TrumpLiveResolves Dec 31, 2026

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

View on Polymarket

YES Price

12.5¢

implied probability

24h Drift

-1.0¢

day-over-day

Volatility

2.1¢

daily price swing (σ)

Liquidity

$490.5K

order-book depth

24h Volume

$42.8K

traded last day

Smart $ Net

-$670.2

tracked buy − sell

Tracked Wallets

6 YES · 5 NO

Top Holder

33%

of tracked capital

Price History

December 31July 31June 30Whale buyWhale sellRegime shift

YES implied probability over time (intraday resolution), with tracked whale trades overlaid at their YES-equivalent price so buys/sells sit on the line (marker size ∝ trade value). 2 regime shifts flagged — days where the consensus moved more than 2.5σ (likely news shocks).

Whale Activity

8 tracked fills

Tracked smart money is net selling ($670 net), leaning YES. Largest single move: BigRabbit sold $650 YES at 13¢ on Jun 22.

SELLYESBigRabbit#4713¢$650Jun 22
SELLYESBigRabbit#4714¢$17.5Jun 22
SELLYESBigRabbit#4714¢$1Jun 22
SELLYESBigRabbit#4714¢$0.6Jun 23
SELLYESBigRabbit#4714¢$0.5Jun 22
SELLYESBigRabbit#4714¢$0.4Jun 22
SELLYESBigRabbit#4714¢$0.2Jun 22
SELLYESBigRabbit#4714¢$0.1Jun 22

Holder Concentration

32.6%$9.5K

25.4%$7.4K

18.7%$5.5K

11.2%$3.3K

0x6992D56559Dd30b5B5D0F5cA3D5427F9e94e6c1d-1760272837095#69

4.5%$1.3K

WashTrade#93

3.0%$865.8

0xbd27...2807#13

2.6%$750

0x9360...03e6#3

1.4%$405

+ 3 more wallets

0.8%$236.2

How committed capital is distributed. Top-5 wallets hold 92% of tracked capital (HHI 0.22). A high HHI means a few big convictions drive this market.

Participant P/L

≤ −$5K

−$5K…−$1K

−$1K…−$100

≈ flat

$100…$1K

$1K…$5K

≥ $5K

Distribution of tracked wallets’ P/L in this market. 2 winning, 3 losing (win rate 40%); net -$2.1K across 11 wallets.

Smart-Money Lean

By headcount55% / 45%

one wallet, one vote

By capital28% / 72%

weighted by committed $

By skill55% / 45%

weighted by skill score — where the sharpest money sits

Three views of which side tracked traders favor. When the skill-weighted lean diverges from the headcount, the most proven wallets disagree with the crowd.

Contacts on Station

leaderboard wallets in this market · click a row for fills

	Contact	Side	State	Size	Avg Entry	Value	P/L	First Buy	Last Trade
	0xbd27...2807 Rank #139.5 SIG	NO	open	1,000	75.0¢	$865	+$115 +15.3%	May 9, 2026	May 10, 2026
	0x79d9...baec Rank #387.7 SIG	NO	open	9,599.98	77.5¢	$8,304	+$862 +11.6%	—	—
▸	@BigRabbit Rank #477.3 SIG	YES	open	24,860.53	22.0¢	$3,356	-$2,122 -38.7%	Jun 22, 2026	Jun 23, 2026
	@0x6992D56559Dd30b5B5D0F5cA3D5427F9e94e6c1d-1760272837095 Rank #696.7 SIG	YES	open	4,800.04	27.3¢	$648	-$662 -50.5%	—	—
	@kevtp Rank #1006.0 SIG	NO	open	100.03	74.4¢	$87	+$12 +16.3%	—	—
	0x9360...03e6 Rank #39.9 SIG	YES	closed	1,500	27.0¢	—	+$0 0.0%	—	May 22, 2026
	@0xrandd8 Rank #129.2 SIG	YES	closed	241.67	43.8¢	—	+$0 +0.1%	—	Apr 18, 2026
	@KrackenSruster Rank #358.4 SIG	NO	closed	4,462.04	73.3¢	—	+$29 +0.9%	—	May 11, 2026
	0x2132...7657 Rank #776.5 SIG	YES	closed	200	28.0¢	—	+$0 0.0%	—	Apr 24, 2026
	0x74bf...2a6e Rank #796.5 SIG	NO	closed	11,931	80.0¢	—	-$358 -3.7%	May 26, 2026	May 29, 2026
	@WashTrade Rank #936.8 SIG	YES	closed	2,985.68	29.0¢	—	+$0 0.0%	—	May 6, 2026