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0xb081...6f50
0xb0818c856b924358810a436faa5ad8bbf3856f50
5.5
/ 10 · 90D
Beluga
Class · est. size $1.3K
90-Day Window5.5 SIG
- Edge / share
- +8.2¢ · 34 resolved
- Hit rate
- 40.0%
- Net P/L · Vol
- $32.2 / $1.3K
- % return
- +3.1%
- Observations
- 45
Dive Profile
Return · 90D
0.0%
Hypothetical return if you’d copied every trade this wallet made starting from $100, staking 1% of your running balance on each — shown as % gain/loss vs that $100. Scrub the curve to read the markets that settled on any step in the Settlement Log below.
% return · $100 start · 1% per trade90-day trace
Current Positions
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg Entry | Current | Value | Unrealized P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | No | 118 | 25.0¢ | 50.5¢ | $60 | +$30 (+102.0%) |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 157.9 | 19.0¢ | 13.5¢ | $21 | -$9 (-28.9%) |
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | Yes | 54.41 | 18.4¢ | 8.5¢ | $5 | -$5 (-53.8%) |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 190.16 | 5.3¢ | 1.1¢ | $2 | -$8 (-80.0%) |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 100 | 10.0¢ | 1.7¢ | $2 | -$8 (-83.5%) |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 50 | 10.0¢ | 2.8¢ | $1 | -$4 (-72.5%) |
Trade History
| Market | Outcome | Avg Entry | Avg Exit | Bought | Sold | P/L | Last | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?claude fable 5 restored for us customers by 20260613193753196 | No | 97.5¢ | 99.0¢ | 164.19 | 164.18 | +$3 (+1.6%) | Jun 18, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026?anthropic ipo by | No | 97.0¢ | 99.5¢ | 30.93 | 30.92 | +$1 (+2.6%) | Jun 18, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18?bitcoin above on june 18 2026 | No | 99.9¢ | 100.0¢ | 95.1 | 0 | +$0 (+0.1%) | Jun 18, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?which party will win the house in 2026 | Yes | 19.9¢ | 19.0¢ | 201.37 | 43.47 | — | Jun 18, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?what iranian demands will trump agree to by june 30 | Yes | 3.9¢ | 5.3¢ | 256.41 | 256.41 | +$4 (+37.1%) | Jun 18, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?world cup winner | Yes | 17.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 17.65 | 0 | +$15 (+488.2%) | Jun 11, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2?bitcoin above on june 2 2026 | Yes | 99.2¢ | 0.0¢ | 35.28 | 0 | -$35 (-100.0%) | Jun 1, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?claude mythos released by | No | 92.0¢ | 0.0¢ | 59.78 | 0 | -$55 (-100.0%) | Jun 1, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?what iranian demands will trump agree to by june 30 | Yes | 34.8¢ | 100.0¢ | 86.14 | 0 | +$56 (+187.1%) | Jun 1, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?world cup winner | Yes | 11.3¢ | — | 114.42 | 0 | — | May 31, 2026 |
| ▸ | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by june 30 | Yes | 18.0¢ | 22.0¢ | 111.11 | 23.33 | — | May 31, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?world cup winner | Yes | 17.6¢ | 17.0¢ | 56.82 | 56.81 | -$0 (-3.4%) | May 31, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?what iranian demands will trump agree to by may 31 | Yes | 3.9¢ | 0.0¢ | 128.33 | 0 | -$5 (-100.0%) | May 31, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Claude Code Commits hit (LOW) 400.0k by May 31?claude code commits hit by may 31 | No | 97.4¢ | 100.0¢ | 154.08 | 0 | +$4 (+2.7%) | May 28, 2026 |
| ▸ | Claude 4.8 released by May 31?claude 4pt8 released by | No | 16.7¢ | 0.0¢ | 179.82 | 0 | -$30 (-100.0%) | May 28, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?fed decision in september 762 | No | 25.0¢ | — | 118 | 0 | — | May 28, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?how many fed rate cuts in 2026 | Yes | 10.0¢ | — | 50 | 0 | — | May 25, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?how many fed rate cuts in 2026 | Yes | 18.4¢ | — | 54.41 | 0 | — | May 25, 2026 |
| ▸ | Starmer out by December 31, 2026?starmer out in 2025 | Yes | 82.0¢ | 71.0¢ | 12.2 | 12.19 | -$1 (-13.4%) | May 25, 2026 |
| ▸ | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of may | Yes | 7.0¢ | 3.2¢ | 71.43 | 71.42 | -$3 (-54.5%) | May 25, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?what iranian demands will trump agree to by may 31 | Yes | 41.8¢ | 0.0¢ | 47.82 | 0 | -$20 (-100.0%) | May 25, 2026 |
| ▸ | Israel closes its airspace by May 31?israel closes its airspace by | No | 54.0¢ | 94.0¢ | 18.52 | 18.51 | +$7 (+74.0%) | May 25, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 27?bitcoin above on may 27 2026 | No | 98.7¢ | 100.0¢ | 30.4 | 0 | +$0 (+1.3%) | May 25, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?fed decision in september 762 | Yes | 5.3¢ | — | 190.16 | 0 | — | May 25, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?fed decision in september 762 | Yes | 10.0¢ | — | 100 | 0 | — | May 25, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?what iranian demands will trump agree to by may 31 | Yes | 3.9¢ | 4.3¢ | 1,031.55 | 333.33 | -$26 (-58.1%) | May 25, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?what price will wti hit in may 2026 | Yes | 28.8¢ | 30.0¢ | 52.1 | 52.1 | +$1 (+4.2%) | May 23, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?will ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by may 31 | No | 95.0¢ | 80.0¢ | 52.63 | 52.63 | -$8 (-15.7%) | May 23, 2026 |
| ▸ | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by may 31 945 | No | 95.1¢ | 81.7¢ | 57.83 | 57.83 | -$8 (-14.1%) | May 23, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Solana dip to $70 in May?what price will solana hit in may 2026 | Yes | 7.6¢ | 7.4¢ | 117.55 | 117.55 | -$0 (-2.8%) | May 23, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?what price will ethereum hit in may 2026 | Yes | 72.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 138.89 | 0 | +$39 (+38.9%) | May 23, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?will russia enter huliaipilske by april 30 | No | 6.9¢ | 0.0¢ | 291.71 | 0 | -$20 (-100.0%) | May 23, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?world cup winner | Yes | 8.7¢ | — | 114.94 | 0 | — | May 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?world cup winner | Yes | 5.2¢ | — | 192.31 | 0 | — | May 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?trump xi summit what will china announce by may 22 | No | 14.0¢ | 0.0¢ | 162.63 | 0 | -$23 (-100.0%) | May 14, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Trump say "Farm" or "Farmer" during Chinese State Banquet?what will trump say during china state banquet | Yes | 40.0¢ | 0.0¢ | 30 | 0 | -$12 (-100.0%) | May 14, 2026 |
| ▸ | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?us x iran permanent peace deal by | Yes | 34.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 99.99 | 0 | +$66 (+194.1%) | May 14, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Solana dip to $80 in May?what price will solana hit in may 2026 | Yes | 31.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 47.81 | 0 | +$33 (+222.6%) | May 14, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?what price will bitcoin hit in may 2026 | Yes | 53.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 196.46 | 0 | +$92 (+88.7%) | May 14, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 May 11-17?what price will ethereum hit may 11 17 | Yes | 17.0¢ | 10.0¢ | 29.41 | 29.41 | -$2 (-41.2%) | May 14, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14?bitcoin above on may 14 | Yes | 3.5¢ | 0.0¢ | 334.21 | 0 | -$12 (-100.0%) | May 14, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19?gemini 3pt2 released on | No | 9.0¢ | 13.1¢ | 55.56 | 55.55 | +$2 (+45.4%) | May 14, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 20?gemini 3pt2 released on | Yes | 4.5¢ | 0.0¢ | 208.92 | 0 | -$10 (-100.0%) | May 13, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?what price will wti hit in may 2026 | No | 80.0¢ | 80.0¢ | 12.5 | 12.5 | +$2 (+25.0%) | May 13, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Cerebras' market cap be between $80B and $90B at market close on IPO day?cerebras ipo closing market cap 539 | Yes | 12.3¢ | 0.0¢ | 47.71 | 0 | -$6 (-100.0%) | May 13, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?how long will trump and xi shake hands when they meet | Yes | 7.2¢ | 0.0¢ | 111.8 | 0 | -$8 (-100.0%) | May 13, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?how long will trump and xi shake hands when they meet | Yes | 16.5¢ | 15.0¢ | 121.53 | 34.02 | -$15 (-74.5%) | May 13, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?what will trump say during bilateral events with xi jinping | No | 18.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 83.33 | 0 | +$68 (+455.6%) | May 13, 2026 |
| ▸ | Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?gemini 3pt5 released by june 30 | Yes | 10.9¢ | 8.0¢ | 45.87 | 45.87 | -$1 (-26.6%) | May 13, 2026 |
| ▸ | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?hantavirus pandemic in 2026 | No | 92.0¢ | 92.2¢ | 16.3 | 16.3 | +$0 (+0.2%) | May 13, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?what price will wti hit in may 2026 | Yes | 33.0¢ | 0.0¢ | 15.15 | 0 | -$5 (-100.0%) | May 13, 2026 |