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0xed34...5a7f
0xed3475fa18296311ce1ccc6e9bd9206da9a65a7f
4.4
/ 10 · 90D
Narwhal
Class · est. size $3.4K
90-Day Window4.4 SIG
- Edge / share
- +2.3¢ · 35 resolved
- Hit rate
- 26.4%
- Net P/L · Vol
- -$92.7 / $3.4K
- % return
- -2.1%
- Observations
- 72
Dive Profile
Return · 90D
0.0%
Hypothetical return if you’d copied every trade this wallet made starting from $100, staking 1% of your running balance on each — shown as % gain/loss vs that $100. Scrub the curve to read the markets that settled on any step in the Settlement Log below.
% return · $100 start · 1% per trade90-day trace
Current Positions
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg Entry | Current | Value | Unrealized P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | No | 50 | 64.0¢ | 61.5¢ | $31 | -$1 (-3.9%) |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 50 | 44.0¢ | 43.6¢ | $22 | -$0 (-0.8%) |
| Will Tim O'Hare win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election? | Yes | 38 | 60.0¢ | 45.5¢ | $17 | -$6 (-24.2%) |
| Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in July? | Yes | 28 | 32.5¢ | 27.5¢ | $8 | -$1 (-15.4%) |
| Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by at least 30%? | Yes | 25 | 61.5¢ | 15.5¢ | $4 | -$12 (-74.8%) |
Trade History
| Market | Outcome | Avg Entry | Avg Exit | Bought | Sold | P/L | Last | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?republican presidential nominee 2028 | Yes | 44.0¢ | — | 50 | 0 | — | Aug 6, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Auyl win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections?kazakhstan kurultai election 2nd place 20260713225045611 | Yes | 71.0¢ | 71.0¢ | 50 | 50 | — | Aug 6, 2026 |
| ▸ | National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo Musettiatp jodar musetti | Lorenzo Musetti | 44.0¢ | 44.0¢ | 82 | 82 | — | Aug 6, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will "Hacks" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys?how many emmys will hacks win 20260720191814491 | No | 63.0¢ | 30.6¢ | 50 | 50 | — | Aug 5, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?how many fed rate hikes in 2026 20260623190717369 | No | 64.0¢ | — | 50 | 0 | — | Aug 4, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Tim O'Hare win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election?2026 tarrant county judge election winner 20260626003334863 | Yes | 60.0¢ | — | 38 | 0 | — | Aug 4, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?spider man brand new day total domestic gross by august 31 20260716181307512 | Yes | 33.0¢ | 29.6¢ | 50 | 50 | — | Aug 3, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in July?core cpi yoy july 2026 20260714151811920 | Yes | 32.5¢ | 23.0¢ | 56 | 28 | — | Aug 2, 2026 |
| ▸ | Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871 | No | 60.0¢ | 60.0¢ | 50 | 50 | +$0 (0.0%) | Aug 2, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by at least 30%?wisconsin governor democratic primary margin of victory 20260727211906203 | Yes | 61.5¢ | 22.0¢ | 50 | 25 | — | Aug 2, 2026 |
| ▸ | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?clarity act signed into law in 2026 | No | 64.3¢ | 64.3¢ | 300 | 300 | +$0 (0.0%) | Aug 2, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?brazil presidential election | No | 33.0¢ | 33.0¢ | 100 | 100 | +$0 (0.0%) | Aug 1, 2026 |
| ▸ | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?clarity act signed into law in 2026 | Yes | 28.9¢ | 28.3¢ | 700 | 700 | — | Jul 31, 2026 |
| ▸ | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?us x iran effective ceasfire byptptpt 2 week pause 20260715194822042 | Yes | 40.0¢ | 40.0¢ | 200 | 200 | +$0 (0.0%) | Jul 31, 2026 |
| ▸ | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?us announces end of iranian blockade byptptpt 20260713152715080 | Yes | 38.0¢ | 38.0¢ | 20 | 20 | +$0 (0.0%) | Jul 30, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?mo 01 democratic primary winner | No | 59.0¢ | 58.7¢ | 33 | 32.99 | — | Jul 29, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Spirit Win BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2?blast bounty 2026 season 2 winner 20260709030103861 | No | 51.5¢ | 51.5¢ | 101 | 101 | +$49 (+96.1%) | Jul 28, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will PH win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections?2026 negeri sembilan general election winner 20260720213330399 | Yes | 33.0¢ | 25.3¢ | 50 | 50 | — | Jul 28, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?will samuel alito announce his retirement by | No | 72.0¢ | 72.6¢ | 131.96 | 131.96 | +$1 (+0.7%) | Jul 27, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?how many fed rate cuts in 2026 | Yes | 82.0¢ | 82.0¢ | 50 | 50 | +$0 (0.0%) | Jul 27, 2026 |
| ▸ | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?will mitch mcconnell resign from the senate before his term ends | Yes | 34.5¢ | 34.5¢ | 400 | 400 | +$0 (0.0%) | Jul 27, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?will russia capture vodianske byptptpt 20260724162613570 | Yes | 53.0¢ | 53.0¢ | 33.43 | 33.43 | +$0 (0.0%) | Jul 26, 2026 |
| ▸ | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by | No | 72.0¢ | 72.0¢ | 50 | 50 | +$0 (0.0%) | Jul 25, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?which cities will russia enter by december 31 | Yes | 65.0¢ | 65.0¢ | 50 | 50 | +$0 (0.0%) | Jul 24, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?fed decisions jun sep | No | 48.7¢ | 43.0¢ | 104 | 104 | — | Jul 23, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?fed decisions juloct 20260617191209856 | Yes | 62.0¢ | 62.0¢ | 50 | 50 | +$0 (0.0%) | Jul 23, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?ballon dor winner 2026 | Yes | 26.0¢ | 26.0¢ | 66 | 66 | — | Jul 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?ballon dor winner 2026 | Yes | 40.0¢ | 40.0¢ | 76 | 76 | +$0 (0.0%) | Jul 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?ballon dor winner 2026 | No | 65.0¢ | 65.0¢ | 50 | 50 | +$0 (0.0%) | Jul 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?nba 2027 champion | No | 74.0¢ | 74.0¢ | 50 | 50 | +$0 (0.0%) | Jul 14, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?world cup nation to reach final | No | 65.0¢ | 59.0¢ | 100 | 100 | — | Jul 13, 2026 |
| ▸ | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320 | Yes | 20.0¢ | 20.0¢ | 200 | 200 | — | Jul 12, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?largest company end of july 20260624192302727 | No | 17.5¢ | 16.5¢ | 100 | 100 | — | Jul 10, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?largest company end of july 20260624192302727 | Yes | 83.0¢ | 83.0¢ | 50 | 50 | +$9 (+20.5%) | Jul 10, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by 20260607234645733 | Yes | 37.0¢ | 37.0¢ | 200 | 200 | +$0 (0.0%) | Jul 7, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Switzerland reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?world cup nation to reach quarterfinals | No | 59.0¢ | 59.0¢ | 50 | 50 | -$30 (-100.0%) | Jul 7, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by | No | 52.0¢ | 52.0¢ | 50 | 50 | +$0 (0.0%) | Jul 6, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?world cup nation to reach semifinals | Yes | 49.0¢ | 49.0¢ | 85 | 85 | +$43 (+104.1%) | Jul 6, 2026 |
| ▸ | Over $40M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?total commitments for the laso finance public sale on metadao | Yes | 53.0¢ | 53.0¢ | 100 | 100 | -$53 (-100.0%) | Jul 2, 2026 |
| ▸ | UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)ufc max1 con | Max Holloway | 65.0¢ | 65.0¢ | 59 | 59 | +$21 (+53.8%) | Jul 1, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026?will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811 | Yes | 22.0¢ | 22.0¢ | 200 | 200 | -$44 (-100.0%) | Jun 30, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup?world cup furthest advancing caf nation | Yes | 25.0¢ | 25.0¢ | 67 | 67 | +$50 (+300.0%) | Jun 30, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June?what price will bitcoin hit in june 2026 | Yes | 15.0¢ | 1.0¢ | 50 | 50 | — | Jun 29, 2026 |
| ▸ | Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?tyler robinson convicted of homicide | Yes | 51.0¢ | 51.0¢ | 58 | 58 | — | Jun 27, 2026 |
| ▸ | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15 | Yes | 26.0¢ | 28.0¢ | 200 | 200 | +$4 (+7.7%) | Jun 25, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?which party will gain most seats in russian parliamentary election | Yes | 60.0¢ | 60.0¢ | 67 | 67 | +$0 (0.0%) | Jun 23, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?world cup group i winner | Yes | 30.0¢ | — | 200 | 0 | — | Jun 23, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June?what price will bitcoin hit in june 2026 | No | 51.0¢ | 52.0¢ | 92 | 92 | +$1 (+2.0%) | Jun 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?which party will gain most seats in russian parliamentary election | No | 40.0¢ | 40.0¢ | 59 | 59 | +$0 (0.0%) | Jun 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610 | Yes | 60.0¢ | 60.0¢ | 100 | 100 | +$40 (+66.7%) | Jun 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026?iem cologne major 2026 reach the grand final | Yes | 43.0¢ | 43.0¢ | 100 | 100 | -$43 (-100.0%) | Jun 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?world cup team to advance to knockout stages | Yes | 42.0¢ | 42.0¢ | 50 | 50 | +$29 (+138.1%) | Jun 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | Fed rate hike in 2026?fed rate hike in 2026 | No | 38.0¢ | 38.0¢ | 200 | 200 | +$0 (0.0%) | Jun 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of june | Yes | 20.1¢ | 21.1¢ | 985 | 985 | +$10 (+6.3%) | Jun 18, 2026 |
| ▸ | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by june 30 | Yes | 40.0¢ | 43.0¢ | 200 | 200 | +$6 (+7.5%) | Jun 17, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?iran closes its airspace byptptpt 20260609184135829 | Yes | 20.0¢ | 14.0¢ | 240 | 240 | — | Jun 15, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?world cup group l winner | Yes | 69.0¢ | 69.0¢ | 50 | 50 | +$16 (+44.9%) | Jun 15, 2026 |
| ▸ | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?us iran nuclear deal by june 30 | No | 39.3¢ | 39.4¢ | 293.55 | 293.55 | +$0 (+0.1%) | Jun 14, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?2026 nba champion | No | 17.6¢ | 17.8¢ | 54 | 54 | +$0 (+1.2%) | Jun 11, 2026 |
| ▸ | Knicks vs. Spursnba nyk sas | Knicks | 36.0¢ | 36.0¢ | 50 | 50 | — | Jun 10, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?anthropic ipo by | No | 60.0¢ | 60.0¢ | 24 | 24 | +$0 (0.0%) | Jun 9, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?claude mythos released by | Yes | 37.0¢ | 37.0¢ | 200 | 200 | — | Jun 8, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?cl hit jun 2026 | No | 53.0¢ | 53.0¢ | 50 | 50 | — | Jun 8, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?cl hit jun 2026 | Yes | 35.5¢ | 32.0¢ | 100 | 100 | — | Jun 7, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?how high will inflation get in 2026 | Yes | 62.0¢ | 62.0¢ | 50 | 50 | +$0 (0.0%) | Jun 5, 2026 |
| ▸ | US strike on Cuba by December 31?us strike on cuba by | Yes | 49.0¢ | 49.0¢ | 46.04 | 46.04 | +$0 (0.0%) | Jun 2, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June?what price will bitcoin hit in june 2026 | Yes | 39.0¢ | 40.0¢ | 50 | 50 | +$1 (+2.6%) | Jun 2, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?cl hit jun 2026 | No | 52.0¢ | 52.0¢ | 25 | 25 | -$13 (-100.0%) | May 30, 2026 |
| ▸ | Ebola case in the US by June 30?ebola case in the us by june 30 | Yes | 31.0¢ | 28.4¢ | 200 | 200 | — | May 30, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?who will be the next prime minister of israel after the next election | Yes | 33.0¢ | 28.0¢ | 100 | 100 | — | May 30, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?colombia presidential election | No | 65.0¢ | 67.0¢ | 55 | 55 | +$1 (+3.0%) | May 27, 2026 |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by | Yes | 38.0¢ | 0.0¢ | 200 | 200 | -$76 (-100.0%) | May 26, 2026 | |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026?starmer out in 2025 | Yes | 24.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 200 | 200 | +$152 (+316.7%) | May 25, 2026 | |
| Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election2026 seoul mayoral election winner | No | 66.0¢ | 0.0¢ | 100 | 100 | -$66 (-100.0%) | May 23, 2026 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?us x iran permanent peace deal by | Yes | 15.0¢ | 0.0¢ | 339 | 339 | -$51 (-100.0%) | May 22, 2026 | |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?us iran nuclear deal by may 31 974 | Yes | 12.0¢ | 0.0¢ | 100 | 100 | -$12 (-100.0%) | May 21, 2026 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?will the us invade cuba in 2026 | No | 76.0¢ | 76.0¢ | 100 | 100 | +$0 (0.0%) | May 20, 2026 |