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@almost-never
0x88b59d79b6e1659c95a0043028e5bb7a26e6205c
5.0
/ 10 · 90D
Beluga
Class · est. size $191.7K
90-Day Window5.0 SIG
- Edge / share
- +6.3¢ · 27 resolved
- Hit rate
- 61.8%
- Net P/L · Vol
- $22.3K / $191.7K
- % return
- +10.3%
- Observations
- 34
Dive Profile
Return · 90D
+1.8%
Hypothetical return if you’d copied every trade this wallet made starting from $100, staking 1% of your running balance on each — shown as % gain/loss vs that $100. Scrub the curve to read the markets that settled on any step in the Settlement Log below.
Settlement LogOct 5
10W · 1L11 markets
MarketEntry → ExitReturn
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election? · No6.2¢ → 50.0¢+710%
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No51.1¢ → 100.0¢+96%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No68.9¢ → 100.0¢+45%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win between 42% and 45% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No70.8¢ → 100.0¢+41%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes80.1¢ → 100.0¢+25%
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? · No85.5¢ → 99.9¢+17%
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? · Yes86.2¢ → 100.0¢+16%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win between 45% and 48% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes88.7¢ → 100.0¢+13%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win between 39% and 42% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No94.2¢ → 100.0¢+6.1%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win between 48% and 51% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No96.6¢ → 100.0¢+3.6%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election? · Yes99.0¢ → 82.9¢-16%
% return · $100 start · 1% per trade90-day trace
Current Positions
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg Entry | Current | Value | Unrealized P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 260,000 | 50.0¢ | 20.6¢ | $53,690 | -$76,310 (-58.7%) |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 260,000 | 50.0¢ | 79.3¢ | $206,310 | +$76,310 (+58.7%) |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | Yes | 11,299.65 | 59.6¢ | 65.5¢ | $7,401 | +$669 (+9.9%) |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 11,000 | 80.0¢ | 92.5¢ | $10,175 | +$1,375 (+15.6%) |
| Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win less than 44% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 2,500 | 87.6¢ | 99.1¢ | $2,476 | +$286 (+13.1%) |
| Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win between 44% and 47% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 1,225.32 | 89.2¢ | 98.8¢ | $1,210 | +$117 (+10.7%) |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 300 | 80.0¢ | 92.5¢ | $278 | +$38 (+15.6%) |
Trade History
| Market | Outcome | Avg Entry | Avg Exit | Bought | Sold | P/L | Last | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?federal district senate election 1st place | No | 6.2¢ | 50.0¢ | 68.38 | 68.38 | +$30 (+710.2%) | Oct 5, 2026 | |
| ▸ | Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?federal district senate election 1st place | Yes | 99.0¢ | 82.9¢ | 200 | 0 | -$32 (-16.3%) | Oct 5, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win between 44% and 47% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?brazil presidential election first round lula da silva vote share higher strikes 20261002141337150 | Yes | 89.2¢ | — | 1,225.32 | 0 | — | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win between 42% and 45% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?brazil presidential election first round flavio bolsonaro vote share higher strikes | No | 70.8¢ | 100.0¢ | 300 | 300 | +$87 (+41.2%) | Oct 5, 2026 | |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win between 39% and 42% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?brazil presidential election first round flavio bolsonaro vote share higher strikes | No | 94.2¢ | 100.0¢ | 50 | 50 | +$3 (+6.1%) | Oct 5, 2026 | |
| Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?brazil presidential election first round 3rd place | No | 51.1¢ | 100.0¢ | 3,015.11 | 3,015.11 | +$1,474 (+95.7%) | Oct 5, 2026 | |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?brazil presidential election first round 2nd place | No | 68.9¢ | 100.0¢ | 3,301.6 | 3,301.6 | +$1,026 (+45.1%) | Oct 5, 2026 | |
| ▸ | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win between 45% and 48% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?brazil presidential election first round flavio bolsonaro vote share higher strikes | Yes | 88.6¢ | 100.0¢ | 619.45 | 0 | +$70 (+12.7%) | Oct 4, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win between 48% and 51% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?brazil presidential election first round flavio bolsonaro vote share higher strikes | No | 96.5¢ | 100.0¢ | 1,229.13 | 0 | +$42 (+3.6%) | Oct 4, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?brazil presidential election first round winner | No | 92.7¢ | 99.9¢ | 85,016.39 | 0 | +$21,286 (+16.8%) | Oct 4, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?brazil presidential election first round winner | Yes | 90.3¢ | 100.0¢ | 63,443.7 | 0 | +$12,874 (+16.0%) | Oct 4, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win less than 44% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?brazil presidential election first round lula da silva vote share higher strikes 20261002141337150 | No | 87.6¢ | — | 2,500 | 0 | — | Oct 4, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?brazil presidential election first round 2nd place | Yes | 88.2¢ | 100.0¢ | 2,999.97 | 0 | +$994 (+24.8%) | Oct 4, 2026 |
| Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?brazil presidential election first round winner | Yes | 60.6¢ | 50.0¢ | 500 | 500 | -$53 (-17.5%) | Oct 4, 2026 | |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?presidential election winner 2028 | Yes | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ | 40,000 | 40,000 | +$0 (0.0%) | Oct 4, 2026 | |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?presidential election winner 2028 | No | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ | 40,000 | 40,000 | +$0 (0.0%) | Oct 4, 2026 | |
| Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes?sweden parliamentary election m vote share 20260812172636430 | No | 98.2¢ | 100.0¢ | 14,106.29 | 14,106.29 | +$259 (+1.9%) | Sep 19, 2026 | |
| Will Moderate Party (M) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes?sweden parliamentary election m vote share 20260812172636430 | Yes | 97.4¢ | 100.0¢ | 9,015.06 | 9,015.06 | +$232 (+2.6%) | Sep 19, 2026 | |
| Will voter turnout in the 2026 Sweden parliamentary election be 84-86%?sweden parliamentary election turnout | Yes | 99.3¢ | 100.0¢ | 487.65 | 487.65 | +$3 (+0.7%) | Sep 19, 2026 | |
| Will voter turnout in the 2026 Sweden parliamentary election be 84-86%?sweden parliamentary election turnout | No | 2.2¢ | 0.0¢ | 14.99 | 14.99 | -$0 (-100.0%) | Sep 19, 2026 | |
| Will the Christian Democrats (KD) win the sixth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?sweden parliamentary election 6th place 20260812164320300 | Yes | 94.8¢ | 100.0¢ | 8,285.1 | 8,285.1 | +$434 (+5.5%) | Sep 19, 2026 | |
| Will the Christian Democrats (KD) win the sixth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?sweden parliamentary election 6th place 20260812164320300 | No | 45.3¢ | 0.1¢ | 2,000 | 2,000 | -$904 (-99.7%) | Sep 19, 2026 | |
| Will the Green Party (MP) win the sixth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?sweden parliamentary election 6th place 20260812164320300 | No | 93.8¢ | 100.0¢ | 14,219.25 | 14,219.25 | +$883 (+6.6%) | Sep 19, 2026 | |
| Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?sweden parliamentary election 3rd place | Yes | 92.2¢ | 100.0¢ | 1,485.45 | 1,485.45 | +$116 (+8.5%) | Sep 17, 2026 | |
| Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?sweden parliamentary election 2nd place | Yes | 93.4¢ | 100.0¢ | 3,348.09 | 3,348.09 | +$222 (+7.1%) | Sep 17, 2026 | |
| Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?sweden parliamentary election 2nd place | No | 76.9¢ | 100.0¢ | 100 | 100 | +$23 (+30.1%) | Sep 17, 2026 | |
| Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?republican nominee for florida governor | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 11,540 | 11,540 | +$115 (+1.0%) | Aug 19, 2026 | |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?world cup winner | Yes | 57.0¢ | 60.1¢ | 7,499.97 | 7,499.97 | +$227 (+5.3%) | Jul 20, 2026 | |
| Will Argentina be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?world cup argentina stage of elimination | Yes | 59.1¢ | 100.0¢ | 4,395.16 | 4,395.16 | +$1,800 (+69.3%) | Jul 20, 2026 | |
| Will Argentina win the World Cup?world cup argentina stage of elimination | No | 58.3¢ | 100.0¢ | 79.15 | 79.15 | +$33 (+71.5%) | Jul 20, 2026 | |
| Norway vs. England: O/U 2.5fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 more markets | Under | 90.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 1,051.62 | 1,051.62 | +$105 (+11.1%) | Jul 11, 2026 | |
| Portugal vs. Spain: Portugal O/U 0.5fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 more markets | Under | 35.7¢ | 82.0¢ | 200 | 200 | +$93 (+129.8%) | Jul 6, 2026 | |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?peru presidential election winner | No | 87.0¢ | 99.8¢ | 197,810.83 | 197,810.83 | +$25,388 (+14.8%) | Jul 6, 2026 | |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?peru presidential election winner | Yes | 86.2¢ | 100.0¢ | 269,326.8 | 269,326.8 | +$37,035 (+15.9%) | Jul 6, 2026 | |
| Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?peru election 2nd round margin of victory 0pt1 brackets 20260609021541549 | Yes | 43.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 77,533.18 | 77,533.18 | +$44,149 (+132.3%) | Jul 4, 2026 | |
| Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%?peru election 2nd round margin of victory 0pt1 brackets 20260609021541549 | No | 98.5¢ | 93.2¢ | 12,873.61 | 12,873.61 | -$684 (-5.4%) | Jul 4, 2026 | |
| Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%?peru election 2nd round margin of victory 0pt1 brackets 20260609021541549 | Yes | 4.3¢ | 4.9¢ | 31,956.47 | 31,956.47 | +$189 (+13.6%) | Jul 4, 2026 | |
| Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?peru election 2nd round margin of victory 0pt1 brackets 20260609021541549 | No | 99.9¢ | 85.7¢ | 19,461.3 | 19,461.3 | -$2,758 (-14.2%) | Jul 4, 2026 | |
| Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?peru election 2nd round margin of victory 0pt1 brackets 20260609021541549 | No | 95.7¢ | 91.8¢ | 38,520.18 | 38,520.18 | -$1,497 (-4.1%) | Jul 4, 2026 | |
| Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?peru election 2nd round margin of victory 0pt1 brackets 20260609021541549 | Yes | 4.3¢ | 23.5¢ | 6,739.44 | 6,739.44 | +$1,293 (+442.2%) | Jul 4, 2026 | |
| Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?peru election 2nd round margin of victory 0pt1 brackets 20260609021541549 | No | 99.9¢ | 93.4¢ | 14,807.77 | 14,807.77 | -$959 (-6.5%) | Jul 4, 2026 | |
| Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?peru election 2nd round margin of victory | Yes | 77.8¢ | 100.0¢ | 3,521.28 | 3,521.28 | +$781 (+28.5%) | Jul 4, 2026 | |
| France vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Scorefifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 more markets | No | 69.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 99.99 | 99.99 | +$31 (+44.9%) | Jun 30, 2026 | |
| Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw?fifwc egy irn | Yes | 91.6¢ | 100.0¢ | 656.3 | 656.3 | +$55 (+9.1%) | Jun 27, 2026 | |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24?fifwc cze mex | No | 75.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 200 | 200 | +$50 (+33.3%) | Jun 25, 2026 | |
| Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?colombia presidential election | Yes | 44.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 40 | 40 | +$22 (+127.4%) | Jun 24, 2026 | |
| Will England win on 2026-06-23?fifwc eng gha | No | 50.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 100 | 100 | +$50 (+100.0%) | Jun 23, 2026 | |
| Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%?peru election 2nd round margin of victory 0pt1 brackets 20260609021541549 | No | 99.8¢ | 95.6¢ | 5,500 | 5,500 | -$230 (-4.2%) | Jun 14, 2026 | |
| Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%?peru election 2nd round margin of victory 0pt1 brackets 20260609021541549 | No | 99.9¢ | 86.8¢ | 2,966.13 | 2,966.13 | -$387 (-13.1%) | Jun 11, 2026 | |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?peru presidential election winner | Yes | 31.7¢ | 32.3¢ | 63 | 63 | +$0 (+1.7%) | Jun 8, 2026 | |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?democratic presidential nominee 2028 | No | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ | 50,000 | 50,000 | +$0 (0.0%) | Jun 8, 2026 | |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?democratic presidential nominee 2028 | Yes | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ | 50,000 | 50,000 | +$0 (0.0%) | Jun 8, 2026 |