Middle EastLiveResolves Dec 31, 2026

Iran leader end of 2026?

View on Polymarket

YES Price

82.7¢

implied probability

24h Drift

0.0¢

day-over-day

Volatility

5.1¢

daily price swing (σ)

Liquidity

$1.6M

order-book depth

24h Volume

$36.2K

traded last day

Smart $ Net

$194.1

tracked buy − sell

Tracked Wallets

4 YES · 4 NO

Top Holder

32%

of tracked capital

Price History

Mojtaba KhameneiMohammad-Bagher GhalibafReza PahlaviWhale buyWhale sellRegime shift

YES implied probability over time (intraday resolution), with tracked whale trades overlaid at their YES-equivalent price so buys/sells sit on the line (marker size ∝ trade value). 3 regime shifts flagged — days where the consensus moved more than 2.5σ (likely news shocks).

Whale Activity

167 tracked fills

Tracked smart money is net buying ($194 net), leaning NO. Largest single move: 0x6992D56559Dd30b5B5D0F5cA3D5427F9e94e6c1d-1760272837095 bought $49 NO at 16¢ on Jun 17.

BUYNO0x6992D56559Dd30b5B5D0F5cA3D5427F9e94e6c1d-1760272837095#6916¢$49.2Jun 17
BUYNO0x6992D56559Dd30b5B5D0F5cA3D5427F9e94e6c1d-1760272837095#6916¢$41.1Jun 17
BUYYES0x7726...4aee#2877¢$30.6Jun 13
BUYNO0x6992D56559Dd30b5B5D0F5cA3D5427F9e94e6c1d-1760272837095#6916¢$19.6Jun 17
BUYNO0x6992D56559Dd30b5B5D0F5cA3D5427F9e94e6c1d-1760272837095#6916¢$2Jun 17
BUYNO0x6992D56559Dd30b5B5D0F5cA3D5427F9e94e6c1d-1760272837095#6916¢$1.6Jun 17
BUYNO0x6992D56559Dd30b5B5D0F5cA3D5427F9e94e6c1d-1760272837095#6916¢$1.5Jun 17
BUYNO0x6992D56559Dd30b5B5D0F5cA3D5427F9e94e6c1d-1760272837095#6916¢$1.2Jun 17

Holder Concentration

BigRabbit#47

31.8%$3.3K

WashTrade#93

31.0%$3.2K

eCash#73

15.9%$1.6K

0x6992D56559Dd30b5B5D0F5cA3D5427F9e94e6c1d-1760272837095#69

14.5%$1.5K

4.9%$509.3

0.8%$83.2

0.8%$79.6

0.3%$30.6

How committed capital is distributed. Top-5 wallets hold 98% of tracked capital (HHI 0.25). A high HHI means a few big convictions drive this market.

Participant P/L

≤ −$5K

−$5K…−$1K

−$1K…−$100

≈ flat

$100…$1K

$1K…$5K

≥ $5K

Distribution of tracked wallets’ P/L in this market. 2 winning, 2 losing (win rate 50%); net -$1.2K across 8 wallets.

Smart-Money Lean

By headcount50% / 50%

one wallet, one vote

By capital22% / 78%

weighted by committed $

By skill51% / 49%

weighted by skill score — where the sharpest money sits

Three views of which side tracked traders favor. When the skill-weighted lean diverges from the headcount, the most proven wallets disagree with the crowd.

Contacts on Station

leaderboard wallets in this market · click a row for fills

	Contact	Side	State	Size	Avg Entry	Value	P/L	First Buy	Last Trade
	0xbd27...2807 Rank #139.5 SIG	YES	open	799.98	63.7¢	$661	+$152 +29.8%	May 4, 2026	May 4, 2026
▸	0x7726...4aee Rank #288.2 SIG	YES	open	40	76.6¢	$33	+$2 +7.9%	Jun 13, 2026	Jun 13, 2026
▸	@0x6992D56559Dd30b5B5D0F5cA3D5427F9e94e6c1d-1760272837095 Rank #696.7 SIG	NO	open	5,091.11	29.5¢	$883	-$619 -41.2%	Jun 17, 2026	Jun 17, 2026
	@eCash Rank #737.1 SIG	YES	open	3,001.55	54.8¢	$2,481	+$837 +50.9%	—	—
	0x371c...c236 Rank #159.1 SIG	NO	closed	263.05	30.3¢	—	-$0 -0.2%	—	May 27, 2026
	@BigRabbit Rank #477.3 SIG	NO	closed	5,000	65.6¢	—	-$1,571 -47.9%	—	Apr 11, 2026
	0x165e...f5aa Rank #756.6 SIG	YES	closed	300	27.7¢	—	+$47 +56.9%	—	Mar 24, 2026
	@WashTrade Rank #936.8 SIG	NO	closed	10,870.23	29.4¢	—	-$57 -1.8%	—	Jun 14, 2026