Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
View on PolymarketPrice History
YES implied probability over time (intraday resolution), with tracked whale trades overlaid at their YES-equivalent price so buys/sells sit on the line (marker size ∝ trade value). 1 regime shift flagged — days where the consensus moved more than 2.5σ (likely news shocks).
Whale Activity
Tracked smart money is net buying ($5.9K net), leaning NO. Largest single move: a rank-#38 wallet bought $3.1K NO at 86¢ on Jun 18.
- BUYNO0x79d9...baec#3886¢$3.1KJun 18
- BUYNO0x79d9...baec#3886¢$1.7KJun 18
- BUYNO0x6992D56559Dd30b5B5D0F5cA3D5427F9e94e6c1d-1760272837095#6980¢$800Jun 17
- BUYNO0x79d9...baec#3886¢$215Jun 18
- SELLYES0xrandd8#129¢$180.2Jun 21
- BUYNO0x79d9...baec#3886¢$70Jun 18
- BUYYES0xrandd8#129¢$45Jun 21
- BUYYES0xrandd8#1210¢$41.5Jun 20
Holder Concentration
How committed capital is distributed. Top-5 wallets hold 100% of tracked capital (HHI 0.68). A high HHI means a few big convictions drive this market.
Participant P/L
Distribution of tracked wallets’ P/L in this market. 2 winning, 0 losing (win rate 100%); net $352.3 across 3 wallets.
Smart-Money Lean
Three views of which side tracked traders favor. When the skill-weighted lean diverges from the headcount, the most proven wallets disagree with the crowd.
Contacts on Station
| Contact | Side | State | Size | Avg Entry | Value | P/L | First Buy | Last Trade | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | @0xrandd8 Rank #129.2 SIG | YES | open | 3,561.45 | 11.1¢ | $303 | -$93 -23.4% | Jun 20, 2026 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | 0x79d9...baec Rank #387.7 SIG | NO | open | 6,000 | 86.0¢ | $5,490 | +$330 +6.4% | Jun 18, 2026 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| ▸ | @0x6992D56559Dd30b5B5D0F5cA3D5427F9e94e6c1d-1760272837095 Rank #696.7 SIG | NO | open | 1,000 | 80.0¢ | $915 | +$115 +14.4% | Jun 17, 2026 | Jun 17, 2026 |