SoccerLiveResolves Jul 20, 2026

World Cup Winner

View on Polymarket

YES Price

19.8¢

implied probability

24h Drift

0.0¢

day-over-day

Volatility

0.8¢

daily price swing (σ)

Liquidity

$568.6M

order-book depth

24h Volume

$81.3M

traded last day

Smart $ Net

$8.3K

tracked buy − sell

Tracked Wallets

10 YES · 2 NO

Top Holder

34%

of tracked capital

Price History

FranceSpainArgentinaWhale buyWhale sellRegime shift

YES implied probability over time (intraday resolution), with tracked whale trades overlaid at their YES-equivalent price so buys/sells sit on the line (marker size ∝ trade value). 4 regime shifts flagged — days where the consensus moved more than 2.5σ (likely news shocks).

Whale Activity

24 tracked fills

Tracked smart money is net buying ($8.3K net), leaning YES. Largest single move: a rank-#81 wallet bought $4.9K YES at 19¢ on Jun 20.

BUYYES0xba69...8e9d#8119¢$4.9KJun 20
BUYYES0xba69...8e9d#8120¢$1.1KJun 21
BUYYES0xba69...8e9d#8119¢$740Jun 20
BUYYES0xba69...8e9d#8120¢$704.4Jun 21
BUYYES0xba69...8e9d#8119¢$370Jun 20
BUYYES0xba69...8e9d#8119¢$244.2Jun 20
BUYYES0xba69...8e9d#8119¢$105.2Jun 20
BUYYES0xba69...8e9d#8119¢$25Jun 20

Holder Concentration

33.8%$32.8K

22.7%$22.1K

20.1%$19.5K

9.4%$9.1K

8.4%$8.2K

3.5%$3.4K

0.9%$886.2

0.9%$875

+ 4 more wallets

0.3%$303.2

How committed capital is distributed. Top-5 wallets hold 94% of tracked capital (HHI 0.22). A high HHI means a few big convictions drive this market.

Participant P/L

≤ −$5K

−$5K…−$1K

−$1K…−$100

≈ flat

$100…$1K

$1K…$5K

≥ $5K

Distribution of tracked wallets’ P/L in this market. 5 winning, 0 losing (win rate 100%); net $24.3K across 12 wallets.

Smart-Money Lean

By headcount83% / 17%

one wallet, one vote

By capital80% / 20%

weighted by committed $

By skill82% / 18%

weighted by skill score — where the sharpest money sits

Three views of which side tracked traders favor. When the skill-weighted lean diverges from the headcount, the most proven wallets disagree with the crowd.

Contacts on Station

leaderboard wallets in this market · click a row for fills

	Contact	Side	State	Size	Avg Entry	Value	P/L	First Buy	Last Trade
	@cry.eth2 Rank #447.5 SIG	YES	open	652.88	6.7¢	$129	+$85 +193.9%	—	—
	0xb2bf...04d7 Rank #617.0 SIG	NO	open	76.63	83.9¢	$61	-$3 -4.4%	—	Jun 19, 2026
	@0x53eCc53E7 Rank #686.8 SIG	YES	open	20,000	16.8¢	$3,950	+$590 +17.6%	Jun 15, 2026	Jun 15, 2026
▸	0xba69...8e9d Rank #817.0 SIG	YES	open	43,473.96	18.8¢	$8,586	+$426 +5.3%	Jun 20, 2026	Jun 21, 2026
	@aff3 Rank #996.6 SIG	YES	open	187,903.9	17.4¢	$37,111	+$4,312 +13.2%	May 18, 2026	Jun 5, 2026
	@sssherra Rank #310.0 SIG	YES	closed	1,323,777.24	1.7¢	—	+$18,776 +85.1%	Jun 16, 2026	Jun 16, 2026
	@MGGA.eth Rank #79.6 SIG	NO	closed	39,073	50.0¢	—	+$0 0.0%	—	May 13, 2026
	0x371c...c236 Rank #159.1 SIG	YES	closed	119.76	16.7¢	—	-$0 -1.8%	Jun 14, 2026	Jun 14, 2026
	0xd396...4991 Rank #268.3 SIG	YES	closed	55,064.33	16.6¢	—	+$103 +1.1%	—	Jun 1, 2026
	0x5bb5...abf6 Rank #328.4 SIG	YES	closed	4,999.99	17.5¢	—	-$70 -8.0%	Jun 8, 2026	Jun 8, 2026
	@rocky42025 Rank #916.2 SIG	YES	closed	5,680.74	15.6¢	—	+$71 +8.0%	—	May 1, 2026
	0x6100...ed95 Rank #986.0 SIG	YES	closed	1,000	17.5¢	—	-$5 -2.9%	—	Jun 3, 2026