World ElectionsLiveResolves Nov 7, 2028

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

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YES Price

23.2¢

implied probability

24h Drift

+0.1¢

day-over-day

Volatility

0.7¢

daily price swing (σ)

Liquidity

$66.6M

order-book depth

24h Volume

$1.1M

traded last day

Smart $ Net

-$7

tracked buy − sell

Tracked Wallets

8 YES · 3 NO

Top Holder

49%

of tracked capital

Price History

Gavin NewsomAlexandria Ocasio-CortezJon OssoffWhale buyWhale sellRegime shift

YES implied probability over time (intraday resolution), with tracked whale trades overlaid at their YES-equivalent price so buys/sells sit on the line (marker size ∝ trade value). 11 regime shifts flagged — days where the consensus moved more than 2.5σ (likely news shocks).

Whale Activity

2 tracked fills

Tracked smart money is net selling ($7 net), leaning YES. Largest single move: a rank-#26 wallet sold $7 YES at 23¢ on Jun 13.

SELLYES0xd396...4991#2623¢$6.8Jun 13
SELLYESpeepeehua#3323¢$0.2Jun 22

Holder Concentration

0xfcb034ffesa540c89ad3732182f6e0c762feac86#66

48.7%$57K

39.6%$46.3K

5.1%$6K

3.6%$4.2K

2.5%$2.9K

0.3%$348.8

0.1%$165

0.1%$69.3

+ 3 more wallets

0.0%$48.7

How committed capital is distributed. Top-5 wallets hold 99% of tracked capital (HHI 0.40). A high HHI means a few big convictions drive this market.

Participant P/L

≤ −$5K

−$5K…−$1K

−$1K…−$100

≈ flat

$100…$1K

$1K…$5K

≥ $5K

Distribution of tracked wallets’ P/L in this market. 1 winning, 3 losing (win rate 25%); net -$23.6K across 11 wallets.

Smart-Money Lean

By headcount73% / 27%

one wallet, one vote

By capital43% / 57%

weighted by committed $

By skill76% / 24%

weighted by skill score — where the sharpest money sits

Three views of which side tracked traders favor. When the skill-weighted lean diverges from the headcount, the most proven wallets disagree with the crowd.

Contacts on Station

leaderboard wallets in this market · click a row for fills

	Contact	Side	State	Size	Avg Entry	Value	P/L	First Buy	Last Trade
	@MGGA.eth Rank #79.6 SIG	YES	open	92,582	50.0¢	$21,433	-$24,858 -53.7%	—	—
	0x8a4c...2c4c Rank #209.1 SIG	YES	open	130.82	26.8¢	$30	-$5 -13.5%	—	—
	0xba3c...2e4e Rank #966.7 SIG	YES	open	500	33.0¢	$116	-$49 -29.8%	—	—
	@gandalf Rank #219.1 SIG	YES	closed	10,000	0.7¢	—	+$2,031 +2930.7%	—	Jul 22, 2025
	0x1509...ca95 Rank #248.5 SIG	YES	closed	10	27.4¢	—	-$0 -0.4%	—	Apr 19, 2026
▸	0xd396...4991 Rank #268.3 SIG	YES	closed	30.56	36.0¢	—	-$4 -35.8%	Jun 13, 2026	Jun 13, 2026
▸	@peepeehua Rank #338.0 SIG	YES	closed	1,057.01	33.0¢	—	+$20 +5.8%	Jun 22, 2026	Jun 22, 2026
	@0xfcb034ffesa540c89ad3732182f6e0c762feac86 Rank #666.8 SIG	NO	closed	114,000	50.0¢	—	+$0 0.0%	—	Apr 7, 2026
	0x2132...7657 Rank #776.5 SIG	NO	closed	12,000	50.0¢	—	+$0 0.0%	—	Jun 22, 2026
	@Jep-G Rank #976.7 SIG	NO	closed	5,799.94	72.5¢	—	-$204 -4.9%	—	Apr 14, 2026
	@kevtp Rank #1006.0 SIG	YES	closed	7,999.82	36.4¢	—	-$556 -19.1%	—	Mar 12, 2026