PoliticsLiveResolves Jun 21, 2026

Colombia Presidential Election

View on Polymarket

YES Price

99.3¢

implied probability

24h Drift

+0.1¢

day-over-day

Volatility

5.5¢

daily price swing (σ)

Liquidity

$7.2M

order-book depth

24h Volume

$1.1M

traded last day

Smart $ Net

-$346

tracked buy − sell

Tracked Wallets

7 YES · 1 NO

Top Holder

68%

of tracked capital

Price History

Abelardo de la EspriellaIván Cepeda CastroWhale buyWhale sellRegime shift

YES implied probability over time (intraday resolution), with tracked whale trades overlaid at their YES-equivalent price so buys/sells sit on the line (marker size ∝ trade value). 7 regime shifts flagged — days where the consensus moved more than 2.5σ (likely news shocks).

Whale Activity

99 tracked fills

Tracked smart money is net selling ($346 net), leaning YES. Largest single move: a rank-#11 wallet bought $9.2K YES at 86¢ on Jun 10.

BUYYES0x61ea...bbf7#1186¢$9.2KJun 10
SELLYES0xd24b...ef76#987¢$4.8KJun 17
SELLYES0xd24b...ef76#988¢$2.6KJun 16
SELLYES0x296b...2cf2#7083¢$2.4KMay 31
SELLYES0xe6fa...aeec#6483¢$1.2KJun 21
BUYYES0x61ea...bbf7#1138¢$974.7May 8
BUYYES0x296b...2cf2#7086¢$860Jun 14
BUYYES0xe6fa...aeec#6481¢$810Jun 21

Holder Concentration

67.9%$11.4K

16.6%$2.8K

11.8%$2K

1.4%$238.1

1.2%$210

0.9%$151.7

0.1%$23.5

How committed capital is distributed. Top-5 wallets hold 99% of tracked capital (HHI 0.50). A high HHI means a few big convictions drive this market.

Participant P/L

≤ −$5K

−$5K…−$1K

−$1K…−$100

≈ flat

$100…$1K

$1K…$5K

≥ $5K

Distribution of tracked wallets’ P/L in this market. 4 winning, 1 losing (win rate 80%); net $9.7K across 8 wallets.

Smart-Money Lean

By headcount88% / 12%

one wallet, one vote

By capital99% / 1%

weighted by committed $

By skill86% / 14%

weighted by skill score — where the sharpest money sits

Three views of which side tracked traders favor. When the skill-weighted lean diverges from the headcount, the most proven wallets disagree with the crowd.

Contacts on Station

leaderboard wallets in this market · click a row for fills

	Contact	Side	State	Size	Avg Entry	Value	P/L	First Buy	Last Trade
▸	0xd24b...ef76 Rank #99.5 SIG	NO	open	998.8	15.2¢	$8	-$143 -94.4%	Jun 16, 2026	Jun 21, 2026
▸	0x61ea...bbf7 Rank #119.6 SIG	YES	open	16,246.58	70.3¢	$16,108	+$4,694 +41.1%	May 7, 2026	Jun 10, 2026
▸	0xd396...4991 Rank #268.3 SIG	YES	open	250	84.0¢	$248	+$38 +18.2%	Jun 21, 2026	Jun 21, 2026
	@cry.eth2 Rank #447.5 SIG	YES	open	199.18	11.8¢	$198	+$174 +740.7%	—	—
	0xa43d...00f4 Rank #198.8 SIG	YES	closed	4,244.8	65.7¢	—	+$621 +22.3%	—	Jun 1, 2026
▸	@peepeehua Rank #338.0 SIG	YES	closed	670.77	35.5¢	—	-$20 -8.5%	Jun 22, 2026	Jun 22, 2026
▸	0xe6fa...aeec Rank #647.0 SIG	YES	closed	2,448.57	81.0¢	—	+$49 +2.5%	Jun 21, 2026	Jun 21, 2026
▸	0x296b...2cf2 Rank #707.3 SIG	YES	closed	0	60.9¢	—	+$4,283 +191.0%	May 20, 2026	Jun 21, 2026