buy − sell

Tracked Wallets

3 YES · 7 NO

Top Holder

28%

of tracked capital

Price History

YES priceWhale buyWhale sellRegime shift

YES implied probability over time (intraday resolution), with tracked whale trades overlaid at their YES-equivalent price so buys/sells sit on the line (marker size ∝ trade value). 2 regime shifts flagged — days where the consensus moved more than 2.5σ (likely news shocks).

Whale Activity

28 tracked fills

Tracked smart money is net selling ($570 net), leaning NO. Largest single move: a rank-#86 wallet sold $1.1K NO at 94¢ on Jun 1.

SELLNO0x6fc2...7999#8694¢$1.1KJun 1
SELLNO0x6fc2...7999#8694¢$670Jun 1
SELLNO0x6fc2...7999#8694¢$478.7Jun 1
BUYNO0x6fc2...7999#8681¢$405May 27
BUYNO0x6fc2...7999#8681¢$405May 27
BUYNO0x6fc2...7999#8680¢$400May 27
BUYNO0x6fc2...7999#8679¢$363.4May 27
BUYNO0x6fc2...7999#8679¢$319.2May 27

Holder Concentration

27.7%$4.9K

18.9%$3.4K

13.8%$2.5K

11.2%$2K

10.0%$1.8K

9.3%$1.7K

3.8%$682

2.6%$460

+ 2 more wallets

2.8%$495

How committed capital is distributed. Top-5 wallets hold 82% of tracked capital (HHI 0.17). A high HHI means a few big convictions drive this market.

Participant P/L

≤ −$5K

−$5K…−$1K

−$1K…−$100

≈ flat

$100…$1K

$1K…$5K

≥ $5K

Distribution of tracked wallets’ P/L in this market. 5 winning, 1 losing (win rate 83%); net $9.8K across 10 wallets.

Smart-Money Lean

By headcount30% / 70%

one wallet, one vote

By capital14% / 86%

weighted by committed $

By skill31% / 69%

weighted by skill score — where the sharpest money sits

Three views of which side tracked traders favor. When the skill-weighted lean diverges from the headcount, the most proven wallets disagree with the crowd.

Contacts on Station

leaderboard wallets in this market · click a row for fills

	Contact	Side	State	Size	Avg Entry	Value	P/L	First Buy	Last Trade
	@de5nuts Rank #218.7 SIG	NO	open	3,874.87	87.0¢	$3,873	+$502 +14.9%	—	—
	0x79d9...baec Rank #387.7 SIG	NO	open	3,000	82.0¢	$2,999	+$539 +21.9%	—	—
▸	0x9360...03e6 Rank #39.9 SIG	YES	closed	31,999.88	5.6¢	—	-$470 -26.4%	Jun 11, 2026	Jun 11, 2026
	0x8a4c...2c4c Rank #209.1 SIG	NO	closed	500	92.0¢	—	+$24 +5.1%	May 31, 2026	Jun 4, 2026
	@BigRabbit Rank #477.3 SIG	NO	closed	2,000	83.0¢	—	+$266 +16.0%	—	Jun 1, 2026
	0x0099...386e Rank #607.0 SIG	YES	closed	1,000	4.0¢	—	-$12 -31.0%	—	Jun 7, 2026
▸	0x6fc2...7999 Rank #866.9 SIG	NO	closed	2,499.98	80.0¢	—	+$350 +17.5%	May 27, 2026	Jun 1, 2026
	0x71ab...f015 Rank #896.8 SIG	NO	closed	14,000	35.4¢	—	+$8,472 +171.2%	—	Jun 1, 2026
	@WashTrade Rank #936.8 SIG	YES	closed	3,409.75	20.0¢	—	+$68 +10.0%	—	May 27, 2026
▸	@kevtp Rank #1006.0 SIG	NO	closed	500	91.0¢	—	+$31 +6.7%	Jun 13, 2026	Jun 13, 2026