TrumpLiveResolves Jun 30, 2026

Trump out as President by June 30?

View on Polymarket

YES Price

0.4¢

implied probability

24h Drift

0.0¢

day-over-day

Volatility

0.6¢

daily price swing (σ)

Liquidity

$396K

order-book depth

24h Volume

$111.1K

traded last day

Smart $ Net

$78.1K

tracked buy − sell

Tracked Wallets

0 YES · 3 NO

Top Holder

97%

of tracked capital

Price History

YES priceWhale buyWhale sellRegime shift

YES implied probability over time (intraday resolution), with tracked whale trades overlaid at their YES-equivalent price so buys/sells sit on the line (marker size ∝ trade value). 3 regime shifts flagged — days where the consensus moved more than 2.5σ (likely news shocks).

Whale Activity

40 tracked fills

Tracked smart money is net buying ($78.1K net), leaning NO. Largest single move: 0xAD96914D7762DAC84EbBABAfE366AE8ff24Dd49 bought $24.9K NO at 100¢ on Jun 22.

BUYNO0xAD96914D7762DAC84EbBABAfE366AE8ff24Dd49#99100¢$24.9KJun 22
BUYNO0xAD96914D7762DAC84EbBABAfE366AE8ff24Dd49#99100¢$19.7KJun 22
BUYNO0xAD96914D7762DAC84EbBABAfE366AE8ff24Dd49#99100¢$9.8KJun 22
BUYNO0xAD96914D7762DAC84EbBABAfE366AE8ff24Dd49#99100¢$6.2KJun 22
BUYNO0xAD96914D7762DAC84EbBABAfE366AE8ff24Dd49#99100¢$5KJun 22
BUYNO0xAD96914D7762DAC84EbBABAfE366AE8ff24Dd49#99100¢$2KJun 22
BUYNO0xAD96914D7762DAC84EbBABAfE366AE8ff24Dd49#99100¢$660.6Jun 22
BUYNO0xAD96914D7762DAC84EbBABAfE366AE8ff24Dd49#99100¢$637.4Jun 22

Holder Concentration

0xAD96914D7762DAC84EbBABAfE366AE8ff24Dd49#99

96.5%$78.1K

kevtp#100

2.3%$1.8K

eCash#73

1.2%$989

How committed capital is distributed. Top-5 wallets hold 100% of tracked capital (HHI 0.93). A high HHI means a few big convictions drive this market.

Participant P/L

≤ −$5K

−$5K…−$1K

−$1K…−$100

≈ flat

$100…$1K

$1K…$5K

≥ $5K

Distribution of tracked wallets’ P/L in this market. 0 winning, 0 losing (win rate —); net $86.7 across 3 wallets.

Smart-Money Lean

By headcount0% / 100%

one wallet, one vote

By capital0% / 100%

weighted by committed $

By skill0% / 100%

weighted by skill score — where the sharpest money sits

Three views of which side tracked traders favor. When the skill-weighted lean diverges from the headcount, the most proven wallets disagree with the crowd.

Contacts on Station

leaderboard wallets in this market · click a row for fills

	Contact	Side	State	Size	Avg Entry	Value	P/L	First Buy	Last Trade
	@eCash Rank #737.1 SIG	NO	open	1,000	98.9¢	$997	+$8 +0.8%	—	—
▸	@0xAD96914D7762DAC84EbBABAfE366AE8ff24Dd49 Rank #996.0 SIG	NO	open	78,376.66	99.6¢	$78,102	+$39 +0.1%	Jun 21, 2026	Jun 22, 2026
	@kevtp Rank #1006.0 SIG	NO	closed	2,000	92.0¢	—	+$40 +2.2%	—	Apr 7, 2026