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@almost-never
0x88b59d79b6e1659c95a0043028e5bb7a26e6205c
5.6
/ 10 · 90D
Beluga
Class · est. size $883.5K
90-Day Window5.6 SIG
- Edge / share
- +10.4¢ · 26 resolved
- Hit rate
- 47.6%
- Net P/L · Vol
- $221.1K / $883.5K
- % return
- +24.9%
- Observations
- 42
Dive Profile
Return · 90D
+2.3%
Hypothetical return if you’d copied every trade this wallet made starting from $100, staking 1% of your running balance on each — shown as % gain/loss vs that $100. Scrub the curve to read the markets that settled on any step in the Settlement Log below.
Settlement LogJul 23
+2.3%
Open positions marked to today’s prices — no markets settled this day.
% return · $100 start · 1% per trade90-day trace
Current Positions
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg Entry | Current | Value | Unrealized P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 450,000 | 50.0¢ | 78.3¢ | $352,125 | +$127,125 (+56.5%) |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 450,000 | 50.0¢ | 21.8¢ | $97,875 | -$127,125 (-56.5%) |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 11,000 | 80.0¢ | 86.5¢ | $9,515 | +$715 (+8.1%) |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 300 | 80.0¢ | 87.5¢ | $263 | +$23 (+9.4%) |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? | Yes | 199.99 | 6.5¢ | 1.3¢ | $2 | -$10 (-80.8%) |
Trade History
| Market | Outcome | Avg Entry | Avg Exit | Bought | Sold | P/L | Last | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?world cup winner | Yes | 57.0¢ | 60.1¢ | 7,499.97 | 7,499.91 | — | Jul 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Argentina be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?world cup argentina stage of elimination | Yes | 58.8¢ | — | 4,395.16 | 0 | — | Jul 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?world cup winner | Yes | 17.9¢ | 34.4¢ | 13,188.81 | 10,188.67 | — | Jul 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | France vs. England: Both Teams to Scorefifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 more markets | No | 23.0¢ | — | 100 | 0 | — | Jul 18, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will France win on 2026-07-18?fifwc fra eng | Yes | 56.0¢ | — | 205 | 0 | — | Jul 18, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Argentina win the World Cup?world cup argentina stage of elimination | No | 58.3¢ | — | 79.15 | 0 | — | Jul 17, 2026 |
| ▸ | Norway vs. England: O/U 2.5fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 more markets | Under | 90.0¢ | — | 1,051.62 | 0 | — | Jul 11, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?clacton by election winner 20260707143521303 | Yes | 6.5¢ | — | 199.99 | 0 | — | Jul 11, 2026 |
| ▸ | Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 Spain?fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 exact score | Yes | 49.9¢ | 62.9¢ | 3,815.92 | 1,815.9 | — | Jul 6, 2026 |
| ▸ | Portugal vs. Spain: Portugal O/U 0.5fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 more markets | Under | 35.0¢ | 64.0¢ | 200 | 99.98 | — | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?peru presidential election winner | No | 86.8¢ | 99.8¢ | 197,810.83 | 197,810.83 | +$25,653 (+14.9%) | Jul 6, 2026 | |
| Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?peru election 2nd round margin of victory 0pt1 brackets 20260609021541549 | Yes | 43.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 77,533.18 | 77,533.18 | +$44,208 (+132.7%) | Jul 4, 2026 | |
| ▸ | France vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Scorefifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 more markets | No | 69.0¢ | — | 99.99 | 0 | — | Jun 30, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?peru election 2nd round margin of victory | Yes | 99.0¢ | — | 671.43 | 0 | — | Jun 30, 2026 |
| ▸ | Portugal vs. Croatia: Team to Advancefifwc prt hrv 2026 07 02 more markets | Croatia | 31.4¢ | — | 500 | 0 | — | Jun 29, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?peru presidential election winner | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 4,298.83 | 0 | +$37,519 (+16.2%) | Jun 29, 2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?next prime minister of hungary | Yes | 59.1¢ | 99.4¢ | 251,985.91 | 251,985.91 | +$101,477 (+68.1%) | May 10, 2026 | |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?next prime minister of hungary | No | 79.7¢ | 105.5¢ | 82,469.49 | 82,469.49 | +$21,225 (+32.3%) | May 10, 2026 | |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?hungary parliamentary election popular vote margin of victory | Yes | 48.7¢ | 100.0¢ | 35,524.74 | 35,524.74 | +$18,213 (+105.2%) | Apr 19, 2026 | |
| Will TISZA win 54%+ of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?hungary election tisza of popular vote | No | 79.9¢ | 100.0¢ | 28,189.63 | 28,189.63 | +$5,671 (+25.2%) | Apr 19, 2026 | |
| Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?hungary election tisza wins a constitutional majority | Yes | 89.6¢ | 100.0¢ | 39,924.85 | 39,924.85 | +$4,134 (+11.6%) | Apr 15, 2026 | |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 70 seats?hungary election fidesz kdnp wins seats | No | 38.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 8,160 | 8,160 | +$5,063 (+163.5%) | Apr 14, 2026 | |
| Will Tisza win at least 120 seats?hungary election tisza wins at least seats | Yes | 73.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 10,893 | 10,893 | +$2,941 (+37.0%) | Apr 14, 2026 | |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 80 seats?hungary election fidesz kdnp wins seats | No | 54.7¢ | 100.0¢ | 5,930.5 | 5,930.5 | +$2,685 (+82.7%) | Apr 14, 2026 | |
| Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?hungary election tisza wins at least seats | Yes | 83.0¢ | 98.9¢ | 14,057.77 | 14,057.77 | +$2,239 (+19.2%) | Apr 13, 2026 | |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?will the us acquire any part of greenland in 2026 | No | 75.3¢ | 83.1¢ | 29,999.94 | 29,999.94 | +$2,320 (+10.3%) | Apr 12, 2026 | |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30?us forces enter iran by | Yes | 69.0¢ | 88.7¢ | 19,999.9 | 19,999.9 | +$3,950 (+28.6%) | Apr 9, 2026 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026 | No | 76.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 10,000 | 10,000 | +$2,400 (+31.6%) | Apr 1, 2026 | |
| US government shutdown Saturday?will there be another us government shutdown by january 31 | Yes | 94.0¢ | 100.4¢ | 68,743.01 | 68,743.01 | +$4,399 (+6.8%) | Feb 4, 2026 | |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?new york city mayoral election | Yes | 93.2¢ | 99.7¢ | 113,342.45 | 113,342.45 | +$7,330 (+6.9%) | Nov 5, 2025 | |
| Democratic sweep?democratic sweep | Yes | 80.0¢ | 95.0¢ | 15,000 | 15,000 | +$2,250 (+18.8%) | Nov 5, 2025 | |
| SPD wins 14% or more of vote in Czech election?spd wins 14 or more of vote in czech election | No | 74.6¢ | 100.0¢ | 12,653.87 | 12,653.87 | +$3,211 (+34.0%) | Oct 5, 2025 | |
| Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?will trump meet with putin by august 15 | Yes | 92.8¢ | 100.0¢ | 67,279.95 | 67,279.95 | +$4,849 (+7.8%) | Aug 15, 2025 | |
| Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 12% and 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?nyc mayoral dem primary mamdani mov | Yes | 55.2¢ | 99.9¢ | 90,929.66 | 90,929.66 | +$40,599 (+80.9%) | Jul 23, 2025 | |
| Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?nyc mayoral dem primary mov | Yes | 79.8¢ | 100.0¢ | 20,672.4 | 20,672.4 | +$4,164 (+25.2%) | Jul 23, 2025 | |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?who will win dem nomination for nyc mayor | Yes | 78.3¢ | 98.8¢ | 72,056.46 | 72,056.46 | +$14,745 (+26.1%) | Jun 29, 2025 | |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?who will win dem nomination for nyc mayor | No | 89.0¢ | 99.5¢ | 55,758.91 | 55,758.91 | +$5,872 (+11.8%) | Jun 26, 2025 | |
| US military action against Iran before July?us military action against iran before july | Yes | 58.0¢ | 70.1¢ | 46,755.88 | 46,755.88 | +$5,658 (+20.9%) | Jun 22, 2025 | |
| Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?next president of south korea | Yes | 34.7¢ | 69.9¢ | 69,045.35 | 69,045.35 | +$24,285 (+101.4%) | Jun 4, 2025 | |
| Will voter turnout in the 2025 Polish presidential election be between 70-72%?turnout in 2025 polish presidential election | Yes | 55.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 81,868.72 | 81,868.72 | +$36,873 (+81.9%) | Jun 3, 2025 | |
| Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%?poland presidential election margin of victory | Yes | 64.6¢ | 91.1¢ | 74,797.98 | 74,797.98 | +$19,819 (+41.0%) | Jun 2, 2025 | |
| Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?poland presidential election | Yes | 66.6¢ | 69.8¢ | 137,258.6 | 137,258.6 | +$4,353 (+4.8%) | Jun 2, 2025 | |
| Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%?romanian presidential election margin of victory | Yes | 61.3¢ | 98.3¢ | 74,569.46 | 74,569.46 | +$27,546 (+60.2%) | May 22, 2025 | |
| Will voter turnout in the 2025 Romanian presidential election be between 11.5–12m?turnout in 2025 romanian presindetial election | Yes | 46.8¢ | 99.9¢ | 9,960.13 | 9,960.13 | +$5,286 (+113.4%) | May 22, 2025 | |
| Will Dan or Simion win the diaspora vote?will dan or simion win the diaspora vote | Simion | 82.1¢ | 96.0¢ | 28,471 | 28,471 | +$3,946 (+16.9%) | May 18, 2025 | |
| Will voter turnout in the 2025 Romanian presidential election be 12m or more?turnout in 2025 romanian presindetial election | No | 32.8¢ | 66.5¢ | 15,907.81 | 15,907.81 | +$5,363 (+102.8%) | May 18, 2025 | |
| Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%?canada election popular vote margin of victory | Yes | 15.4¢ | 98.9¢ | 18,332.94 | 18,332.94 | +$15,299 (+540.9%) | May 11, 2025 | |
| Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?romania presidential election | Yes | 48.4¢ | 75.8¢ | 87,123 | 87,123 | +$23,812 (+56.4%) | May 2, 2025 | |
| Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?next prime minster of canada | No | 81.9¢ | 100.0¢ | 46,682.4 | 46,682.4 | +$8,442 (+22.1%) | May 1, 2025 | |
| Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?next prime minster of canada | Yes | 79.9¢ | 100.0¢ | 11,713.16 | 11,713.16 | +$2,351 (+25.1%) | May 1, 2025 | |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?trump wins ends ukraine war in 90 days | No | 76.3¢ | 99.9¢ | 79,996.62 | 79,996.62 | +$18,931 (+31.0%) | Apr 24, 2025 | |
| Will Kamala win New York by 10+ points?will trump lose new york by less then 10 points | Yes | 80.0¢ | 97.3¢ | 15,000 | 15,000 | +$2,595 (+21.6%) | Dec 11, 2024 | |
| Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election?romania parliamentary election | Yes | 55.3¢ | 100.0¢ | 55,449.46 | 55,449.46 | +$24,777 (+80.8%) | Dec 5, 2024 | |
| Will Republicans control 220 seats in the House after the election?of gop seats in house of representatives | Yes | 42.6¢ | 100.0¢ | 6,208.34 | 6,208.34 | +$3,566 (+135.0%) | Dec 5, 2024 | |
| Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 1.5%-2.0%? pennsylvania margin of victory | Yes | 6.5¢ | 98.0¢ | 3,531.17 | 3,531.17 | +$3,233 (+1418.6%) | Dec 1, 2024 | |
| Will the Republican candidate win Arizona by 4.0% or more? arizona margin of victory | Yes | 75.1¢ | 99.2¢ | 11,085.42 | 11,085.42 | +$2,669 (+32.1%) | Nov 27, 2024 | |
| Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 2-3%?arizona senate election margin of victory | Yes | 46.6¢ | 99.1¢ | 70,858.07 | 70,858.07 | +$37,207 (+112.7%) | Nov 26, 2024 | |
| Will a Republican win Arizona US Senate Election?arizona us senate election winner | No | 83.0¢ | 91.4¢ | 38,016.6 | 38,016.6 | +$3,186 (+10.1%) | Nov 12, 2024 | |
| Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election?arizona us senate election winner | Yes | 72.9¢ | 85.0¢ | 17,000 | 17,000 | +$2,053 (+16.6%) | Nov 11, 2024 | |
| Will a Democrat win Nevada Presidential Election?nevada presidential election winner | No | 63.4¢ | 86.8¢ | 59,999.97 | 59,999.97 | +$14,041 (+36.9%) | Nov 9, 2024 | |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?presidential election winner 2024 | Yes | 40.0¢ | 41.5¢ | 630,158.88 | 630,158.88 | +$9,865 (+3.9%) | Nov 6, 2024 | |
| Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?presidential election popular vote winner 2024 | Yes | 61.1¢ | 65.9¢ | 81,999.99 | 81,999.99 | +$3,901 (+7.8%) | Nov 2, 2024 | |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?democratic nominee 2024 | Yes | 63.7¢ | 81.3¢ | 17,840.61 | 17,840.61 | +$3,130 (+27.5%) | Aug 6, 2024 |