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@DonationsReceiver
0x847667d84fc4d81db36689c4f4c5845c8d125418
0.0
/ 10 · 90D
Porpoise
Class · est. size $4.6M
90-Day Window0.0 SIG
- Edge / share
- -2.5¢ · 103 resolved
- Hit rate
- 36.2%
- Net P/L · Vol
- $14.3K / $4.6M
- % return
- +0.3%
- Observations
- 127
Dive Profile
Return · 90D
+185%
Hypothetical return if you’d copied every trade this wallet made starting from $100, staking 1% of your running balance on each — shown as % gain/loss vs that $100. Scrub the curve to read the markets that settled on any step in the Settlement Log below.
Settlement LogAug 7
+185%
Open positions marked to today’s prices — no markets settled this day.
% return · $100 start · 1% per trade90-day trace
Current Positions
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg Entry | Current | Value | Unrealized P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | No | 62,677.91 | 97.9¢ | 99.5¢ | $62,333 | +$948 (+1.5%) |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 7,233.75 | 83.6¢ | 92.5¢ | $6,691 | +$641 (+10.6%) |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | No | 4,926.56 | 94.6¢ | 95.7¢ | $4,712 | +$52 (+1.1%) |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 2,998.99 | 76.7¢ | 73.5¢ | $2,204 | -$95 (-4.1%) |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 3,000 | 70.0¢ | 64.5¢ | $1,935 | -$165 (-7.9%) |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 5,555 | 12.4¢ | 13.3¢ | $736 | +$47 (+6.9%) |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 5,560 | 9.1¢ | 8.1¢ | $448 | -$58 (-11.5%) |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 470.05 | 54.7¢ | 50.0¢ | $235 | -$22 (-8.5%) |
| Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 33,428.83 | 0.2¢ | 0.4¢ | $117 | +$50 (+75.9%) |
| Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 9,790.68 | 0.3¢ | 0.1¢ | $15 | -$11 (-42.1%) |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | No | 10 | 88.0¢ | 96.8¢ | $10 | +$1 (+9.9%) |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 2,637.63 | 20.0¢ | 0.4¢ | $9 | -$518 (-98.3%) |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | No | 5.01 | 95.1¢ | 98.1¢ | $5 | +$0 (+3.2%) |
| Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 5,427.92 | 0.3¢ | 0.1¢ | $3 | -$14 (-83.3%) |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Yes | 5.03 | 59.0¢ | 41.5¢ | $2 | -$1 (-29.6%) |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 1.08 | 93.0¢ | 94.5¢ | $1 | +$0 (+1.7%) |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 1 | 79.0¢ | 97.7¢ | $1 | +$0 (+23.7%) |
| Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | Yes | 9.85 | 9.0¢ | 8.6¢ | $1 | -$0 (-3.9%) |
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | No | 1.02 | 73.3¢ | 54.9¢ | $1 | -$0 (-25.0%) |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 5 | 11.5¢ | 10.4¢ | $1 | -$0 (-9.1%) |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1.01 | 48.0¢ | 22.5¢ | $0 | -$0 (-53.1%) |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 1 | 16.0¢ | 15.5¢ | $0 | -$0 (-3.1%) |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1.01 | 9.0¢ | 3.1¢ | $0 | -$0 (-65.1%) |
Trade History
| Market | Outcome | Avg Entry | Avg Exit | Bought | Sold | P/L | Last | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?will the us invade iran before 2027 | No | — | 86.0¢ | 0 | 7,615.21 | — | Oct 6, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?brazil presidential election | Yes | 15.9¢ | 18.5¢ | 22,998.99 | 12,998.99 | — | Oct 5, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?brazil presidential election | No | 82.3¢ | 84.0¢ | 29,997 | 9,999 | — | Oct 5, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?brazil presidential election | Yes | — | 0.1¢ | 0 | 10,078.1 | — | Oct 5, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?brazil presidential election | Yes | 6.0¢ | 85.2¢ | 10,715 | 9,998.69 | +$8,208 (+1274.6%) | Oct 5, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?brazil presidential election first round winner | No | 0.7¢ | 0.5¢ | 3,333 | 1,264.24 | +$678 (+1816.1%) | Oct 4, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the brazil election | Yes | 1.8¢ | 0.9¢ | 9,082.65 | 9,082.64 | — | Oct 4, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?brazil presidential election first round winner | Yes | 62.0¢ | — | 4,066.75 | 0 | — | Oct 4, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election?next french presidential election | Yes | 0.2¢ | — | 27,642.77 | 0 | — | Oct 3, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?how many fed rate hikes in 2026 20260623190717369 | Yes | 9.0¢ | — | 9.85 | 0 | — | Oct 2, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?fed decision in december 20260729232808632 | Yes | — | 30.5¢ | 0 | 4,157.32 | — | Oct 2, 2026 |
| ▸ | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?us announces end of iranian blockade byptptpt 20260713152715080 | Yes | 52.5¢ | — | 370 | 0 | — | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?fed decision in october 20260617190323537 | No | 50.0¢ | 82.3¢ | 2,637.63 | 2,637.63 | +$851 (+64.5%) | Sep 21, 2026 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?fed decision in october 20260617190323537 | No | 50.0¢ | 77.7¢ | 2,638 | 2,638 | +$731 (+55.4%) | Sep 21, 2026 | |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?which party will gain most seats in russian parliamentary election | No | 25.0¢ | 83.0¢ | 6,443.94 | 6,443.94 | +$3,736 (+232.0%) | Sep 21, 2026 | |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?which party will gain most seats in russian parliamentary election | Yes | 98.4¢ | 100.7¢ | 51,107.97 | 51,107.97 | +$1,167 (+2.3%) | Sep 21, 2026 | |
| Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?which party will gain most seats in russian parliamentary election | No | 99.8¢ | 111.0¢ | 7,442 | 7,442 | +$834 (+11.2%) | Sep 21, 2026 | |
| Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?which party will gain most seats in russian parliamentary election | Yes | 0.8¢ | 14.1¢ | 14,797 | 14,797 | +$1,968 (+1662.9%) | Sep 20, 2026 | |
| Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?fed rate hike by | Yes | 93.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 21,671.14 | 21,671.14 | +$1,503 (+7.5%) | Sep 16, 2026 | |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?world cup winner | Yes | 99.9¢ | 101.0¢ | 93,332.97 | 93,332.97 | +$1,026 (+1.1%) | Jul 20, 2026 | |
| Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?clacton by election winner 20260707143521303 | Yes | 1.9¢ | 94.8¢ | 6,000 | 6,000 | +$5,576 (+4969.6%) | Jul 17, 2026 | |
| Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610 | Yes | 33.6¢ | 99.3¢ | 999.98 | 999.98 | +$657 (+195.5%) | Jul 10, 2026 | |
| Will Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw?fifwc che col | Yes | 50.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 90,000 | 90,000 | +$45,045 (+100.2%) | Jul 7, 2026 | |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?fifwc prt esp | Yes | 50.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 80,000 | 80,000 | +$40,039 (+100.2%) | Jul 6, 2026 | |
| Will Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?fifwc arg cvi | Yes | 50.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 80,000 | 80,000 | +$40,040 (+100.2%) | Jul 4, 2026 | |
| Will Belgium vs. Senegal end in a draw?fifwc bel sen | Yes | 50.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 77,777 | 77,777 | +$38,927 (+100.2%) | Jul 1, 2026 | |
| Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?los angeles mayoral election 117 | Yes | 0.7¢ | 50.0¢ | 7,202.27 | 7,202.27 | +$3,549 (+7040.0%) | Jul 1, 2026 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?will the iranian regime fall by june 30 | Yes | 0.4¢ | 39.9¢ | 34,997 | 34,997 | +$13,821 (+9873.2%) | Jul 1, 2026 | |
| Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw?fifwc ger par | Yes | 50.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 22,222 | 22,222 | +$11,122 (+100.2%) | Jun 29, 2026 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?us x iran permanent peace deal by | Yes | 17.5¢ | 22.0¢ | 19,924.26 | 19,924.26 | +$899 (+25.8%) | Jun 18, 2026 | |
| Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?will trump restart project freedom by | Yes | 84.7¢ | 100.0¢ | 5,660.03 | 5,660.03 | +$867 (+18.1%) | Jun 14, 2026 | |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?peru presidential election winner | No | 6.0¢ | 30.4¢ | 5,000 | 5,000 | +$1,222 (+407.4%) | Jun 10, 2026 | |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?peru presidential election winner | Yes | 94.0¢ | 103.0¢ | 8,776.01 | 8,776.01 | +$791 (+9.6%) | Jun 10, 2026 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?will the iranian regime fall by may 31 | No | 99.6¢ | 100.2¢ | 106,174.06 | 106,174.06 | +$652 (+0.6%) | Jun 1, 2026 | |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?ucl psg ars | Yes | 50.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 15,000 | 15,000 | +$7,507 (+100.2%) | May 30, 2026 | |
| Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?internet access restored in iran by | Yes | 85.4¢ | 97.8¢ | 4,658.26 | 4,658.26 | +$582 (+14.6%) | May 28, 2026 | |
| Starmer out by May 15, 2026?starmer out in 2025 | Yes | 0.5¢ | 4.3¢ | 14,712.25 | 14,712.25 | +$565 (+768.0%) | May 16, 2026 | |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?who will be confirmed as fed chair | Yes | 94.5¢ | 101.4¢ | 50,788.52 | 50,788.52 | +$3,514 (+7.3%) | May 14, 2026 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?will the iranian regime fall by april 30 | No | 96.2¢ | 98.1¢ | 42,555.9 | 42,555.9 | +$805 (+2.0%) | May 1, 2026 | |
| Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by | Yes | 99.7¢ | 102.6¢ | 39,659.29 | 39,659.29 | +$1,139 (+2.9%) | May 1, 2026 | |
| Netanyahu out by March 31?netanyahu out before 2027 | No | 98.4¢ | 100.1¢ | 29,999.95 | 29,999.95 | +$518 (+1.8%) | Apr 5, 2026 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?will reza pahlavi enter iran by june 30 | No | 95.8¢ | 98.7¢ | 19,234.24 | 19,234.24 | +$554 (+3.0%) | Apr 1, 2026 | |
| Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?who will be next supreme leader of iran 515 | Yes | 5.2¢ | 44.9¢ | 2,307.5 | 2,307.5 | +$915 (+759.2%) | Mar 9, 2026 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?will the iranian regime fall by march 31 | Yes | 9.1¢ | 50.0¢ | 3,333 | 3,333 | +$1,363 (+449.5%) | Mar 8, 2026 | |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?who will trump nominate as fed chair | Yes | 2.6¢ | 100.0¢ | 75,584.27 | 75,584.27 | +$73,616 (+3746.0%) | Mar 4, 2026 | |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31 | Yes | 98.0¢ | 99.4¢ | 96,994.87 | 96,994.87 | +$1,325 (+1.4%) | Mar 4, 2026 | |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?who will trump nominate as fed chair | Yes | 3.0¢ | 50.0¢ | 10,000 | 10,000 | +$4,700 (+1566.7%) | Feb 9, 2026 | |
| Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?portugal presidential election | No | 96.2¢ | 99.2¢ | 29,529.26 | 29,529.26 | +$888 (+3.1%) | Feb 9, 2026 | |
| Maduro out by January 31, 2026?maduro out in 2025 | Yes | 94.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 10,999 | 10,999 | +$660 (+6.4%) | Jan 3, 2026 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?russia x ukraine ceasefire in 2025 | No | 80.0¢ | 87.4¢ | 10,879.71 | 10,879.71 | +$808 (+9.3%) | Jan 1, 2026 | |
| Will Charlie Kirk rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?top 5 most searched people on google 2025 | No | 92.9¢ | 100.0¢ | 12,999.99 | 12,999.99 | +$917 (+7.6%) | Dec 4, 2025 | |
| Will the Gaza–Israel conflict be the #1 searched news on Google this year?1 searched news on google this year 385 | No | 62.3¢ | 86.5¢ | 3,503.52 | 3,503.52 | +$846 (+38.7%) | Dec 4, 2025 | |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?fed decision in december | No | 34.0¢ | 50.0¢ | 6,000 | 6,000 | +$960 (+47.1%) | Nov 12, 2025 | |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?new york city mayoral election | Yes | 92.5¢ | 99.1¢ | 25,562.15 | 25,562.15 | +$1,695 (+7.2%) | Nov 5, 2025 | |
| Will Jack Ciattarelli win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025new jersey governor election winner 2025 | No | 80.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 6,250 | 6,250 | +$1,250 (+25.0%) | Nov 5, 2025 | |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?new york city mayoral election | No | 94.5¢ | 100.0¢ | 10,000 | 10,000 | +$550 (+5.8%) | Nov 5, 2025 | |
| Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?netherlands parliamentary election | Yes | 95.1¢ | 99.6¢ | 40,431.61 | 40,431.61 | +$1,830 (+4.8%) | Nov 2, 2025 | |
| Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election?ireland presidential election | No | 85.2¢ | 100.0¢ | 6,000 | 6,000 | +$888 (+17.4%) | Oct 25, 2025 | |
| Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?will hamas release all israeli hostages by october 31 | Yes | 91.7¢ | 100.0¢ | 39,285.41 | 39,285.41 | +$3,268 (+9.1%) | Oct 13, 2025 | |
| Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 15?will hamas release all israeli hostages by october 31 | Yes | 90.4¢ | 97.2¢ | 34,222.59 | 34,222.59 | +$2,314 (+7.5%) | Oct 13, 2025 |