◆ Contact Dossier
@rocky42025
0x8929a63143fba9416c8e0d3c96388b429c47733e
6.3
/ 10 · 90D
Humpback
Class · est. size $338.7K
30-Day Window6.2 SIG
- Edge / share
- +5.0¢ · 337 resolved
- Hit rate
- 49.0%
- Net P/L · Vol
- $2.3K / $105K
- % return
- +2.7%
- Observations
- 365
90-Day Window6.3 SIG
- Edge / share
- +5.1¢ · 1,934 resolved
- Hit rate
- 48.9%
- Net P/L · Vol
- $13.6K / $338.7K
- % return
- +4.2%
- Observations
- 2,000
Dive Profile
Net Catch · 90D
+$14,088
Depth = mark-to-market P/L90-day trace
Current Positions
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg Entry | Current | Value | Unrealized P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,749.99 | 9.3¢ | 8.5¢ | $149 | -$14 |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 1,250.6 | 2.6¢ | 1.9¢ | $24 | -$8 |
| Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 1,250.01 | 1.1¢ | 0.9¢ | $12 | -$2 |
| Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1,250 | 0.4¢ | 0.1¢ | $2 | -$3 |
| Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 1,250 | 0.9¢ | 0.9¢ | $12 | +$1 |
| Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 1,250 | 1.2¢ | 0.9¢ | $12 | -$3 |
| Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 1,250 | 1.1¢ | 0.8¢ | $9 | -$4 |
| Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 1,250 | 1.4¢ | 0.9¢ | $11 | -$7 |
| Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 1,250 | 0.9¢ | 0.7¢ | $8 | -$4 |
| Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 1,250 | 0.8¢ | 0.8¢ | $9 | -$0 |
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 1,250 | 1.5¢ | 0.9¢ | $11 | -$8 |
| Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1,250 | 1.2¢ | 0.1¢ | $2 | -$13 |
| Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 1,250 | 0.7¢ | 0.9¢ | $12 | +$3 |
| Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 1,250 | 0.9¢ | 1.1¢ | $13 | +$2 |
| Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 1,249.99 | 1.1¢ | 1.1¢ | $14 | +$1 |
| Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 1,249.98 | 1.1¢ | 0.9¢ | $11 | -$4 |
| Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 1,249.95 | 0.7¢ | 0.9¢ | $11 | +$2 |
| Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1,249.92 | 1.3¢ | 1.3¢ | $16 | -$0 |
| Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1,249.92 | 0.5¢ | 0.1¢ | $2 | -$4 |
| Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1,249.91 | 0.5¢ | 0.3¢ | $3 | -$3 |
| Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1,249.69 | 0.8¢ | 0.7¢ | $8 | -$2 |
| Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 1,249.52 | 1.4¢ | 0.8¢ | $9 | -$8 |
| Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 1,249.51 | 0.8¢ | 0.9¢ | $11 | +$0 |
| Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 1,249.45 | 1.4¢ | 1.4¢ | $17 | -$1 |
| Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 1,249.43 | 2.0¢ | 0.9¢ | $11 | -$14 |
| Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1,249.3 | 1.7¢ | 1.6¢ | $19 | -$2 |
| Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 1,249.19 | 1.3¢ | 0.8¢ | $9 | -$7 |
| Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 1,249.01 | 0.7¢ | 0.9¢ | $11 | +$2 |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 1,242.97 | 0.9¢ | 0.1¢ | $1 | -$10 |
| Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 1,199.94 | 2.8¢ | 0.1¢ | $2 | -$31 |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 1,173.05 | 1.7¢ | 0.2¢ | $2 | -$18 |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 1,155.59 | 1.4¢ | 0.1¢ | $1 | -$16 |
| State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30? | Yes | 1,000.6 | 10.9¢ | 0.1¢ | $2 | -$107 |
| Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1,000 | 1.2¢ | 0.4¢ | $5 | -$8 |
| Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 1,000 | 0.4¢ | 0.8¢ | $8 | +$4 |
| Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1,000 | 0.2¢ | 0.1¢ | $1 | -$2 |
| Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 999.98 | 0.2¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$2 |
| Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat? | No | 993.88 | 15.0¢ | 15.0¢ | $149 | +$0 |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 750.7 | 1.3¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$9 |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $300B and $400B at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 585.27 | 0.7¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$4 |
| Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? | Yes | 575.67 | 10.3¢ | 0.5¢ | $3 | -$56 |
| Will Donald Trump visit North Dakota in 2026? | No | 522 | 23.7¢ | 12.5¢ | $65 | -$58 |
| Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 507.86 | 1.2¢ | 1.3¢ | $6 | +$0 |
| Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 506.05 | 1.2¢ | 0.9¢ | $4 | -$2 |
| Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | No | 449.98 | 14.4¢ | 14.8¢ | $67 | +$2 |
| Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 434.76 | 4.1¢ | 0.8¢ | $3 | -$15 |
| Nguesso out as President of the Republic of the Congo by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 383.13 | 20.9¢ | 12.5¢ | $48 | -$32 |
| Will Databricks’ market cap be between $125B and $150B at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 379.92 | 1.2¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$4 |
| Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 373.99 | 0.8¢ | 0.9¢ | $3 | +$0 |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $200B and $300B at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 330.56 | 0.5¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? | No | 327.67 | 40.0¢ | 40.5¢ | $133 | +$2 |
| SBF released from custody in 2026? | Yes | 299.32 | 6.0¢ | 4.7¢ | $14 | -$4 |
| Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 291.75 | 0.3¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the NC-06 House seat? | Yes | 289.07 | 16.2¢ | 12.5¢ | $36 | -$11 |
| Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? | Yes | 281.71 | 5.9¢ | 1.2¢ | $3 | -$13 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? | No | 260.57 | 95.6¢ | 96.8¢ | $252 | +$3 |
| Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 257.07 | 96.8¢ | 97.5¢ | $251 | +$2 |
| Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30? | Yes | 240.26 | 42.0¢ | 3.4¢ | $8 | -$93 |
| Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 238.2 | 12.0¢ | 9.5¢ | $23 | -$6 |
| Will Databricks’ market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 237 | 0.3¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? | No | 234.16 | 0.3¢ | 1.6¢ | $4 | +$3 |
| Will the Republican Party win the IL-04 House seat? | No | 158 | 96.1¢ | 97.2¢ | $153 | +$2 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the NC-08 House seat? | Yes | 137 | 12.0¢ | 12.0¢ | $16 | +$0 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the PA-03 House seat? | Yes | 137 | 94.0¢ | 94.5¢ | $129 | +$1 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 132.5 | 22.3¢ | 22.1¢ | $29 | -$0 |
| KBO: LG Twins vs. Samsung Lions | Yes | 125.27 | 35.8¢ | 52.0¢ | $65 | +$20 |
| Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31? | Yes | 120.91 | 17.0¢ | 19.5¢ | $24 | +$3 |
| Russia coup attempt in 2026? | Yes | 120 | 10.0¢ | 8.5¢ | $10 | -$2 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the FL-16 House seat? | Yes | 107.95 | 21.0¢ | 25.0¢ | $27 | +$4 |
| Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 8,000 in 2026? | Yes | 93.08 | 31.0¢ | 22.0¢ | $20 | -$8 |
| KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Lotte Giants | Yes | 70.48 | 39.0¢ | 52.5¢ | $37 | +$10 |
| Will Databricks’ market cap be between $200B and $250B at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 66.22 | 1.5¢ | 0.4¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will Databricks’ market cap be between $150B and $175B at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 47.1 | 1.3¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will the 2026 trade deficit be less than 500B? | Yes | 41.91 | 42.0¢ | 4.5¢ | $2 | -$16 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the CA-34 House seat? | No | 30 | 3.2¢ | 14.1¢ | $4 | +$3 |
| Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision? | No | 27.26 | 88.9¢ | 91.0¢ | $25 | +$1 |
| Will Christina Hines be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10? | No | 25.91 | 90.0¢ | 65.0¢ | $17 | -$6 |
| Will Blake Miguez be the Republican nominee for LA-05? | No | 9.53 | 55.0¢ | 87.0¢ | $8 | +$3 |
| Will Databricks’ market cap be $250B or greater at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 6.79 | 0.7¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Databricks’ market cap be between $100B and $125B at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 3.13 | 0.9¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026? | No | 3.1 | 15.1¢ | 71.5¢ | $2 | +$2 |
| Will New England Revolution win on 2026-03-07? | Yes | 2.83 | 20.0¢ | 47.5¢ | $1 | +$1 |
| Macron out by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 2.8 | 2.4¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1.99 | 4.4¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? | Yes | 1.69 | 4.7¢ | 2.4¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 10,000 in 2026? | No | 1.54 | 41.0¢ | 47.5¢ | $1 | +$0 |
| Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 1.29 | 99.3¢ | 99.8¢ | $1 | +$0 |
Trade History
| Market | Outcome | Avg Entry | Avg Exit | Bought | Sold | Last | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? | No | 0.3¢ | — | 238.86 | 0 | Jun 23, 2026 |
| ▸ | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? | Yes | 4.0¢ | 5.4¢ | 678.33 | 977 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? | No | 94.8¢ | 96.0¢ | 1,379 | 1,119.09 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Donald Trump visit North Dakota in 2026? | No | 23.7¢ | — | 522 | 0 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 99.3¢ | 99.7¢ | 209.88 | 209 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision? | No | — | 90.6¢ | 0 | 150.74 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the Republican Party win the NC-06 House seat? | No | — | 17.0¢ | 0 | 10 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | — | 1.6¢ | 0 | 1,249 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 22.3¢ | — | 132.06 | 0 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 65.2¢ | 62.2¢ | 383 | 382.56 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? | Yes | 4.0¢ | 3.8¢ | 247 | 10 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | — | 2.8¢ | 0 | 29 | Jun 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? | Yes | 5.3¢ | 28.8¢ | 66.27 | 230.91 | Jun 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | — | 37.5¢ | 0 | 34 | Jun 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 8,000 in 2026? | Yes | — | 35.0¢ | 0 | 1.36 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? | No | — | 0.5¢ | 0 | 199.44 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting? | No | 6.5¢ | 16.1¢ | 1,527.79 | 458.18 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| ▸ | KBO: LG Twins vs. Samsung Lions | Yes | — | 54.0¢ | 0 | 10 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| ▸ | No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 11.7¢ | 13.4¢ | 457.61 | 268.86 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? | Yes | — | 52.9¢ | 0 | 172.88 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? | No | 16.6¢ | — | 152.07 | 0 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? | No | 71.8¢ | 70.2¢ | 49.94 | 49.88 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? | Yes | 20.9¢ | 26.6¢ | 137.88 | 46.03 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| ▸ | No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? | No | 97.1¢ | 93.4¢ | 256 | 505.7 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? | Yes | 14.6¢ | 53.9¢ | 50.95 | 45 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | — | 7.6¢ | 0 | 299 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 17? | Yes | 32.0¢ | 14.1¢ | 11.76 | 0.14 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? | No | 86.0¢ | — | 62.81 | 0 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will two people dissent the June Fed decision? | No | 94.3¢ | — | 48.35 | 0 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? | Yes | — | 3.8¢ | 0 | 19 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | — | 97.7¢ | 0 | 1.02 | Jun 17, 2026 |