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@flameron
0xf2ab1d55462e3417a4c6e91affbe787d9c3a97a4
4.6
/ 10 · 90D
Narwhal
Class · est. size $553.2K
90-Day Window4.6 SIG
- Edge / share
- +2.5¢ · 59 resolved
- Hit rate
- 82.3%
- Net P/L · Vol
- $125.2 / $553.2K
- % return
- 0.0%
- Observations
- 119
Dive Profile
Return · 90D
0.0%
Hypothetical return if you’d copied every trade this wallet made starting from $100, staking 1% of your running balance on each — shown as % gain/loss vs that $100. Scrub the curve to read the markets that settled on any step in the Settlement Log below.
% return · $100 start · 1% per trade90-day trace
Current Positions
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg Entry | Current | Value | Unrealized P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 20,000 | 50.0¢ | 78.3¢ | $15,650 | +$5,650 (+56.5%) |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 20,000 | 50.0¢ | 21.8¢ | $4,350 | -$5,650 (-56.5%) |
| Extended FDV above $3B one day after launch? | No | 1,939.4 | 97.8¢ | 98.9¢ | $1,918 | +$22 (+1.2%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? | No | 1,700 | 97.5¢ | 98.5¢ | $1,674 | +$16 (+1.0%) |
| Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026? | Yes | 1,666.96 | 84.1¢ | 91.6¢ | $1,528 | +$126 (+9.0%) |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 1,600 | 92.1¢ | 93.5¢ | $1,496 | +$22 (+1.5%) |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | No | 1,556.33 | 86.9¢ | 87.5¢ | $1,362 | +$9 (+0.7%) |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | No | 1,200.01 | 95.8¢ | 95.7¢ | $1,148 | -$1 (-0.1%) |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 1,200 | 94.0¢ | 94.5¢ | $1,134 | +$6 (+0.5%) |
| Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 354.21 | 88.7¢ | 72.3¢ | $256 | -$58 (-18.6%) |
| Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? | Yes | 105.52 | 54.6¢ | 43.0¢ | $45 | -$12 (-21.2%) |
| Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | No | 3.78 | 82.0¢ | 95.5¢ | $4 | +$1 (+16.5%) |
| Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | No | 1.44 | 69.9¢ | 89.0¢ | $1 | +$0 (+27.3%) |
Trade History
| Market | Outcome | Avg Entry | Avg Exit | Bought | Sold | P/L | Last | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320 | No | 97.5¢ | — | 1,700 | 0 | — | Aug 6, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?will the us invade iran before 2027 | No | 74.4¢ | 77.9¢ | 5,050 | 8,356.46 | +$359 (+0.7%) | Aug 4, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?european military action on iran byptptpt 20260720022428140 | No | 98.2¢ | 99.7¢ | 2,500 | 2,000 | — | Aug 3, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?will the iranian regime fall by the end of 2026 | No | — | 92.4¢ | 0 | 2,800 | — | Aug 2, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026?will extended launch a token by | Yes | 82.2¢ | 86.4¢ | 430 | 300 | — | Jul 31, 2026 |
| ▸ | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31 | No | 99.7¢ | 99.5¢ | 3,000 | 2,200 | — | Jul 31, 2026 |
| ▸ | Iran leadership change by July 31?iran leadership change by | No | 99.1¢ | 99.8¢ | 1,400 | 1,400 | — | Jul 31, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?will china invade taiwan by june 30 2027 | No | 89.7¢ | 90.7¢ | 4,100 | 4,099.98 | — | Jul 31, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Cristiano Ronaldo announce his retirement in 2026?will cristiano ronaldo announce his retirement in 2026 | No | 82.0¢ | 88.6¢ | 193.44 | 193.43 | — | Jul 30, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?will the us confirm that aliens exist before 2027 | No | 94.0¢ | — | 1,200 | 0 | — | Jul 30, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?will china invade taiwan by december 31 2027 | No | 87.3¢ | 89.0¢ | 2,368.44 | 812.11 | — | Jul 30, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?will russia capture kostyantynivka by | Yes | 89.6¢ | 91.2¢ | 1,295.64 | 2,895.63 | — | Jul 30, 2026 |
| ▸ | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31 | No | 94.2¢ | 94.4¢ | 1,400 | 1,400 | — | Jul 29, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?fed decision in july 181 | Yes | 91.8¢ | 95.2¢ | 2,000 | 1,000 | +$353 (+6.8%) | Jul 29, 2026 |
| ▸ | Putin out as President of Russia by July 31, 2026?putin out before 2027 | No | — | 99.9¢ | 0 | 1,000.16 | — | Jul 29, 2026 |
| ▸ | Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?extended fdv above one day after launch | Yes | — | 78.0¢ | 0 | 300 | — | Jul 29, 2026 |
| ▸ | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 31 | No | 98.8¢ | — | 1,374.33 | 0 | — | Jul 26, 2026 |
| ▸ | Extended FDV above $3B one day after launch?extended fdv above one day after launch | No | 97.8¢ | 98.6¢ | 1,945.4 | 15 | — | Jul 24, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?european military action on iran byptptpt 20260720022428140 | No | 91.0¢ | 92.3¢ | 858.26 | 858.26 | — | Jul 23, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?fed decision in july 181 | No | 92.0¢ | 90.0¢ | 1,000 | 2,391.61 | — | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Trump out as President by June 30?trump out as president by june 30 | No | 98.6¢ | 100.6¢ | 11,259.43 | 11,259.43 | +$229 (+2.1%) | Jul 1, 2026 | |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?cl hit jun 2026 | No | 98.7¢ | 101.5¢ | 8,905.23 | 8,905.23 | +$251 (+2.9%) | Jul 1, 2026 | |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31 | No | 97.6¢ | 98.6¢ | 18,695.75 | 18,695.75 | +$179 (+1.0%) | Jul 1, 2026 | |
| Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?will russia invade a nato country in 2025 | No | 99.7¢ | 101.7¢ | 8,423.21 | 8,423.21 | +$166 (+2.0%) | Jul 1, 2026 | |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?largest company end of june 712 | Yes | 96.2¢ | 98.6¢ | 8,734.55 | 8,734.55 | +$204 (+2.4%) | Jun 30, 2026 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?will china invade taiwan before 2027 | No | 93.6¢ | 94.1¢ | 31,715.97 | 31,715.97 | +$170 (+0.6%) | Jun 20, 2026 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?will the iranian regime fall by june 30 | No | 99.4¢ | 100.4¢ | 61,018.75 | 61,018.75 | +$610 (+1.0%) | Jun 17, 2026 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?will the iranian regime fall by may 31 | No | 98.9¢ | 99.7¢ | 37,406.99 | 37,406.99 | +$302 (+0.8%) | May 23, 2026 | |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?what price will wti hit in may 2026 | No | 97.9¢ | 99.2¢ | 12,579.22 | 12,579.22 | +$164 (+1.3%) | May 22, 2026 | |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?will satoshi move any bitcoin in 2026 | No | 90.9¢ | 91.6¢ | 29,292.34 | 29,292.34 | +$217 (+0.8%) | May 12, 2026 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?will the iranian regime fall by april 30 | No | 96.8¢ | 98.3¢ | 10,200 | 10,200 | +$156 (+1.6%) | Apr 13, 2026 | |
| Netanyahu out by March 31?netanyahu out before 2027 | No | 99.9¢ | 100.7¢ | 20,849.95 | 20,849.95 | +$170 (+0.8%) | Apr 5, 2026 | |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929 | No | 98.9¢ | 100.2¢ | 11,973.2 | 11,973.2 | +$154 (+1.3%) | Apr 1, 2026 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?will the iranian regime fall by march 31 | No | 99.8¢ | 100.2¢ | 47,797.47 | 47,797.47 | +$187 (+0.4%) | Apr 1, 2026 | |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?super bowl champion 2026 731 | Yes | 68.2¢ | 90.9¢ | 1,429.21 | 1,429.21 | +$325 (+33.3%) | Feb 9, 2026 | |
| Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw?epl not cry | Yes | 23.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 434.78 | 434.78 | +$335 (+334.8%) | Feb 1, 2026 | |
| Pelicans vs. 76ersnba nop phi | 76ers | 79.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 700 | 700 | +$147 (+26.6%) | Feb 1, 2026 | |
| Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-01-30?lal esp ala | No | 51.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 392.16 | 392.16 | +$192 (+96.1%) | Jan 31, 2026 | |
| Nets vs. Nuggetsnba bkn den | Nuggets | 70.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 714.29 | 714.29 | +$214 (+42.9%) | Jan 30, 2026 | |
| Trail Blazers vs. Celticsnba por bos | Celtics | 72.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 700 | 700 | +$196 (+38.9%) | Jan 27, 2026 | |
| UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card)ufc son sea1 | OMalley | 66.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 400 | 400 | +$136 (+51.5%) | Jan 25, 2026 | |
| Nuggets vs. Bucksnba den mil | Nuggets | 33.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 443.33 | 443.33 | +$297 (+203.0%) | Jan 24, 2026 | |
| Suns vs. Hawksnba phx atl | Hawks | 42.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 509.29 | 509.29 | +$295 (+138.1%) | Jan 24, 2026 | |
| Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-22?uel fen1 ast4 | Yes | 34.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 441.18 | 441.18 | +$291 (+194.1%) | Jan 23, 2026 | |
| Raptors vs. Warriorsnba tor gsw | Raptors | 40.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 250 | 250 | +$150 (+150.0%) | Jan 21, 2026 | |
| Spurs vs. Rocketsnba sas hou | Rockets | 60.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 980 | 980 | +$392 (+66.7%) | Jan 21, 2026 | |
| Suns vs. 76ersnba phx phi | Suns | 50.9¢ | 100.0¢ | 657.96 | 657.96 | +$323 (+96.4%) | Jan 21, 2026 | |
| Thunder vs. Heatnba okc mia | Heat | 23.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 434.78 | 434.78 | +$335 (+334.8%) | Jan 18, 2026 | |
| Hornets vs. Lakersnba cha lal | Hornets | 42.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 250 | 250 | +$145 (+138.1%) | Jan 16, 2026 | |
| Kraken vs. Devilsnhl sea nj | Devils | 57.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 526.32 | 526.32 | +$226 (+75.4%) | Jan 15, 2026 | |
| Lightning vs. Flyersnhl tb phi | Lightning | 73.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 550 | 550 | +$149 (+37.0%) | Jan 13, 2026 | |
| 49ers vs. Eaglesnfl sf phi | 49ers | 33.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 400.91 | 400.91 | +$269 (+203.0%) | Jan 12, 2026 | |
| Rockets vs. Kingsnba hou sac | Kings | 17.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 294.12 | 294.12 | +$244 (+488.2%) | Jan 12, 2026 | |
| Bills vs. Jaguarsnfl buf jax | Bills | 51.4¢ | 100.0¢ | 396.47 | 396.47 | +$193 (+94.6%) | Jan 12, 2026 | |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolvesnba sas min | Timberwolves | 56.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 350 | 350 | +$154 (+78.6%) | Jan 12, 2026 | |
| Mavericks vs. Jazznba dal uta | Jazz | 33.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 300 | 300 | +$201 (+203.0%) | Jan 9, 2026 | |
| Lakers vs. Pelicansnba lal nop | Lakers | 65.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 615.38 | 615.38 | +$215 (+53.8%) | Jan 7, 2026 | |
| Lions vs. Bearsnfl det chi | Lions | 37.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 310.81 | 310.81 | +$196 (+170.3%) | Jan 5, 2026 | |
| 76ers vs. Grizzliesnba phi mem | 76ers | 52.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 384.62 | 384.62 | +$185 (+92.3%) | Dec 31, 2025 | |
| Spurs vs. Thundernba sas okc | Spurs | 21.5¢ | 100.0¢ | 274.46 | 274.46 | +$215 (+365.2%) | Dec 26, 2025 | |
| 49ers vs. Coltsnfl sf ind | 49ers | 69.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 579.83 | 579.83 | +$180 (+45.0%) | Dec 23, 2025 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?elon musk of tweets november 4 november 11 | Yes | 73.5¢ | 100.0¢ | 596.47 | 596.47 | +$158 (+36.1%) | Nov 12, 2025 | |
| Penguins vs. Devilsnhl pit nj | Devils | 64.0¢ | 99.0¢ | 1,062.5 | 1,062.5 | +$372 (+54.7%) | Nov 8, 2025 | |
| Blues vs. Sabresnhl stl buf | Blues | 46.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 1,195.65 | 1,195.65 | +$646 (+117.4%) | Nov 7, 2025 | |
| Timberwolves vs. Knicksnba min nyk | Knicks | 60.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 1,250 | 1,250 | +$500 (+66.7%) | Nov 6, 2025 | |
| Lakers vs. Trail Blazersnba lal por | Lakers | 43.8¢ | 99.9¢ | 1,027.31 | 1,027.31 | +$576 (+128.1%) | Nov 4, 2025 | |
| Stars vs. Panthersnhl dal fla | Panthers | 56.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 741.07 | 741.07 | +$326 (+78.6%) | Nov 2, 2025 | |
| Raptors vs. Mavericksnba tor dal | Mavericks | 53.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 388.68 | 388.68 | +$183 (+88.7%) | Oct 27, 2025 |