Fed rate cut by...?
View on PolymarketPrice History
YES implied probability over time (intraday resolution), with tracked whale trades overlaid at their YES-equivalent price so buys/sells sit on the line (marker size ∝ trade value). 4 regime shifts flagged — days where the consensus moved more than 2.5σ (likely news shocks).
Whale Activity
Tracked smart money is net buying ($990 net), leaning YES. Largest single move: a rank-#20 wallet bought $1.1K YES at 29¢ on Jun 17.
- BUYYES0x8a4c...2c4c#2029¢$1.1KJun 17
- BUYNO0x5287...3a16#171¢$136.9Jun 17
- SELLNO0x5287...3a16#171¢$83.4Jun 17
- SELLYES0x8a4c...2c4c#2017¢$41.6Jun 19
- SELLNO0x5287...3a16#171¢$33.6Jun 17
- SELLNO0x5287...3a16#171¢$19.9Jun 17
- SELLYES0x8a4c...2c4c#2018¢$15Jun 19
- SELLYES0x8a4c...2c4c#2017¢$11.1Jun 19
Holder Concentration
How committed capital is distributed. Top-5 wallets hold 100% of tracked capital (HHI 0.39). A high HHI means a few big convictions drive this market.
Participant P/L
Distribution of tracked wallets’ P/L in this market. 0 winning, 1 losing (win rate 0%); net -$364 across 3 wallets.
Smart-Money Lean
Three views of which side tracked traders favor. When the skill-weighted lean diverges from the headcount, the most proven wallets disagree with the crowd.
Contacts on Station
| Contact | Side | State | Size | Avg Entry | Value | P/L | First Buy | Last Trade | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 0x8a4c...2c4c Rank #209.1 SIG | YES | open | 2,946.8 | 29.0¢ | $486 | -$368 -43.1% | Jun 17, 2026 | Jun 19, 2026 |
| @mcorleone Rank #787.1 SIG | NO | open | 600 | 77.0¢ | $501 | +$39 +8.4% | Jun 11, 2026 | Jun 11, 2026 | |
| ▸ | 0x5287...3a16 Rank #110.0 SIG | YES | closed | 1,441.27 | 23.0¢ | — | -$35 -10.5% | Jun 17, 2026 | Jun 17, 2026 |