California Governor Election Winner
View on PolymarketYES Price
89.3¢
implied probability
24h Drift
+0.1¢
day-over-day
Volatility
3.7¢
daily price swing (σ)
Liquidity
$6.7M
order-book depth
24h Volume
$337K
traded last day
Smart $ Net
$0
tracked buy − sell
Tracked Wallets
3
3 YES · 0 NO
Top Holder
49%
of tracked capital
Price History
Xavier BecerraSteve HiltonChad BiancoWhale buyWhale sellRegime shift
YES implied probability over time (intraday resolution), with tracked whale trades overlaid at their YES-equivalent price so buys/sells sit on the line (marker size ∝ trade value). 6 regime shifts flagged — days where the consensus moved more than 2.5σ (likely news shocks).
Whale Activity
No tracked whale trades in this market yet.
Holder Concentration
How committed capital is distributed. Top-5 wallets hold 100% of tracked capital (HHI 0.42). A high HHI means a few big convictions drive this market.
Participant P/L
Distribution of tracked wallets’ P/L in this market. 2 winning, 0 losing (win rate 100%); net $2.1K across 3 wallets.
Smart-Money Lean
By headcount100% / 0%
one wallet, one vote
By capital100% / 0%
weighted by committed $
By skill100% / 0%
weighted by skill score — where the sharpest money sits
Three views of which side tracked traders favor. When the skill-weighted lean diverges from the headcount, the most proven wallets disagree with the crowd.
Contacts on Station
| Contact | Side | State | Size | Avg Entry | Value | P/L | First Buy | Last Trade | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| @lomneivan Rank #179.2 SIG | YES | open | 2,635.83 | 40.7¢ | $2,354 | +$1,281 +119.5% | — | — | |
| 0xa43d...00f4 Rank #198.8 SIG | YES | open | 5,577.01 | 75.0¢ | $4,980 | +$800 +19.1% | Jun 3, 2026 | Jun 7, 2026 | |
| 0x79d9...baec Rank #387.7 SIG | YES | open | 5,700 | 88.2¢ | $5,090 | +$63 +1.2% | Jun 8, 2026 | Jun 9, 2026 |