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@Pondermint
0x8633c1c6844c5928b284a71e211584739474a08d
0.0
/ 10 · 90D
Porpoise
Class · est. size $4.7K
90-Day Window0.0 SIG
- Edge / share
- -3.3¢ · 13 resolved
- Hit rate
- 28.0%
- Net P/L · Vol
- -$4.9K / $4.7K
- % return
- +16.4%
- Observations
- 25
Dive Profile
Return · 90D
0.0%
Hypothetical return if you’d copied every trade this wallet made starting from $100, staking 1% of your running balance on each — shown as % gain/loss vs that $100. Scrub the curve to read the markets that settled on any step in the Settlement Log below.
% return · $100 start · 1% per trade90-day trace
Current Positions
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg Entry | Current | Value | Unrealized P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | Yes | 20,492.49 | 28.7¢ | 21.0¢ | $4,303 | -$1,588 (-27.0%) |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | Yes | 4,648.96 | 48.0¢ | 64.5¢ | $2,999 | +$766 (+34.3%) |
| Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? | No | 2,570 | 92.0¢ | 96.4¢ | $2,476 | +$112 (+4.7%) |
| Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 2,100.01 | 91.9¢ | 96.2¢ | $2,020 | +$90 (+4.7%) |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 14,840.67 | 10.1¢ | 10.4¢ | $1,551 | +$56 (+3.7%) |
| Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 1,500 | 93.6¢ | 96.7¢ | $1,451 | +$46 (+3.3%) |
| Kash Patel out by December 31? | Yes | 5,404.4 | 76.2¢ | 20.5¢ | $1,108 | -$3,008 (-73.1%) |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 1,107.71 | 58.0¢ | 73.5¢ | $814 | +$172 (+26.8%) |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | Yes | 2,316.58 | 38.4¢ | 27.5¢ | $637 | -$253 (-28.4%) |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | No | 800.01 | 61.5¢ | 72.5¢ | $580 | +$88 (+18.0%) |
| Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? | Yes | 2,524.72 | 79.5¢ | 19.5¢ | $492 | -$1,514 (-75.5%) |
| Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? | No | 500 | 92.9¢ | 96.6¢ | $483 | +$18 (+3.9%) |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | No | 400 | 88.7¢ | 92.5¢ | $370 | +$15 (+4.2%) |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 411.77 | 83.0¢ | 84.5¢ | $348 | +$6 (+1.7%) |
| Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 300 | 89.7¢ | 89.5¢ | $269 | -$0 (-0.2%) |
| RFK Jr. Out by December 31? | Yes | 1,843.76 | 32.0¢ | 12.5¢ | $230 | -$359 (-60.9%) |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 300 | 50.7¢ | 65.5¢ | $197 | +$45 (+29.3%) |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | No | 299.99 | 51.3¢ | 64.5¢ | $193 | +$39 (+25.6%) |
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? | Yes | 1,325.04 | 32.2¢ | 14.0¢ | $186 | -$241 (-56.5%) |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 200 | 88.0¢ | 92.5¢ | $185 | +$9 (+5.1%) |
| Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 300 | 54.3¢ | 61.5¢ | $185 | +$22 (+13.2%) |
| Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,075.63 | 17.3¢ | 14.5¢ | $156 | -$30 (-16.0%) |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 2,003.71 | 6.0¢ | 7.5¢ | $150 | +$30 (+25.0%) |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 997.99 | 14.7¢ | 14.9¢ | $149 | +$2 (+1.4%) |
| Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027? | Yes | 901.86 | 30.7¢ | 14.5¢ | $131 | -$146 (-52.7%) |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 200 | 51.0¢ | 64.5¢ | $129 | +$27 (+26.5%) |
| Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2027? | No | 100 | 96.6¢ | 95.4¢ | $95 | -$1 (-1.2%) |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | No | 100 | 89.0¢ | 95.0¢ | $95 | +$6 (+6.8%) |
| Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? | No | 100 | 90.0¢ | 89.5¢ | $90 | -$1 (-0.6%) |
| Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 199.99 | 27.5¢ | 32.5¢ | $65 | +$10 (+18.2%) |
| Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 112.84 | 44.9¢ | 37.5¢ | $42 | -$8 (-16.5%) |
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 100 | 26.0¢ | 17.5¢ | $18 | -$9 (-32.7%) |
| Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 100 | 7.0¢ | 8.5¢ | $9 | +$2 (+21.4%) |
Trade History
| Market | Outcome | Avg Entry | Avg Exit | Bought | Sold | P/L | Last | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?presidential election winner 2028 | Yes | 11.4¢ | 10.5¢ | 6,645.71 | 500 | — | Oct 5, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?presidential election winner 2028 | Yes | 7.5¢ | 7.8¢ | 2,236.54 | 2,236.53 | — | Oct 4, 2026 |
| ▸ | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?pete hegseth out as secretary of defense by december 31 | Yes | 25.7¢ | — | 11,340.45 | 0 | — | Sep 28, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?will the us invade iran before 2027 | No | 83.5¢ | 84.0¢ | 711.76 | 300 | — | Sep 28, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?will samuel alito announce his retirement by | Yes | 6.0¢ | 6.2¢ | 4,549.4 | 2,545.69 | — | Sep 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Kirsten Gillibrand vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?which senators will vote for the clarity act 20260729190926658 | Yes | 35.0¢ | 18.4¢ | 200 | 200 | — | Sep 15, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will John Fetterman vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?which senators will vote for the clarity act 20260729190926658 | Yes | 32.0¢ | 30.0¢ | 100 | 100 | — | Sep 15, 2026 |
| ▸ | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?clarity act signed into law in 2026 | No | 89.0¢ | — | 100 | 0 | — | Sep 15, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?north carolina senate election winner | Yes | 91.2¢ | — | 600 | 0 | — | Sep 14, 2026 |
| ▸ | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?clarity act signed into law in 2026 | Yes | 15.6¢ | 23.4¢ | 2,499.99 | 2,499.99 | — | Sep 13, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?fed decision in september 762 | Yes | 81.0¢ | 78.0¢ | 100 | 100 | — | Sep 13, 2026 |
| ▸ | Oregon vs. Oklahoma Statecfb ore okst | Oregon | 94.0¢ | — | 9.99 | 0 | — | Sep 12, 2026 |
| ▸ | Oklahoma vs. Michigancfb okl mich | Michigan | 44.0¢ | — | 69.98 | 0 | — | Sep 12, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?ohio senate election winner | Yes | 54.3¢ | — | 300 | 0 | — | Sep 10, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?north carolina senate election winner | No | 91.5¢ | — | 200 | 0 | — | Sep 10, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?texas senate election winner | Yes | 50.0¢ | — | 200 | 0 | — | Sep 8, 2026 |
| ▸ | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D Housebalance of power 2026 midterms | Yes | 35.0¢ | 35.0¢ | 500 | 120 | — | Sep 7, 2026 |
| ▸ | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D Housebalance of power 2026 midterms | Yes | 49.4¢ | 50.5¢ | 2,100 | 411 | — | Sep 7, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?alaska senate election winner | Yes | 64.0¢ | — | 200 | 0 | — | Sep 5, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?alaska senate election winner | No | 62.6¢ | 62.7¢ | 700 | 199.99 | — | Sep 4, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?texas senate election winner | No | 51.0¢ | — | 199.99 | 0 | — | Sep 2, 2026 |
| ▸ | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R Housebalance of power 2026 midterms | No | 89.0¢ | — | 200 | 0 | — | Sep 2, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?democratic presidential nominee 2028 | Yes | 16.3¢ | — | 399.99 | 0 | — | Sep 2, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?will clarence thomas announce his retirement byptptpt 20260701190627804 | Yes | 7.0¢ | — | 100 | 0 | — | Aug 31, 2026 |
| ▸ | Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Detroit Tigersmlb lad det | Los Angeles Dodgers | 63.0¢ | — | 10 | 0 | — | Aug 29, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?next french presidential election | Yes | 26.0¢ | — | 100 | 0 | — | Aug 29, 2026 |
| ▸ | North Carolina State vs. Virginiacfb ncst vir | Virginia | 63.0¢ | — | 10 | 0 | — | Aug 29, 2026 |
| ▸ | North Carolina vs. TCUcfb ncar tcu | TCU | 72.0¢ | — | 20 | 0 | — | Aug 29, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? hyperliquid airdop by | Yes | 13.0¢ | — | 100 | 0 | — | Aug 27, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?new hampshire senate election winner | Yes | 89.7¢ | — | 300 | 0 | — | Aug 26, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?new hampshire senate election winner | No | 90.0¢ | — | 100 | 0 | — | Aug 25, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?which party will win the house in 2026 | Yes | 88.0¢ | — | 200 | 0 | — | Aug 25, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?georgia senate election winner | No | 93.2¢ | — | 100 | 0 | — | Aug 25, 2026 |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?world cup winner | Yes | 13.6¢ | 43.0¢ | 2,999.99 | 2,999.99 | +$883 (+216.4%) | Jul 18, 2026 | |
| Hurricanes vs. Golden Knightsnhl car las | Hurricanes | 87.6¢ | 99.8¢ | 8,995.72 | 8,995.72 | +$1,099 (+13.9%) | Jun 15, 2026 | |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?trump announces us blockade of hormuz lifted by | Yes | 67.1¢ | 72.4¢ | 19,175.72 | 19,175.72 | +$1,017 (+7.9%) | Jun 15, 2026 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of may | Yes | 36.0¢ | 37.8¢ | 53,006.64 | 53,006.64 | +$938 (+4.9%) | Jun 2, 2026 | |
| Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027?who will leave trump administration before 2027 | Yes | 59.6¢ | 63.6¢ | 9,805.69 | 9,805.69 | +$387 (+6.6%) | May 22, 2026 | |
| Will Hyperliquid reach $54 by December 31, 2026?what price will hyperliquid hit before 2027 | Yes | 69.0¢ | 99.1¢ | 1,228.23 | 1,228.23 | +$371 (+43.8%) | May 21, 2026 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by may 15 | No | 93.5¢ | 94.8¢ | 39,054.96 | 39,054.96 | +$511 (+1.4%) | May 19, 2026 | |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?next prime minister of hungary | No | 73.1¢ | 76.1¢ | 38,049.88 | 38,049.88 | +$1,147 (+4.1%) | May 9, 2026 | |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?next prime minister of hungary | Yes | 73.0¢ | 75.0¢ | 58,014.32 | 58,014.32 | +$1,183 (+2.8%) | May 9, 2026 | |
| James Comey arrested by May 15?james comey arrested by may 15 | Yes | 94.0¢ | 98.7¢ | 20,292.93 | 20,292.93 | +$950 (+5.0%) | Apr 29, 2026 | |
| James Comey arrested by April 30?james comey arrested by may 15 | Yes | 97.8¢ | 112.0¢ | 4,911.84 | 4,911.84 | +$695 (+14.5%) | Apr 29, 2026 | |
| New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangersmlb nyy tex | New York Yankees | 91.2¢ | 97.3¢ | 6,717.14 | 6,717.14 | +$409 (+6.7%) | Apr 29, 2026 | |
| Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?will the virginia redistricting referendum pass | Yes | 85.5¢ | 98.1¢ | 35,539.37 | 35,539.37 | +$4,474 (+14.7%) | Apr 22, 2026 | |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?hungary parliamentary election winner | Yes | 78.0¢ | 83.4¢ | 10,600 | 10,600 | +$571 (+6.9%) | Apr 13, 2026 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?us x iran ceasefire by | Yes | 46.5¢ | 56.0¢ | 21,730.59 | 21,730.59 | +$2,076 (+20.6%) | Apr 8, 2026 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?us x iran ceasefire by | Yes | 41.4¢ | 96.1¢ | 2,199.99 | 2,199.99 | +$1,203 (+131.9%) | Apr 8, 2026 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?us x iran ceasefire by | Yes | 28.2¢ | 35.7¢ | 45,306.81 | 45,306.81 | +$3,391 (+26.6%) | Apr 8, 2026 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?us x iran ceasefire by | Yes | 17.5¢ | 25.8¢ | 40,763.31 | 40,763.31 | +$3,359 (+47.0%) | Apr 8, 2026 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?us x iran ceasefire by | Yes | 56.8¢ | 69.3¢ | 4,199.99 | 4,199.99 | +$528 (+22.1%) | Apr 8, 2026 | |
| Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverinescbb uconn mich | Michigan Wolverines | 81.6¢ | 94.8¢ | 40,627.01 | 40,627.01 | +$5,369 (+16.2%) | Apr 7, 2026 | |
| Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?2026 ncaa tournament winner | Yes | 72.8¢ | 79.6¢ | 22,950.17 | 22,950.17 | +$1,557 (+9.3%) | Apr 7, 2026 | |
| Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverinescbb tenn mich | Michigan Wolverines | 77.1¢ | 90.1¢ | 93,340.6 | 93,340.6 | +$12,140 (+16.9%) | Mar 30, 2026 | |
| Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcatscbb pur arz | Arizona Wildcats | 71.1¢ | 78.4¢ | 22,883.88 | 22,883.88 | +$1,666 (+10.2%) | Mar 29, 2026 | |
| Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Michigan Wolverinescbb ala mich | Alabama Crimson Tide | 30.1¢ | 41.9¢ | 12,174.8 | 12,174.8 | +$1,435 (+39.2%) | Mar 28, 2026 | |
| Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Arizona Wildcatscbb ark arz | Arizona Wildcats | 92.1¢ | 92.9¢ | 58,285.27 | 58,285.27 | +$434 (+0.8%) | Mar 27, 2026 | |
| Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakerscbb tx pur | Texas Longhorns | 44.1¢ | 54.8¢ | 12,978.48 | 12,978.48 | +$1,388 (+24.2%) | Mar 27, 2026 | |
| TCU Horned Frogs vs. Duke Blue Devilscbb tcu duke | Duke Blue Devils | 89.9¢ | 91.6¢ | 92,719.46 | 92,719.46 | +$1,574 (+1.9%) | Mar 22, 2026 | |
| Will a Democrat win Arizona Presidential Election?arizona presidential election winner | Yes | 37.0¢ | 38.9¢ | 114,268.11 | 114,268.11 | +$2,117 (+5.0%) | Jan 1, 2025 | |
| Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?presidential election popular vote winner 2024 | Yes | 74.3¢ | 82.7¢ | 60,936.9 | 60,936.9 | +$5,102 (+11.3%) | Nov 12, 2024 | |
| Will a Democrat win Nevada Presidential Election?nevada presidential election winner | Yes | 49.9¢ | 56.7¢ | 108,908.25 | 108,908.25 | +$7,385 (+13.6%) | Nov 9, 2024 | |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?presidential election winner 2024 | Yes | 45.6¢ | 52.8¢ | 1,740,935.16 | 1,740,935.16 | +$126,551 (+16.0%) | Nov 8, 2024 | |
| Will a Democrat win Michigan US Senate Election?michigan us senate election winner | Yes | 74.9¢ | 100.0¢ | 10,000 | 10,000 | +$2,510 (+33.5%) | Nov 8, 2024 | |
| Will a Democrat win North Carolina Presidential Election?north carolina presidential election winner | Yes | 39.8¢ | 41.4¢ | 44,985.36 | 44,985.36 | +$747 (+4.2%) | Nov 8, 2024 | |
| Will a Democrat win Wisconsin US Senate Election?wisconsin us senate election winner | Yes | 80.1¢ | 100.0¢ | 3,131.65 | 3,131.65 | +$624 (+24.9%) | Nov 8, 2024 | |
| Will Tim Walz say "Dog" during the debate?what will tim walz say during the vp debate | Yes | 35.2¢ | 100.0¢ | 3,100 | 3,100 | +$2,009 (+184.1%) | Oct 2, 2024 | |
| Will Tim Walz say "Coach" during the debate?what will tim walz say during the vp debate | Yes | 72.1¢ | 97.5¢ | 3,752.45 | 3,752.45 | +$953 (+35.2%) | Oct 2, 2024 | |
| Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?nasrallah remains leader of hezbollah through october 31 | No | 78.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 3,199.99 | 3,199.99 | +$704 (+28.2%) | Sep 28, 2024 | |
| Ethereum above $2,400 on September 20?ethereum above 2400 on september 20 | Yes | 32.9¢ | 60.3¢ | 34,875.59 | 34,875.59 | +$9,575 (+83.5%) | Sep 20, 2024 | |
| Favorite to win on Polymarket week after debate?favorite to win on polymarket one week after debate | Kamala | 37.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 1,000 | 1,000 | +$630 (+170.3%) | Sep 19, 2024 | |
| Ethereum above $2,400 on September 13?ethereum above 2400 on september 13 | Yes | 40.2¢ | 100.0¢ | 19,002.94 | 19,002.94 | +$11,363 (+148.8%) | Sep 14, 2024 | |
| Solana above $130 on September 13?solana above 130 on september 13 | Yes | 49.8¢ | 100.0¢ | 1,180 | 1,180 | +$592 (+100.6%) | Sep 14, 2024 | |
| Will Kamala flip Trump on Polymarket in August?will kamala flip trump on polymarket in august | Yes | 82.7¢ | 91.7¢ | 12,675.02 | 12,675.02 | +$1,139 (+10.9%) | Aug 25, 2024 | |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?democratic nominee 2024 | Yes | 98.9¢ | 115.8¢ | 338,057.46 | 338,057.46 | +$57,144 (+17.1%) | Aug 6, 2024 | |
| Will Kamala announce VP pick by Aug 7?kamala announce vp pick by aug 7 | Yes | 95.0¢ | 99.5¢ | 21,966.58 | 21,966.58 | +$992 (+4.8%) | Aug 6, 2024 | |
| Will Obama endorse Kamala by tomorrow? will obama endorse kamala for dem nominee by tomorrow | Yes | 45.9¢ | 100.0¢ | 4,764.85 | 4,764.85 | +$2,577 (+117.8%) | Jul 26, 2024 | |
| Will Biden resign during his speech today?will biden resign during his speech tomorrow | No | 95.8¢ | 99.7¢ | 14,255.08 | 14,255.08 | +$559 (+4.1%) | Jul 25, 2024 | |
| Kamala president by Friday?kamala president by friday | No | 94.0¢ | 98.5¢ | 9,071.09 | 9,071.09 | +$412 (+4.8%) | Jul 25, 2024 | |
| Will Andy Beshear be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?democratic vp nominee | No | 85.6¢ | 99.0¢ | 2,899 | 2,899 | +$387 (+15.6%) | Jul 24, 2024 | |
| Will the Director of Secret Service be fired/resign?kimberly cheatle out as director of secret service | Yes | 66.4¢ | 81.2¢ | 47,659.37 | 47,659.37 | +$7,035 (+22.2%) | Jul 24, 2024 | |
| Will Bob Menendez resign by July 31?will bob menendez announce resignation by july 31 | Yes | 47.8¢ | 70.4¢ | 2,332.01 | 2,332.01 | +$527 (+47.2%) | Jul 23, 2024 |