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Strait of HormuzLiveResolves Jun 30, 2026

What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?

View on Polymarket
YES Price
100.0¢
implied probability
24h Drift
0.0¢
day-over-day
Volatility
17.1¢
daily price swing (σ)
Liquidity
$317K
order-book depth
24h Volume
$462.4K
traded last day
Smart $ Net
$10.6K
tracked buy − sell
Tracked Wallets
10
7 YES · 3 NO
Top Holder
23%
of tracked capital

Price History

Troop WithdrawalOil Sanction ReliefUnfreeze Iranian AssetsWhale buyWhale sellRegime shift
8¢31¢54¢77¢100¢May 22Jun 1Jun 11Jun 22SELL YES · ArcheroonBUY YES · ArcheroonBUY YES · eightpenguinsBUY NO · KrackenSrusterBUY YES · 0x79d9...baecSELL NO · KrackenSrusterSELL NO · KrackenSrusterBUY NO · KrackenSruster

YES implied probability over time (intraday resolution), with tracked whale trades overlaid at their YES-equivalent price so buys/sells sit on the line (marker size ∝ trade value). 2 regime shifts flagged — days where the consensus moved more than 2.5σ (likely news shocks).

Whale Activity

196 tracked fills

Tracked smart money is net buying ($10.6K net), leaning YES. Largest single move: Archeroon sold $6.0K YES at 100¢ on Jun 18.

Holder Concentration

KrackenSruster#35
23.0%$6.2K
de5nuts#21
22.6%$6.1K
0x79d9...baec#38
18.6%$5K
eightpenguins#23
14.7%$4K
Archeroon#98
12.5%$3.4K
0x6770...45fb#71
3.0%$819.8
0x9360...03e6#3
2.6%$700
0xd75a...fdec#57
1.5%$397.6
+ 2 more wallets
1.5%$419

How committed capital is distributed. Top-5 wallets hold 91% of tracked capital (HHI 0.18). A high HHI means a few big convictions drive this market.

Participant P/L

≤ −$5K
1
−$5K…−$1K
2
−$1K…−$100
5
≈ flat
1
$100…$1K
1
$1K…$5K
≥ $5K

Distribution of tracked wallets’ P/L in this market. 2 winning, 3 losing (win rate 40%); net -$1.2K across 10 wallets.

Smart-Money Lean

By headcount70% / 30%
one wallet, one vote
By capital73% / 27%
weighted by committed $
By skill70% / 30%
weighted by skill score — where the sharpest money sits

Three views of which side tracked traders favor. When the skill-weighted lean diverges from the headcount, the most proven wallets disagree with the crowd.

Contacts on Station

leaderboard wallets in this market · click a row for fills
ContactSideStateSizeAvg EntryValueP/LFirst BuyLast Trade
▸@7153649820
Rank #168.9 SIG
NOopen1,00026.0¢$0-$260 -99.8%Jun 17, 2026Jun 17, 2026
▸0x6770...45fb
Rank #716.7 SIG
NOopen2,370.2634.6¢$1-$819 -99.9%Jun 18, 2026Jun 18, 2026
▸0x9360...03e6
Rank #39.9 SIG
YESclosed1,00070.0¢—+$0 0.0%Jun 17, 2026Jun 17, 2026
@de5nuts
Rank #218.7 SIG
YESclosed11,497.9853.0¢—+$0 0.0%Jun 15, 2026Jun 18, 2026
▸@eightpenguins
Rank #238.9 SIG
YESclosed7,180.5355.2¢—+$0 0.0%Jun 18, 2026Jun 18, 2026
▸@KrackenSruster
Rank #358.4 SIG
NOclosed26,541.4923.4¢—-$3,088 -49.7%Jun 18, 2026Jun 18, 2026
▸0x79d9...baec
Rank #387.7 SIG
YESclosed6,999.7872.0¢—+$0 0.0%Jun 17, 2026Jun 17, 2026
▸0xd75a...fdec
Rank #577.4 SIG
YESclosed703.556.5¢—+$294 +74.0%Jun 17, 2026Jun 18, 2026
@eCash
Rank #737.1 SIG
YESclosed26560.0¢—+$0 0.0%Jun 18, 2026Jun 18, 2026
▸@Archeroon
Rank #986.7 SIG
YESclosed6,049.2556.0¢—+$2,656 +78.4%Jun 18, 2026Jun 18, 2026