fomcLiveResolves Jul 29, 2026

Fed Decision in July?

View on Polymarket

YES Price

73.5¢

implied probability

24h Drift

+1.0¢

day-over-day

Volatility

2.3¢

daily price swing (σ)

Liquidity

$1.8M

order-book depth

24h Volume

$1.2M

traded last day

Smart $ Net

$8.6K

tracked buy − sell

Tracked Wallets

5 YES · 4 NO

Top Holder

70%

of tracked capital

Price History

No change25 bps increase25 bps decreaseWhale buyWhale sellRegime shift

YES implied probability over time (intraday resolution), with tracked whale trades overlaid at their YES-equivalent price so buys/sells sit on the line (marker size ∝ trade value). 3 regime shifts flagged — days where the consensus moved more than 2.5σ (likely news shocks).

Whale Activity

23 tracked fills

Tracked smart money is net buying ($8.6K net), leaning YES. Largest single move: BigRabbit bought $7.6K YES at 76¢ on Jun 21.

BUYYESBigRabbit#4776¢$7.6KJun 21
SELLYES0x72cb...5962#7678¢$764.7Jun 21
BUYNOFrigg#7126¢$539.2Jun 22
BUYYES0x72cb...5962#7678¢$473.1Jun 18
BUYYES0x72cb...5962#7675¢$455.6Jun 22
BUYYES0x72cb...5962#7672¢$358.6Jun 19
BUYYES0x72cb...5962#7675¢$303.8Jun 18
SELLYES0x72cb...5962#7678¢$267.6Jun 21

Holder Concentration

70.2%$21.7K

15.4%$4.8K

8.1%$2.5K

1.7%$520

1.5%$460.6

1.5%$450

0.8%$254

0.6%$185.4

+ 1 more wallets

0.2%$63.2

How committed capital is distributed. Top-5 wallets hold 97% of tracked capital (HHI 0.52). A high HHI means a few big convictions drive this market.

Participant P/L

≤ −$5K

−$5K…−$1K

−$1K…−$100

≈ flat

$100…$1K

$1K…$5K

≥ $5K

Distribution of tracked wallets’ P/L in this market. 3 winning, 2 losing (win rate 60%); net $4.8K across 9 wallets.

Smart-Money Lean

By headcount56% / 44%

one wallet, one vote

By capital95% / 5%

weighted by committed $

By skill54% / 46%

weighted by skill score — where the sharpest money sits

Three views of which side tracked traders favor. When the skill-weighted lean diverges from the headcount, the most proven wallets disagree with the crowd.

Contacts on Station

leaderboard wallets in this market · click a row for fills

	Contact	Side	State	Size	Avg Entry	Value	P/L	First Buy	Last Trade
▸	0x8a4c...2c4c Rank #209.1 SIG	NO	open	3,328.57	7.6¢	$915	+$661 +260.4%	Jun 15, 2026	Jun 21, 2026
	0x79d9...baec Rank #387.7 SIG	YES	open	2,631.58	95.0¢	$1,908	-$592 -23.7%	Jun 15, 2026	Jun 15, 2026
▸	@BigRabbit Rank #477.3 SIG	YES	open	29,702.13	73.0¢	$21,534	-$139 -0.6%	Jun 21, 2026	Jun 21, 2026
▸	0x72cb...5962 Rank #766.6 SIG	YES	open	600	75.0¢	$435	-$15 -3.3%	Jun 18, 2026	Jun 22, 2026
▸	@0xrandd8 Rank #129.2 SIG	NO	closed	842.66	22.0¢	—	-$3 -1.8%	Jun 20, 2026	Jun 21, 2026
	@cry.eth2 Rank #447.5 SIG	YES	closed	9,809	48.4¢	—	+$3,795 +79.9%	Jun 12, 2026	Jun 14, 2026
▸	@Frigg Rank #717.2 SIG	NO	closed	2,000	26.0¢	—	+$1,080 +207.7%	Jun 22, 2026	Jun 22, 2026
	@mcorleone Rank #787.1 SIG	YES	closed	86.15	73.4¢	—	+$18 +28.1%	—	Jun 6, 2026
	0x1ca4...f2d4 Rank #906.2 SIG	NO	closed	2,093.72	22.0¢	—	+$21 +4.5%	—	Mar 30, 2026