World ElectionsLiveResolves Nov 7, 2028

Presidential Election Winner 2028

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YES Price

20.4¢

implied probability

24h Drift

-0.1¢

day-over-day

Volatility

0.5¢

daily price swing (σ)

Liquidity

$38.9M

order-book depth

24h Volume

$517.1K

traded last day

Smart $ Net

-$7.6

tracked buy − sell

Tracked Wallets

6 YES · 5 NO

Top Holder

96%

of tracked capital

Price History

JD VanceGavin NewsomMarco RubioWhale buyWhale sellRegime shift

YES implied probability over time (intraday resolution), with tracked whale trades overlaid at their YES-equivalent price so buys/sells sit on the line (marker size ∝ trade value). 5 regime shifts flagged — days where the consensus moved more than 2.5σ (likely news shocks).

Whale Activity

3 tracked fills

Tracked smart money is net selling ($8 net), leaning YES. Largest single move: gandalf sold $5 YES at 19¢ on Apr 29.

SELLYESgandalf#2119¢$5Apr 29
SELLYESgandalf#2119¢$2.4Apr 29
SELLYESpeepeehua#3321¢$0.1Jun 22

Holder Concentration

0xAD96914D7762DAC84EbBABAfE366AE8ff24Dd49#100

95.6%$2.1M

1.9%$41.5K

0.8%$17.1K

0.5%$10K

0.5%$10K

0.4%$8.2K

0.3%$7.5K

0.0%$754.7

+ 3 more wallets

0.0%$759.9

How committed capital is distributed. Top-5 wallets hold 99% of tracked capital (HHI 0.91). A high HHI means a few big convictions drive this market.

Participant P/L

≤ −$5K

−$5K…−$1K

−$1K…−$100

≈ flat

$100…$1K

$1K…$5K

≥ $5K

Distribution of tracked wallets’ P/L in this market. 2 winning, 3 losing (win rate 40%); net -$34.5K across 11 wallets.

Smart-Money Lean

By headcount55% / 45%

one wallet, one vote

By capital3% / 97%

weighted by committed $

By skill55% / 45%

weighted by skill score — where the sharpest money sits

Three views of which side tracked traders favor. When the skill-weighted lean diverges from the headcount, the most proven wallets disagree with the crowd.

Contacts on Station

leaderboard wallets in this market · click a row for fills

	Contact	Side	State	Size	Avg Entry	Value	P/L	First Buy	Last Trade
	0x10e4...b019 Rank #79.7 SIG	YES	open	20,000	50.0¢	$4,088	-$5,912 -59.1%	—	—
▸	@gandalf Rank #219.1 SIG	YES	open	7,869.41	0.8¢	$1,609	+$1,547 +2520.5%	Apr 29, 2026	Apr 29, 2026
	0x6770...45fb Rank #726.7 SIG	YES	open	20,000	50.0¢	$4,088	-$5,912 -59.1%	—	—
	@eCash Rank #737.1 SIG	YES	open	83,054.9	50.0¢	$16,976	-$24,551 -59.1%	—	—
	@0xrandd8 Rank #168.9 SIG	NO	closed	34,160	50.0¢	—	+$0 0.0%	—	Jun 7, 2026
	0xd396...4991 Rank #228.6 SIG	NO	closed	15,000	50.0¢	—	+$0 0.0%	—	May 29, 2026
▸	@peepeehua Rank #338.0 SIG	YES	closed	2,874.12	26.3¢	—	+$11 +1.5%	Jun 22, 2026	Jun 22, 2026
	@KrackenSruster Rank #358.4 SIG	NO	closed	25	50.0¢	—	+$0 0.0%	—	Apr 2, 2026
	@BigRabbit Rank #477.3 SIG	NO	closed	9,999.77	81.6¢	—	+$360 +4.4%	—	Jun 10, 2026
	0xba3c...2e4e Rank #976.7 SIG	YES	closed	2,800	24.5¢	—	-$40 -5.8%	—	Mar 14, 2026
	@0xAD96914D7762DAC84EbBABAfE366AE8ff24Dd49 Rank #1006.0 SIG	NO	closed	4,124,834.72	50.0¢	—	+$0 0.0%	—	Jun 22, 2026