World ElectionsLiveResolves Sep 20, 2026

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

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YES Price

60.5¢

implied probability

24h Drift

0.0¢

day-over-day

Volatility

2.1¢

daily price swing (σ)

Liquidity

$951.2K

order-book depth

24h Volume

$115.7K

traded last day

Smart $ Net

$13.8K

tracked buy − sell

Tracked Wallets

7 YES · 1 NO

Top Holder

52%

of tracked capital

Price History

United Russia (ER)New People (NL)Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)Whale buyWhale sellRegime shift

YES implied probability over time (intraday resolution), with tracked whale trades overlaid at their YES-equivalent price so buys/sells sit on the line (marker size ∝ trade value). 3 regime shifts flagged — days where the consensus moved more than 2.5σ (likely news shocks).

Whale Activity

173 tracked fills

Tracked smart money is net buying ($13.8K net), leaning YES. Largest single move: a rank-#38 wallet bought $5.0K YES at 59¢ on Jun 22.

BUYYES0x79d9...baec#3859¢$5KJun 22
BUYYES0x02a1...dd72#6155¢$2.8KMay 13
BUYNO0xbd27...2807#1341¢$820Jun 11
BUYNO0xbd27...2807#1338¢$760Jun 14
BUYNO0xbd27...2807#1342¢$420Jun 11
BUYNO0xbd27...2807#1341¢$410Jun 13
BUYNO0xbd27...2807#1340¢$383.8May 25
BUYNO0xbd27...2807#1338¢$343.3Jun 21

Holder Concentration

51.9%$12.8K

23.5%$5.8K

20.3%$5K

2.7%$660

1.3%$330

0.3%$69.4

0.1%$33

How committed capital is distributed. Top-5 wallets hold 100% of tracked capital (HHI 0.37). A high HHI means a few big convictions drive this market.

Participant P/L

≤ −$5K

−$5K…−$1K

−$1K…−$100

≈ flat

$100…$1K

$1K…$5K

≥ $5K

Distribution of tracked wallets’ P/L in this market. 3 winning, 0 losing (win rate 100%); net $3.1K across 7 wallets.

Smart-Money Lean

By headcount88% / 12%

one wallet, one vote

By capital48% / 52%

weighted by committed $

By skill84% / 16%

weighted by skill score — where the sharpest money sits

Three views of which side tracked traders favor. When the skill-weighted lean diverges from the headcount, the most proven wallets disagree with the crowd.

Contacts on Station

leaderboard wallets in this market · click a row for fills

	Contact	Side	State	Size	Avg Entry	Value	P/L	First Buy	Last Trade
▸	0xbd27...2807 Rank #139.5 SIG	NO	open	39,402.95	32.6¢	$15,564	+$2,719 +21.2%	May 18, 2026	Jun 21, 2026
	0xd396...4991 Rank #268.3 SIG	YES	open	600	55.0¢	$363	+$33 +10.0%	—	—
▸	0x79d9...baec Rank #387.7 SIG	YES	open	8,500	59.0¢	$5,143	+$128 +2.5%	Jun 22, 2026	Jun 22, 2026
▸	0x02a1...dd72 Rank #617.4 SIG	YES	open	9,999.98	58.1¢	$6,050	+$240 +4.1%	May 13, 2026	May 13, 2026
	@Jep-G Rank #976.7 SIG	YES	open	50	66.0¢	$30	-$3 -8.3%	—	—
	@kevtp Rank #1006.0 SIG	YES	open	1,000	66.0¢	$605	-$55 -8.3%	—	—
▸	@cry.eth2 Rank #447.5 SIG	YES	closed	0	—	—	—	Jun 19, 2026	Jun 19, 2026
▸	0x27f2...4b62 Rank #936.0 SIG	YES	closed	124	56.0¢	—	+$0 0.0%	Jun 8, 2026	Jun 12, 2026