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@Risto
0xa17325d33b095b6bb48d475a3578fecbdff73315
4.8
/ 10 · 90D
Narwhal
Class · est. size $138.2K
90-Day Window4.8 SIG
- Edge / share
- +4.8¢ · 27 resolved
- Hit rate
- 65.3%
- Net P/L · Vol
- $7.6K / $138.2K
- % return
- +4.1%
- Observations
- 49
Dive Profile
Return · 90D
-2.1%
Hypothetical return if you’d copied every trade this wallet made starting from $100, staking 1% of your running balance on each — shown as % gain/loss vs that $100. Scrub the curve to read the markets that settled on any step in the Settlement Log below.
Settlement LogSep 3
-2.1%
Open positions marked to today’s prices — no markets settled this day.
% return · $100 start · 1% per trade90-day trace
Current Positions
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg Entry | Current | Value | Unrealized P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 6,800.02 | 84.0¢ | 84.5¢ | $5,746 | +$34 (+0.6%) |
| Ethereal FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 5,000 | 58.0¢ | 93.5¢ | $4,675 | +$1,775 (+61.2%) |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | No | 4,999.96 | 42.4¢ | 41.1¢ | $2,055 | -$64 (-3.0%) |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Yes | 3,976.3 | 42.8¢ | 41.5¢ | $1,650 | -$54 (-3.1%) |
| Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch? | No | 1,500.44 | 77.9¢ | 76.5¢ | $1,148 | -$21 (-1.8%) |
| StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 1,090.57 | 76.2¢ | 89.0¢ | $971 | +$140 (+16.8%) |
| Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? | No | 1,000.33 | 77.3¢ | 83.0¢ | $830 | +$57 (+7.4%) |
| Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026? | Yes | 1,325.48 | 54.0¢ | 55.5¢ | $736 | +$20 (+2.8%) |
| Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | No | 700 | 83.0¢ | 85.5¢ | $599 | +$18 (+3.0%) |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? | No | 500.02 | 75.9¢ | 96.2¢ | $481 | +$102 (+26.8%) |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027? | Yes | 999.97 | 51.0¢ | 47.0¢ | $470 | -$40 (-7.8%) |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | No | 299.99 | 85.5¢ | 96.4¢ | $289 | +$33 (+12.7%) |
| Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? | Yes | 355.2 | 51.0¢ | 71.5¢ | $254 | +$73 (+40.2%) |
| Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Yes | 299.99 | 69.0¢ | 83.5¢ | $250 | +$43 (+21.0%) |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | Yes | 4,500 | 4.6¢ | 5.0¢ | $223 | +$16 (+7.6%) |
| Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? | No | 221.99 | 86.7¢ | 97.2¢ | $216 | +$23 (+12.1%) |
| Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 7,125.95 | 1.6¢ | 0.1¢ | $11 | -$103 (-90.6%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | 53.65 | 63.1¢ | 18.5¢ | $10 | -$24 (-70.7%) |
| StandX FDV above $400M one day after launch? | No | 5.25 | 63.9¢ | 70.5¢ | $4 | +$0 (+10.3%) |
| Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 3,705 | 0.6¢ | 0.1¢ | $2 | -$20 (-91.7%) |
| Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? | No | 1.01 | 86.4¢ | 71.5¢ | $1 | -$0 (-17.3%) |
Trade History
| Market | Outcome | Avg Entry | Avg Exit | Bought | Sold | P/L | Last | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?presidential election winner 2028 | Yes | — | 0.5¢ | 0 | 2,976 | — | Oct 6, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?nevada governor winner 2026 | Yes | 54.0¢ | — | 1,325.48 | 0 | — | Oct 5, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?los angeles mayoral election 117 | No | 42.4¢ | — | 4,999.96 | 0 | — | Oct 3, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?israel election likud of seats | No | 83.0¢ | — | 700 | 0 | — | Oct 1, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?los angeles mayoral election 117 | Yes | 42.9¢ | — | 4,000 | 0 | — | Oct 1, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?los angeles mayoral election 117 | No | 58.0¢ | — | 23.7 | 0 | — | Sep 28, 2026 |
| ▸ | Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?variational fdv above one day after launch | No | — | 77.3¢ | 0 | 498.99 | — | Sep 28, 2026 |
| ▸ | Unit FDV above $200M one day after launch?unit fdv above one day after launch | Yes | — | 38.5¢ | 0 | 2,000 | — | Sep 27, 2026 |
| ▸ | Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold?russia elections a just russia clears duma threshold | Yes | 62.6¢ | — | 328.91 | 0 | — | Sep 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?how many seats will united russia win in the next russian legislative election | Yes | 68.3¢ | 100.0¢ | 1,051.18 | 0 | +$333 (+46.4%) | Sep 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?which party will gain most seats in russian parliamentary election | No | 98.0¢ | 99.0¢ | 1,000 | 1,000 | — | Sep 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Yabloko win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?which parties will win at least one seat in the next russian state duma election | No | 95.0¢ | — | 324.48 | 0 | — | Sep 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?russia parliamentary election winner | Yes | 95.6¢ | 99.7¢ | 10,018.47 | 10,018.47 | +$407 (+4.3%) | Sep 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?which party will gain most seats in russian parliamentary election | Yes | 62.4¢ | 72.6¢ | 25,999.94 | 5,550.29 | +$5,817 (+35.9%) | Sep 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?which party will gain most seats in russian parliamentary election | Yes | 1.5¢ | 2.4¢ | 18,405.01 | 11,091.99 | — | Sep 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027?russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement by | Yes | 51.0¢ | — | 999.97 | 0 | — | Sep 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?russia elections yabloko clears duma threshold | No | 95.8¢ | 99.9¢ | 8,368.05 | 8,368.05 | +$344 (+4.3%) | Sep 18, 2026 |
| ▸ | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?tesla and spacex merger officially announced by june 30 | No | — | 97.8¢ | 0 | 1,999.92 | — | Sep 17, 2026 |
| ▸ | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?clarity act signed into law in 2026 | Yes | 4.6¢ | — | 4,500 | 0 | — | Sep 15, 2026 |
| ▸ | Printr FDV above $50M one day after launch?printr fdv above one day after launch | No | — | 89.7¢ | 0 | 15.53 | — | Sep 15, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?which party will gain most seats in russian parliamentary election | Yes | 15.8¢ | 16.4¢ | 477.23 | 477.2 | — | Sep 13, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?will the us invade iran before 2027 | No | 84.0¢ | — | 2,500 | 0 | — | Sep 10, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will FC Utrecht win on 2026-09-05?ere utr goa | No | 81.2¢ | 93.9¢ | 1,310.78 | 1,310.77 | — | Sep 8, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Go Ahead Eagles win on 2026-09-05?ere utr goa | Yes | 69.1¢ | — | 2.63 | 0 | — | Sep 7, 2026 |
| Paraguay vs. France: Team to Advancefifwc par fra 2026 07 04 more markets | France | 92.5¢ | 100.0¢ | 9,285.85 | 9,285.85 | +$700 (+8.2%) | Jul 5, 2026 | |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?putin out before 2027 | No | 88.0¢ | 88.9¢ | 40,123.33 | 40,123.33 | +$348 (+1.0%) | Jul 3, 2026 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?will reza pahlavi enter iran by june 30 | No | 85.6¢ | 100.0¢ | 4,000 | 4,000 | +$577 (+16.9%) | Jul 1, 2026 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?will the iranian regime fall by june 30 | No | 79.6¢ | 95.1¢ | 10,133.48 | 10,133.48 | +$1,578 (+19.6%) | Jul 1, 2026 | |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?iran leader end of 2026 | Yes | 36.6¢ | 67.8¢ | 1,271.99 | 1,271.99 | +$397 (+85.3%) | Jun 26, 2026 | |
| Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?spacex ipo by | Yes | 68.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 1,001.98 | 1,001.98 | +$321 (+47.0%) | Jun 12, 2026 | |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 8?iran closes its airspace by | Yes | 81.9¢ | 100.0¢ | 5,486.9 | 5,486.9 | +$993 (+22.1%) | Jun 12, 2026 | |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?hantavirus pandemic in 2026 | No | 90.8¢ | 95.6¢ | 10,706.28 | 10,706.28 | +$511 (+5.3%) | Jun 11, 2026 | |
| Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 6?solana price on june 6 2026 | Yes | 78.3¢ | 100.0¢ | 13,471.08 | 13,471.08 | +$2,919 (+27.7%) | Jun 7, 2026 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?will the iranian regime fall by may 31 | No | 97.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 12,615.96 | 12,615.96 | +$376 (+3.1%) | Jun 1, 2026 | |
| StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch?standx fdv above one day after launch | No | 78.5¢ | 92.4¢ | 5,385.75 | 5,385.75 | +$749 (+17.7%) | May 29, 2026 | |
| Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?opensea fdv above one day after launch | No | 52.7¢ | 74.3¢ | 2,999.94 | 2,999.94 | +$647 (+40.9%) | May 21, 2026 | |
| Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?uefa europa league winner | Yes | 72.2¢ | 100.0¢ | 2,652.61 | 2,652.61 | +$738 (+38.6%) | May 21, 2026 | |
| Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?opensea fdv above one day after launch | No | 32.5¢ | 46.8¢ | 8,286.23 | 8,286.23 | +$1,185 (+44.0%) | May 11, 2026 | |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?next prime minister of hungary | No | 14.1¢ | 15.6¢ | 23,499.67 | 23,499.67 | +$339 (+10.2%) | May 9, 2026 | |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?trump announces end of military operations against iran by | Yes | 35.8¢ | 69.3¢ | 2,424 | 2,424 | +$813 (+93.8%) | May 1, 2026 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?will the iranian regime fall by april 30 | No | 97.8¢ | 100.0¢ | 24,999.99 | 24,999.99 | +$545 (+2.2%) | May 1, 2026 | |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?megaeth market cap fdv one day after launch | No | 27.9¢ | 30.5¢ | 25,625.87 | 25,625.87 | +$674 (+9.4%) | May 1, 2026 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?russia x ukraine ceasefire by april 30 2026 | No | 94.7¢ | 97.8¢ | 25,052 | 25,052 | +$782 (+3.3%) | May 1, 2026 | |
| USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch?usdai fdv above one day after launch | No | 75.5¢ | 91.7¢ | 3,018.97 | 3,018.97 | +$488 (+21.4%) | Apr 24, 2026 | |
| USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?usdai fdv above one day after launch | No | 26.3¢ | 60.7¢ | 2,999.06 | 2,999.06 | +$1,032 (+131.1%) | Apr 23, 2026 | |
| Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?metamask fdv above one day after launch | No | 60.9¢ | 74.3¢ | 9,715.37 | 9,715.37 | +$1,303 (+22.0%) | Apr 16, 2026 | |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?jd vance diplomatic meeting with iran by | No | 60.2¢ | 81.9¢ | 2,000 | 2,000 | +$435 (+36.1%) | Apr 11, 2026 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?us x iran ceasefire by | Yes | 40.2¢ | 79.1¢ | 9,072.92 | 9,072.92 | +$3,527 (+96.6%) | Apr 8, 2026 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?us x iran ceasefire by | Yes | 59.3¢ | 92.7¢ | 7,998.82 | 7,998.82 | +$2,671 (+56.3%) | Apr 8, 2026 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?us x iran ceasefire by | Yes | 28.5¢ | 37.0¢ | 14,941.95 | 14,941.95 | +$1,264 (+29.6%) | Apr 8, 2026 | |
| EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?edgex fdv above one day after launch | No | 44.0¢ | 62.3¢ | 3,000 | 3,000 | +$549 (+41.6%) | Apr 1, 2026 | |
| EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?edgex fdv above one day after launch | No | 45.0¢ | 55.0¢ | 18,000 | 18,000 | +$1,794 (+22.1%) | Apr 1, 2026 | |
| Based FDV above $300M one day after launch?based fdv above one day after launch | No | 73.9¢ | 90.1¢ | 8,053.91 | 8,053.91 | +$1,306 (+21.9%) | Apr 1, 2026 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?us x iran ceasefire by | No | 92.3¢ | 100.0¢ | 7,179.69 | 7,179.69 | +$553 (+8.3%) | Apr 1, 2026 | |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31 | Yes | 81.3¢ | 95.7¢ | 3,664.98 | 3,664.98 | +$528 (+17.7%) | Mar 26, 2026 | |
| Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?backpack fdv above one day after launch | No | 9.5¢ | 18.0¢ | 22,999.64 | 22,999.64 | +$1,940 (+88.4%) | Mar 25, 2026 | |
| Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?backpack fdv above one day after launch | No | 33.1¢ | 80.1¢ | 19,583.15 | 19,583.15 | +$9,209 (+142.2%) | Mar 25, 2026 | |
| Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?backpack fdv above one day after launch | No | 54.3¢ | 65.5¢ | 14,246.54 | 14,246.54 | +$1,592 (+20.6%) | Mar 24, 2026 | |
| Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?backpack fdv above one day after launch | No | 66.7¢ | 80.3¢ | 8,644.29 | 8,644.29 | +$1,174 (+20.4%) | Mar 24, 2026 | |
| Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?opinion fdv above one day after launch | No | 38.7¢ | 58.4¢ | 29,606.43 | 29,606.43 | +$5,827 (+50.9%) | Mar 7, 2026 | |
| Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?opinion fdv above one day after launch | No | 63.9¢ | 101.6¢ | 7,388.9 | 7,388.9 | +$2,788 (+59.1%) | Mar 6, 2026 | |
| Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?opinion fdv above one day after launch | No | 96.8¢ | 108.5¢ | 3,850.26 | 3,850.26 | +$454 (+12.2%) | Mar 6, 2026 | |
| Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch?opinion fdv above one day after launch | No | 30.3¢ | 45.5¢ | 8,868.23 | 8,868.23 | +$1,348 (+50.2%) | Mar 6, 2026 | |
| Pacers vs. Knicksnba ind nyk | Pacers | 50.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 10,000 | 10,000 | +$5,000 (+100.0%) | Feb 11, 2026 | |
| Pistons vs. Hornetsnba det cha | Pistons | 50.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 8,000 | 8,000 | +$4,000 (+100.0%) | Feb 10, 2026 | |
| Seahawks vs. Patriotsnfl sea ne | Seahawks | 50.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 7,000 | 7,000 | +$3,500 (+100.0%) | Feb 9, 2026 | |
| Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch?zama fdv above one day after launch | No | 41.5¢ | 78.2¢ | 5,780 | 5,780 | +$2,119 (+88.3%) | Feb 3, 2026 | |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?will trump acquire greenland before 2027 | No | 79.0¢ | 88.8¢ | 20,000 | 20,000 | +$1,950 (+12.3%) | Feb 2, 2026 | |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?us strikes iran by | No | 89.3¢ | 98.4¢ | 4,013.99 | 4,013.99 | +$367 (+10.2%) | Feb 1, 2026 | |
| Zama auction clearing price above $0.05?zama auction clearing price | No | 47.8¢ | 82.7¢ | 2,188.67 | 2,188.67 | +$764 (+73.0%) | Jan 26, 2026 |