Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
View on PolymarketPrice History
YES implied probability over time (intraday resolution), with tracked whale trades overlaid at their YES-equivalent price so buys/sells sit on the line (marker size ∝ trade value). 5 regime shifts flagged — days where the consensus moved more than 2.5σ (likely news shocks).
Whale Activity
Tracked smart money is net buying ($5.3K net), leaning NO. Largest single move: kevtp bought $1.8K NO at 92¢ on Jun 16.
Holder Concentration
How committed capital is distributed. Top-5 wallets hold 100% of tracked capital (HHI 0.59). A high HHI means a few big convictions drive this market.
Participant P/L
Distribution of tracked wallets’ P/L in this market. 2 winning, 1 losing (win rate 67%); net $601.2 across 5 wallets.
Smart-Money Lean
Three views of which side tracked traders favor. When the skill-weighted lean diverges from the headcount, the most proven wallets disagree with the crowd.
Contacts on Station
| Contact | Side | State | Size | Avg Entry | Value | P/L | First Buy | Last Trade | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7726...4aee Rank #288.2 SIG | NO | open | 999.99 | 65.0¢ | $935 | +$285 +43.8% | — | — | |
| @Jep-G Rank #986.7 SIG | NO | open | 5 | 88.0¢ | $5 | +$0 +6.3% | — | — | |
| ▸ | @kevtp Unranked | NO | open | 14,000.16 | 86.6¢ | $13,090 | +$967 +8.0% | Jun 11, 2026 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| @0x6992D56559Dd30b5B5D0F5cA3D5427F9e94e6c1d-1760272837095 Rank #706.7 SIG | YES | closed | 21,573.04 | 12.2¢ | — | -$711 -27.0% | Jun 14, 2026 | Jun 14, 2026 | |
| @eCash Rank #737.1 SIG | NO | closed | 1,000 | 81.0¢ | — | +$60 +7.4% | — | May 19, 2026 |