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@sdiff123
0xd352f30eed085d974d01430fc919b1702acd4ad6
5.4
/ 10 · 90D
Beluga
Class · est. size $233.3K
90-Day Window5.4 SIG
- Edge / share
- +6.2¢ · 46 resolved
- Hit rate
- 70.5%
- Net P/L · Vol
- $18.5K / $233.3K
- % return
- +8.3%
- Observations
- 61
Dive Profile
Return · 90D
+407%
Hypothetical return if you’d copied every trade this wallet made starting from $100, staking 1% of your running balance on each — shown as % gain/loss vs that $100. Scrub the curve to read the markets that settled on any step in the Settlement Log below.
Settlement LogJun 30
+407%
Open positions marked to today’s prices — no markets settled this day.
% return · $100 start · 1% per trade90-day trace
Current Positions
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg Entry | Current | Value | Unrealized P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026? | No | 5,000 | 92.8¢ | 95.5¢ | $4,775 | +$136 (+2.9%) |
| Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026? | No | 4,999.97 | 81.0¢ | 74.0¢ | $3,700 | -$350 (-8.6%) |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | Yes | 15,341.89 | 17.4¢ | 17.1¢ | $2,623 | -$55 (-2.1%) |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? | Yes | 1,899.78 | 69.5¢ | 51.5¢ | $978 | -$342 (-25.9%) |
| Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | Yes | 561.48 | 85.0¢ | 98.0¢ | $551 | +$73 (+15.4%) |
| Ostium FDV above $700M one day after launch? | No | 368.96 | 75.0¢ | 95.3¢ | $352 | +$75 (+27.1%) |
| Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? | No | 150 | 12.0¢ | 91.5¢ | $137 | +$119 (+662.5%) |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 3,041.76 | 6.6¢ | 3.6¢ | $111 | -$89 (-44.4%) |
| Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | Yes | 1,000 | 9.6¢ | 2.5¢ | $25 | -$71 (-74.0%) |
| Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | No | 49.25 | 52.0¢ | 41.0¢ | $20 | -$5 (-21.2%) |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? | Yes | 137.88 | 43.0¢ | 11.0¢ | $15 | -$44 (-74.4%) |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? | No | 15 | 38.0¢ | 78.5¢ | $12 | +$6 (+106.6%) |
| Will 4 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | Yes | 467.24 | 0.6¢ | 1.3¢ | $6 | +$3 (+108.3%) |
| Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 1.1 | 94.0¢ | 98.5¢ | $1 | +$0 (+4.7%) |
Trade History
| Market | Outcome | Avg Entry | Avg Exit | Bought | Sold | P/L | Last | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?will russia capture kostyantynivka by | Yes | — | 56.0¢ | 0 | 1,264.34 | — | Aug 6, 2026 |
| ▸ | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by december 31 | No | 47.0¢ | 38.0¢ | 4,000 | 4,000 | — | Aug 6, 2026 |
| ▸ | Fed rate hike in 2026?fed rate hike in 2026 | Yes | 65.7¢ | 70.2¢ | 4,413.49 | 4,413.48 | — | Aug 6, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?berlin state election winner | Yes | 17.5¢ | — | 15,341.89 | 0 | — | Aug 2, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?who will trump publicly insult by july 31 20260626210612709 | No | 97.3¢ | 99.8¢ | 10,000 | 10,000 | — | Aug 1, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 55 by July 31?what will the bitcoin implied volatility index hit by july 31 | No | 99.0¢ | — | 155 | 0 | — | Jul 31, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 60 by July 31?what will the bitcoin implied volatility index hit by july 31 | No | 99.5¢ | — | 663 | 0 | — | Jul 31, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 70 by July 31?what will the bitcoin implied volatility index hit by july 31 | No | 99.7¢ | — | 4,950 | 0 | — | Jul 31, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 65 by July 31?what will the ethereum implied volatility index hit by july 31 | No | 98.0¢ | — | 50 | 0 | — | Jul 31, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 70 by July 31?what will the ethereum implied volatility index hit by july 31 | No | 98.0¢ | — | 1,000 | 0 | — | Jul 31, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?how many fed rate hikes in 2026 20260623190717369 | Yes | 9.6¢ | — | 1,000 | 0 | — | Jul 29, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 35 by July 31?what will the bitcoin implied volatility index hit by july 31 | No | 98.9¢ | — | 655 | 0 | — | Jul 29, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?will iran target ukraine byptptpt 20260727234956916 | No | 92.8¢ | — | 5,000 | 0 | — | Jul 28, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will 4 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?how many fed rate hikes in 2026 20260623190717369 | Yes | 0.6¢ | — | 467.24 | 0 | — | Jul 28, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Squid launch a token by October 31, 2026?will squid launch a token by | Yes | 70.0¢ | — | 1,000 | 0 | — | Jul 28, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Squid launch a token by September 30, 2026?will squid launch a token by | Yes | 66.0¢ | — | 1,000 | 0 | — | Jul 28, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?next french presidential election | No | — | 88.0¢ | 0 | 8,793.25 | — | Jul 28, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Squid launch a token by September 30, 2026?will squid launch a token by | No | 50.0¢ | 40.0¢ | 1,000 | 1,000 | — | Jul 27, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Squid launch a token by July 31, 2026?will squid launch a token by | No | 90.0¢ | — | 1,000 | 0 | — | Jul 26, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 50 by July 31?what will the ethereum implied volatility index hit by july 31 | No | 64.0¢ | — | 52 | 0 | — | Jul 25, 2026 |
| ▸ | US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?us x russia military clash by | Yes | — | 5.0¢ | 0 | 313.02 | — | Jul 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by | Yes | — | 16.0¢ | 0 | 4,000 | — | Jul 21, 2026 |
| UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)ufc max1 con | Max Holloway | 70.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 14,285.7 | 14,285.7 | +$4,286 (+42.9%) | Jul 12, 2026 | |
| Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?world cup nation to reach round of 16 | Yes | 63.3¢ | 88.4¢ | 21,857.47 | 21,857.47 | +$5,485 (+39.6%) | Jul 4, 2026 | |
| Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?world cup nation to reach round of 16 | Yes | 68.2¢ | 87.6¢ | 9,999.99 | 9,999.99 | +$1,935 (+28.4%) | Jul 1, 2026 | |
| Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?world cup nation to reach round of 16 | Yes | 64.6¢ | 100.0¢ | 10,000 | 10,000 | +$3,541 (+54.8%) | Jun 30, 2026 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?russia x ukraine ceasefire by may 31 2026 | No | 60.3¢ | 75.0¢ | 21,099.02 | 21,099.02 | +$3,097 (+24.3%) | May 8, 2026 | |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31 | No | 81.0¢ | 95.0¢ | 29,999.99 | 29,999.99 | +$4,200 (+17.3%) | Jan 17, 2026 | |
| Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands in 2025?putin and zelenskyy shake hands by october 31 | No | 77.1¢ | 97.8¢ | 26,048.79 | 26,048.79 | +$5,390 (+26.8%) | Jan 1, 2026 | |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?lighter market cap fdv one day after launch | Yes | 69.7¢ | 92.1¢ | 20,000 | 20,000 | +$4,466 (+32.0%) | Dec 30, 2025 | |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?lighter market cap fdv one day after launch | Yes | 33.4¢ | 54.0¢ | 60,567.54 | 60,567.54 | +$12,487 (+61.8%) | Dec 30, 2025 | |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?super bowl champion 2026 731 | Yes | 4.7¢ | 10.0¢ | 51,646.98 | 51,646.98 | +$2,723 (+111.0%) | Dec 29, 2025 | |
| California redistricting referendum passes?california redistricting referendum passes | Yes | 90.0¢ | 99.7¢ | 17,880.98 | 17,880.98 | +$1,729 (+10.7%) | Dec 14, 2025 | |
| HCL Million Dollar Marathon: Alan Keating VPIP above 70%?hcl million dollar marathon alan keating vpip above 70 | No | 68.4¢ | 91.7¢ | 7,815.27 | 7,815.27 | +$1,818 (+34.0%) | Dec 3, 2025 | |
| MegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in the first hour?megaeth 250m pre deposit bridge filled in the first hour | No | 4.2¢ | 35.0¢ | 13,000 | 13,000 | +$4,005 (+734.9%) | Nov 25, 2025 | |
| MegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in 15 minutes?megaeth 250m pre deposit bridge filled in the first hour | Yes | 17.6¢ | 44.0¢ | 29,511.32 | 29,511.32 | +$7,804 (+150.6%) | Nov 25, 2025 | |
| Will 风无向 Web3Feng win the Synthetix trading competition?who will win the synthetix trading competition | No | 41.0¢ | 80.5¢ | 21,857.65 | 21,857.65 | +$8,629 (+96.2%) | Nov 18, 2025 | |
| Will gmoney win the Synthetix trading competition?who will win the synthetix trading competition | Yes | 1.5¢ | 60.0¢ | 6,000 | 6,000 | +$3,512 (+4003.7%) | Nov 17, 2025 | |
| Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025?lol worlds 2025 winner | Yes | 62.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 18,400 | 18,400 | +$6,992 (+61.3%) | Nov 9, 2025 | |
| Will Omar Fateh win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election?minneapolis mayoral election 665 | No | 99.0¢ | 103.0¢ | 89,669.1 | 89,669.1 | +$3,621 (+4.1%) | Nov 6, 2025 | |
| Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale?over 1pt8b committed to the megaeth public sale | Yes | 55.0¢ | 74.4¢ | 21,217.39 | 21,217.39 | +$4,124 (+35.3%) | Oct 29, 2025 | |
| Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election?ireland presidential election | Yes | 74.7¢ | 89.4¢ | 38,694.16 | 38,694.16 | +$5,701 (+19.7%) | Oct 27, 2025 | |
| Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?nobel peace prize 2025 | No | 96.3¢ | 99.5¢ | 75,099.26 | 75,099.26 | +$2,399 (+3.3%) | Oct 10, 2025 | |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?new york city mayoral election | No | 11.5¢ | 33.9¢ | 86,413.48 | 86,413.48 | +$19,353 (+194.7%) | Oct 2, 2025 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?russia x ukraine ceasefire before october | No | 81.8¢ | 100.0¢ | 46,694.59 | 46,694.59 | +$8,486 (+22.2%) | Oct 1, 2025 | |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?new york city mayoral election | Yes | 13.0¢ | 19.1¢ | 39,470 | 39,470 | +$2,401 (+46.6%) | Sep 30, 2025 | |
| Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025new jersey governor election winner 2025 | No | 15.1¢ | 23.9¢ | 35,408.65 | 35,408.65 | +$3,108 (+58.0%) | Sep 28, 2025 | |
| Will Jack Ciattarelli win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025new jersey governor election winner 2025 | Yes | 15.4¢ | 22.4¢ | 28,079.98 | 28,079.98 | +$1,948 (+45.0%) | Sep 28, 2025 | |
| Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31?will putin meet with zelenskyy by august 31 | No | 79.8¢ | 95.0¢ | 17,999.99 | 17,999.99 | +$2,745 (+19.1%) | Sep 1, 2025 | |
| Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?will putin meet with zelenskyy in 2025 | No | 54.1¢ | 73.0¢ | 21,946.19 | 21,946.19 | +$4,143 (+34.9%) | Aug 28, 2025 | |
| Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?romania presidential election winner | Yes | 62.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 5,850 | 5,850 | +$2,223 (+61.3%) | May 21, 2025 | |
| Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb Mar 11-17?will strategy purchase bitcoin feb mar 11 17 | Yes | 3.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 5,717.06 | 5,717.06 | +$5,540 (+3230.0%) | Mar 17, 2025 | |
| Ethena crash in 2024?ethena exploit depeg in 2024 | Yes | 12.0¢ | 49.6¢ | 4,999.95 | 4,999.95 | +$1,882 (+313.7%) | Feb 24, 2025 | |
| Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?presidential election winner 2024 | Yes | 2.9¢ | 17.0¢ | 108,968.85 | 108,968.85 | +$15,298 (+477.9%) | Feb 24, 2025 | |
| Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?afd of vote in german election | Yes | 60.0¢ | 77.3¢ | 22,185.89 | 22,185.89 | +$3,832 (+28.8%) | Feb 23, 2025 | |
| Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?will trump create a national bitcoin reserve in his first 100 days | No | 56.3¢ | 87.7¢ | 38,285.86 | 38,285.86 | +$12,000 (+55.7%) | Feb 23, 2025 | |
| Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) <$10b one day after launch?eigenlayer market cap fdv one day after launch | Yes | 80.7¢ | 95.8¢ | 21,311.5 | 21,311.5 | +$3,214 (+18.7%) | Oct 1, 2024 | |
| Will Kamala lead by 1.6-2.0 or more points on September 20?trump vs harris polling sept 20 | Yes | 9.0¢ | 84.7¢ | 2,999.98 | 2,999.98 | +$2,270 (+841.4%) | Sep 21, 2024 | |
| Will Fed cut interest rates 4 times in 2024?how many fed rate cuts this year | Yes | 25.3¢ | 28.5¢ | 138,343.46 | 138,343.46 | +$4,369 (+12.5%) | Sep 8, 2024 | |
| Will Fed cut interest rates 2 times in 2024?how many fed rate cuts this year | Yes | 9.0¢ | 19.5¢ | 40,593.07 | 40,593.07 | +$4,282 (+117.2%) | Sep 4, 2024 | |
| Will Fed cut interest rates 3 times in 2024?how many fed rate cuts this year | Yes | 33.8¢ | 38.3¢ | 136,348.7 | 136,348.7 | +$6,120 (+13.3%) | Sep 4, 2024 | |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting?fed interest rates september 2024 | Yes | 23.0¢ | 33.4¢ | 72,821.1 | 72,821.1 | +$7,584 (+45.3%) | Sep 4, 2024 | |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting?fed interest rates september 2024 | Yes | 71.0¢ | 79.5¢ | 48,106.55 | 48,106.55 | +$4,102 (+12.0%) | Sep 4, 2024 | |
| Trump flips Kamala on Nate Silver's Bulletin?trump flips kamala on nate silvers bulletin | Yes | 22.6¢ | 71.2¢ | 5,064.1 | 5,064.1 | +$2,461 (+215.1%) | Aug 29, 2024 | |
| Pavel Durov released in August?pavel durov released in august | Yes | 38.8¢ | 90.3¢ | 10,678.09 | 10,678.09 | +$5,497 (+132.6%) | Aug 28, 2024 | |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?presidential election winner 2024 | Yes | 51.1¢ | 53.7¢ | 150,322.87 | 150,322.87 | +$3,911 (+5.1%) | Aug 21, 2024 | |
| Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election?virginia presidential election winner | Yes | 86.0¢ | 94.1¢ | 56,018.68 | 56,018.68 | +$4,558 (+9.5%) | Aug 20, 2024 | |
| Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election?virginia presidential election winner | No | 13.0¢ | 38.6¢ | 7,000 | 7,000 | +$1,790 (+196.7%) | Aug 20, 2024 | |
| Will Harris lead by 0.6-1 points on August 16?trump vs harris rcp polling margin on aug 16 | Yes | 19.4¢ | 82.7¢ | 11,629.33 | 11,629.33 | +$7,357 (+326.1%) | Aug 16, 2024 | |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?presidential election winner 2024 | No | 47.0¢ | 53.2¢ | 55,399.23 | 55,399.23 | +$3,422 (+13.1%) | Aug 3, 2024 | |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?democratic nominee 2024 | Yes | 89.0¢ | 93.7¢ | 81,815.45 | 81,815.45 | +$3,843 (+5.3%) | Jul 23, 2024 | |
| Biden drops out of presidential race?will biden drop out of presidential race | Yes | 55.4¢ | 67.4¢ | 25,760.42 | 25,760.42 | +$3,079 (+21.6%) | Jul 18, 2024 |