FedLiveResolves Dec 9, 2026

Fed rate hike in 2026?

View on Polymarket

YES Price

57.5¢

implied probability

24h Drift

0.0¢

day-over-day

Volatility

3.3¢

daily price swing (σ)

Liquidity

$225.8K

order-book depth

24h Volume

$135K

traded last day

Smart $ Net

$5.3K

tracked buy − sell

Tracked Wallets

5 YES · 3 NO

Top Holder

42%

of tracked capital

Price History

YES priceWhale buyWhale sellRegime shift

YES implied probability over time (intraday resolution), with tracked whale trades overlaid at their YES-equivalent price so buys/sells sit on the line (marker size ∝ trade value). 7 regime shifts flagged — days where the consensus moved more than 2.5σ (likely news shocks).

Whale Activity

41 tracked fills

Tracked smart money is net buying ($5.3K net), leaning YES. Largest single move: BigRabbit bought $3.4K YES at 59¢ on Jun 22.

BUYYESBigRabbit#4759¢$3.4KJun 22
BUYYESBigRabbit#4759¢$2.3KJun 22
BUYYES0x5287...3a16#153¢$1.8KJun 10
SELLYES0x5287...3a16#152¢$1.7KJun 11
BUYNO0x5287...3a16#165¢$892.5Jun 15
BUYYES0x5287...3a16#130¢$722.8Jun 17
SELLYES0x5287...3a16#129¢$698.7Jun 17
SELLNO0x5287...3a16#165¢$592.3Jun 16

Holder Concentration

41.7%$11.5K

18.0%$5K

13.6%$3.8K

11.5%$3.2K

6.3%$1.8K

4.3%$1.2K

3.5%$980

1.1%$310

How committed capital is distributed. Top-5 wallets hold 91% of tracked capital (HHI 0.24). A high HHI means a few big convictions drive this market.

Participant P/L

≤ −$5K

−$5K…−$1K

−$1K…−$100

≈ flat

$100…$1K

$1K…$5K

≥ $5K

Distribution of tracked wallets’ P/L in this market. 3 winning, 2 losing (win rate 60%); net $1.4K across 8 wallets.

Smart-Money Lean

By headcount63% / 37%

one wallet, one vote

By capital65% / 35%

weighted by committed $

By skill67% / 33%

weighted by skill score — where the sharpest money sits

Three views of which side tracked traders favor. When the skill-weighted lean diverges from the headcount, the most proven wallets disagree with the crowd.

Contacts on Station

leaderboard wallets in this market · click a row for fills

	Contact	Side	State	Size	Avg Entry	Value	P/L	First Buy	Last Trade
▸	0x8a4c...2c4c Rank #209.1 SIG	YES	open	3,002.48	39.9¢	$1,726	+$527 +44.0%	Jun 12, 2026	Jun 21, 2026
	0x79d9...baec Rank #387.7 SIG	NO	open	8,300	60.0¢	$3,528	-$1,453 -29.2%	—	—
▸	@BigRabbit Rank #477.3 SIG	YES	open	19,146.73	60.3¢	$11,009	-$539 -4.7%	Jun 22, 2026	Jun 22, 2026
▸	0x5287...3a16 Rank #110.0 SIG	YES	closed	10,599.25	30.0¢	—	-$85 -2.7%	Jun 10, 2026	Jun 17, 2026
▸	@0xrandd8 Rank #129.2 SIG	YES	closed	500	62.0¢	—	-$0 -0.0%	Jun 21, 2026	Jun 21, 2026
	@7153649820 Rank #168.9 SIG	YES	closed	12,233.96	14.3¢	—	+$2,571 +146.7%	Jun 15, 2026	Jun 15, 2026
	@mcorleone Rank #787.1 SIG	NO	closed	1,999.99	49.0¢	—	+$90 +9.2%	—	Jun 6, 2026
	0x1ca4...f2d4 Rank #906.2 SIG	NO	closed	6,263.45	60.0¢	—	+$324 +8.6%	Jun 3, 2026	Jun 3, 2026