◆ Contact Dossier
0x7d1b...e75c
0x7d1bb9f000e5fce13db3a0927b64aa38e69de75c
4.6
/ 10 · 90D
Narwhal
Class · est. size $40K
90-Day Window4.6 SIG
- Edge / share
- +2.3¢ · 72 resolved
- Hit rate
- 52.8%
- Net P/L · Vol
- -$5.9K / $40K
- % return
- -10.9%
- Observations
- 108
Dive Profile
Return · 90D
-13%
Hypothetical return if you’d copied every trade this wallet made starting from $100, staking 1% of your running balance on each — shown as % gain/loss vs that $100. Scrub the curve to read the markets that settled on any step in the Settlement Log below.
Settlement LogOct 1
20W · 2L22 markets
MarketEntry → ExitReturn
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? · Yes50.4¢ → 92.6¢+84%
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by September 30? · No64.0¢ → 100.0¢+56%
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by September 30? · No67.8¢ → 89.1¢+31%
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026? · No81.6¢ → 99.4¢+22%
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? · No78.5¢ → 93.5¢+19%
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30? · No83.6¢ → 99.4¢+19%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026? · No86.7¢ → 99.2¢+14%
Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026? · No88.0¢ → 100.0¢+14%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? · No81.1¢ → 91.3¢+13%
Will Russia capture Prymorske by September 30, 2026? · No91.0¢ → 100.0¢+9.9%
Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? · No79.8¢ → 87.6¢+9.7%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? · No88.4¢ → 96.0¢+8.5%
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? · No92.8¢ → 100.0¢+7.8%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · No90.5¢ → 95.8¢+5.9%
Will Microsoft have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026? · No95.2¢ → 99.9¢+4.9%
Will DeepSeek have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026? · No97.6¢ → 99.9¢+2.4%
Will Amazon have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026? · No98.1¢ → 99.4¢+1.4%
Will ByteDance have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026? · No99.0¢ → 99.9¢+0.9%
Will Meta have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026? · No98.3¢ → 99.0¢+0.7%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? · No99.0¢ → 99.2¢+0.1%
Will Tencent have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026? · Yes0.4¢ → 0.1¢-77%
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by September 30? · Yes32.2¢ → 0.5¢-98%
% return · $100 start · 1% per trade90-day trace
Current Positions
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg Entry | Current | Value | Unrealized P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 7,962.4 | 1.9¢ | 1.1¢ | $84 | -$72 (-46.2%) |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 7,648.03 | 43.2¢ | 30.5¢ | $2,333 | -$974 (-29.5%) |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 4,558.81 | 55.4¢ | 48.0¢ | $2,188 | -$339 (-13.4%) |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 4,476.7 | 6.6¢ | 5.7¢ | $253 | -$44 (-14.7%) |
| Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,928.87 | 27.6¢ | 9.0¢ | $174 | -$359 (-67.4%) |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 1,079.99 | 12.5¢ | 42.5¢ | $459 | +$324 (+240.1%) |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31? | Yes | 1,059.4 | 45.1¢ | 31.5¢ | $334 | -$144 (-30.1%) |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 983.68 | 42.6¢ | 21.5¢ | $211 | -$208 (-49.5%) |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 904.18 | 44.0¢ | 74.0¢ | $669 | +$271 (+68.1%) |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 685.37 | 50.3¢ | 59.5¢ | $408 | +$63 (+18.3%) |
| Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | No | 678.86 | 89.0¢ | 90.5¢ | $614 | +$10 (+1.7%) |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 669.36 | 53.3¢ | 38.5¢ | $258 | -$99 (-27.7%) |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 653.7 | 5.2¢ | 2.6¢ | $17 | -$17 (-49.8%) |
| Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? | No | 647.18 | 93.8¢ | 98.1¢ | $635 | +$28 (+4.5%) |
| Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 593.43 | 5.7¢ | 1.2¢ | $7 | -$26 (-78.8%) |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 370 | 21.1¢ | 22.5¢ | $83 | +$5 (+6.8%) |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 365.59 | 48.9¢ | 55.5¢ | $203 | +$24 (+13.5%) |
| Will Google have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 285.27 | 18.0¢ | 17.5¢ | $50 | -$1 (-2.8%) |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 142.46 | 21.4¢ | 3.5¢ | $5 | -$25 (-83.4%) |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 80.1 | 47.0¢ | 70.0¢ | $56 | +$18 (+48.9%) |
| Will OpenAI rename itself to OpenSI? | No | 63.06 | 97.9¢ | 97.0¢ | $61 | -$1 (-0.9%) |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31? | Yes | 50 | 33.9¢ | 33.5¢ | $17 | -$0 (-1.2%) |
| Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? | No | 50 | 59.0¢ | 97.4¢ | $49 | +$19 (+65.1%) |
| Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31? | No | 45 | 60.6¢ | 80.5¢ | $36 | +$9 (+32.9%) |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 31.4 | 6.0¢ | 55.5¢ | $17 | +$16 (+825.0%) |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 20 | 7.7¢ | 67.1¢ | $13 | +$12 (+771.4%) |
| Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 20 | 74.0¢ | 71.5¢ | $14 | -$1 (-3.4%) |
| Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 19.99 | 1.0¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$0 (-95.0%) |
| Will Nvidia have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 19.99 | 1.0¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$0 (-95.0%) |
Trade History
| Market | Outcome | Avg Entry | Avg Exit | Bought | Sold | P/L | Last | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?which company has best ai model end of 2026 | Yes | 5.5¢ | 14.4¢ | 2,977.03 | 110 | — | Oct 6, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?which company has best ai model end of 2026 | Yes | 52.9¢ | 56.4¢ | 3,578.02 | 352.66 | — | Oct 6, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of November 2026?which company has the best ai model on livebench mathematics end of november | Yes | 21.1¢ | — | 370 | 0 | — | Oct 6, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?which companies will have a 1 ai model by december 31 | Yes | 74.0¢ | — | 20 | 0 | — | Oct 6, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?which company has the best ai model on livebench mathematics end of october | Yes | 63.8¢ | 63.0¢ | 311.19 | 20 | — | Oct 6, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?which company has best ai model end of 2026 | Yes | 28.0¢ | 37.2¢ | 307.06 | 270 | — | Oct 6, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?which company has the best ai model end of october | Yes | 39.9¢ | 25.0¢ | 7,135.35 | 100 | — | Oct 6, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?which companies will have a 1 ai model by december 31 | No | 89.0¢ | — | 678.86 | 0 | — | Oct 5, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of November 2026?which company has the best ai model on livebench mathematics end of november | Yes | 50.3¢ | 61.0¢ | 686.87 | 1.5 | — | Oct 5, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?which company has the best text arena math ai model end of october | Yes | 48.4¢ | 51.0¢ | 377.61 | 40 | — | Oct 5, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?which companies will have a 1 ai model by december 31 | Yes | 17.3¢ | — | 76.73 | 0 | — | Oct 5, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?which company has the best ai model on livebench mathematics end of october | Yes | 27.9¢ | 35.0¢ | 235.14 | 20 | — | Oct 3, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Google have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of November 2026?which company has the best ai model on livebench mathematics end of november | Yes | 18.0¢ | — | 285.27 | 0 | — | Oct 3, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?which company has the best text arena math ai model end of october | Yes | 2.8¢ | — | 378.03 | 0 | — | Oct 3, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?will ukraine re enter obratne or temyrivka by march 31 | Yes | 33.5¢ | — | 59.99 | 0 | — | Oct 2, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31?will ukraine re enter uspenivka by march 31 | Yes | 36.0¢ | 36.0¢ | 46 | 782.87 | — | Oct 2, 2026 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by September 30?will ukraine re enter kamianske by june 30 | Yes | 32.2¢ | 0.5¢ | 3,494 | 3,494 | -$1,109 (-98.5%) | Oct 1, 2026 | |
| ▸ | Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?which company has best ai model end of 2026 | No | 90.5¢ | 98.6¢ | 144 | 84 | +$8 (+5.9%) | Oct 1, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Tencent have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?which company has the best ai model on livebench mathematics end of october | Yes | 0.4¢ | 0.1¢ | 56 | 56 | -$0 (-77.5%) | Oct 1, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?which companies will have a 1 ai model by december 31 | No | 79.8¢ | 91.0¢ | 23.72 | 3.72 | +$2 (+9.7%) | Oct 1, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will DeepSeek have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?which company has the best text arena math ai model end of october | No | 97.6¢ | 99.9¢ | 20 | 20 | +$0 (+2.4%) | Oct 1, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will ByteDance have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?which company has the best text arena math ai model end of october | No | 99.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 20 | 20 | +$0 (+0.9%) | Oct 1, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Microsoft have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?which company has the best ai model on livebench overall end of october | No | 95.2¢ | 99.9¢ | 20 | 20 | +$1 (+4.9%) | Oct 1, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Amazon have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?which company has the best text arena math ai model end of october | No | 98.1¢ | 99.9¢ | 20 | 10.01 | +$0 (+1.4%) | Oct 1, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Meta have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?which company has the best ai model on livebench mathematics end of october | No | 98.3¢ | 99.9¢ | 21 | 1.01 | +$0 (+0.7%) | Oct 1, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?which company has the best ai model end of october | No | 99.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 20 | 4 | +$0 (+0.1%) | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Will Russia capture Kindrativka by September 30?will russia capture kindrativka by march 31 | No | 67.8¢ | 89.1¢ | 465 | 465 | +$99 (+31.4%) | Oct 1, 2026 | |
| ▸ | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?which company has the best ai model end of november | Yes | 4.0¢ | — | 495 | 0 | — | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by September 30?will russia capture verkhnia tersa by may 31 | No | 64.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 16.39 | 16.39 | +$6 (+56.3%) | Oct 1, 2026 | |
| Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?will russia capture mala tokmachka by | No | 78.5¢ | 93.5¢ | 3,057.26 | 3,057.26 | +$461 (+19.2%) | Oct 1, 2026 | |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?will russia capture lyman in 2025 | No | 88.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 50 | 50 | +$6 (+13.6%) | Oct 1, 2026 | |
| Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026?will russia capture kupiansk by 387 | No | 86.7¢ | 99.2¢ | 612.55 | 612.55 | +$76 (+14.3%) | Oct 1, 2026 | |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by | No | 81.1¢ | 91.3¢ | 365.21 | 365.21 | +$37 (+12.6%) | Oct 1, 2026 | |
| Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026?will russia capture all of prymorske by | No | 92.8¢ | 100.0¢ | 297.98 | 297.98 | +$21 (+7.8%) | Oct 1, 2026 | |
| Will Russia capture Prymorske by September 30, 2026?will russia capture prymorske by | No | 91.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 72.4 | 72.4 | +$7 (+9.9%) | Oct 1, 2026 | |
| ▸ | Will OpenAI rename itself to OpenSI?will openai rename itself to opensi | No | 97.9¢ | — | 63.06 | 0 | — | Oct 1, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?which company has the best ai model end of november | Yes | 47.7¢ | 82.0¢ | 482.57 | 20 | — | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?which companies will have a 1 ai model by december 31 | Yes | 50.4¢ | 92.6¢ | 1,021.59 | 1,021.59 | +$431 (+83.6%) | Oct 1, 2026 | |
| ▸ | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?which company has the best ai model end of october | Yes | 1.0¢ | — | 6,554.84 | 0 | — | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?which company has the best ai model on livebench overall end of september 20260728164124636 | Yes | 55.8¢ | 100.0¢ | 572.89 | 572.89 | +$253 (+79.3%) | Sep 30, 2026 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?which company has the best ai model on livebench mathematics end of september 20260728165020631 | Yes | 31.8¢ | 93.9¢ | 641.48 | 641.48 | +$398 (+195.5%) | Sep 30, 2026 | |
| Will Meituan have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?which company has the best ai model on livebench overall end of september 20260728164124636 | No | 98.1¢ | 100.0¢ | 21 | 21 | +$0 (+2.0%) | Sep 30, 2026 | |
| Will Alibaba have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?which company has the best ai model on livebench mathematics end of september 20260728165020631 | No | 94.2¢ | 100.0¢ | 37 | 37 | +$2 (+6.1%) | Sep 30, 2026 | |
| Will Amazon have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?which company has the best ai model on livebench overall end of september 20260728164124636 | Yes | 1.0¢ | 1.0¢ | 17 | 17 | -$0 (-1.9%) | Sep 30, 2026 | |
| Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?which company has the best ai model on livebench mathematics end of september 20260728165020631 | No | 87.8¢ | 100.0¢ | 53.98 | 53.98 | +$7 (+13.9%) | Sep 30, 2026 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?which company has the best text arena math ai model end of september 20260717142058419 | Yes | 63.4¢ | 85.3¢ | 539.67 | 539.67 | +$118 (+34.4%) | Sep 30, 2026 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?which company has the best text arena math ai model end of september 20260717142058419 | No | 45.4¢ | -0.0¢ | 21.81 | 21.81 | -$10 (-100.0%) | Sep 30, 2026 | |
| ▸ | Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?will russia capture all of stepnohirsk by | No | 95.9¢ | 96.0¢ | 100 | 0 | +$154 (+8.5%) | Sep 24, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30?will russia capture all of vovchansk by | No | 90.7¢ | 91.9¢ | 769.39 | 50 | +$392 (+18.9%) | Sep 24, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?which company has the best ai model on livebench overall end of october | Yes | 9.0¢ | — | 42.21 | 0 | — | Sep 23, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?which company has the best ai model end of october | Yes | 7.7¢ | — | 20 | 0 | — | Sep 23, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?which company has the best ai model on livebench mathematics end of september 20260728165020631 | Yes | 8.0¢ | — | 20 | 0 | — | Sep 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026?will russia capture orikhiv by | No | 81.6¢ | 99.0¢ | 298.15 | 50 | +$53 (+21.9%) | Sep 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?will russia capture all of donetsk oblast by | No | 97.0¢ | — | 50 | 0 | — | Sep 21, 2026 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Kolodiazi by December 31, 2026?will ukraine re enter kolodiazi by | Yes | 78.0¢ | 91.2¢ | 144.01 | 144.01 | +$19 (+17.1%) | Sep 18, 2026 | |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Kolodiazi by October 31, 2026?will ukraine re enter kolodiazi by | Yes | 56.0¢ | 70.1¢ | 50.18 | 50.18 | +$7 (+25.2%) | Sep 18, 2026 | |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released on or prior to September 16, 2026?next claude opus released onptptpt 20260915 | No | 98.5¢ | 99.5¢ | 42.5 | 42.5 | +$0 (+1.0%) | Sep 17, 2026 | |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1520?openais astra model text arena debut | Yes | 0.7¢ | 0.2¢ | 1,000 | 1,000 | -$5 (-67.5%) | Sep 12, 2026 | |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1520?openais astra model text arena debut | No | 89.7¢ | 94.6¢ | 2,126.14 | 2,126.14 | +$102 (+5.4%) | Sep 12, 2026 | |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510?openais astra model text arena debut | No | 76.0¢ | 92.1¢ | 1,645.06 | 1,645.06 | +$265 (+21.2%) | Sep 12, 2026 | |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?openais astra model text arena debut | Yes | 68.1¢ | 35.5¢ | 5,352.33 | 5,352.33 | -$1,747 (-47.9%) | Sep 12, 2026 | |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by April 30?will ukraine re enter uspenivka by march 31 | Yes | 3.3¢ | 0.0¢ | 100 | 100 | -$3 (-100.0%) | Sep 11, 2026 | |
| Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?which company has the best math ai model end of july | Yes | 22.0¢ | 18.8¢ | 210.97 | 210.97 | -$7 (-14.5%) | Sep 11, 2026 | |
| Will OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?openai gpt score on humanitys last exam by june 30 | Yes | 43.7¢ | 4.9¢ | 105.84 | 105.84 | -$41 (-88.7%) | Sep 11, 2026 | |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by May 31?will ukraine re enter maliivka by march 31 | Yes | 12.2¢ | 8.2¢ | 41.18 | 41.18 | -$2 (-32.6%) | Sep 11, 2026 | |
| Will claude-opus-4-6 be the best AI model on July 18, 2026?best ai model on july 18 20260710153416698 | Yes | 0.8¢ | -0.0¢ | 146.84 | 146.84 | -$1 (-100.3%) | Sep 11, 2026 | |
| Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?anthropic claude score on humanitys last exam by june 30 | Yes | 7.5¢ | -0.0¢ | 142.11 | 142.11 | -$11 (-100.1%) | Sep 10, 2026 | |
| Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?anthropic claude score on humanitys last exam by june 30 | Yes | 51.0¢ | -0.0¢ | 194.62 | 194.62 | -$99 (-100.0%) | Sep 10, 2026 | |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by April 30?will ukraine re enter obratne or temyrivka by march 31 | Yes | 31.3¢ | 3.8¢ | 358.92 | 358.92 | -$99 (-87.9%) | Sep 10, 2026 | |
| Will any other model be the best AI model on July 18, 2026?best ai model on july 18 20260710153416698 | Yes | 1.5¢ | -0.0¢ | 42 | 42 | -$1 (-100.6%) | Sep 10, 2026 | |
| Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by June 30?which companies will have a 1 ai model by june 30 | Yes | 0.3¢ | 0.0¢ | 30 | 30 | -$0 (-100.0%) | Sep 10, 2026 | |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?openais astra model humanitys last exam debut | Yes | 57.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 50 | 50 | +$21 (+75.4%) | Sep 10, 2026 | |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?openais astra model humanitys last exam debut | Yes | 69.7¢ | 95.4¢ | 206.14 | 206.14 | +$53 (+37.0%) | Sep 10, 2026 | |
| Will Mistral have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?which company has the best coding ai model end of june | Yes | 0.1¢ | -0.0¢ | 424.99 | 424.99 | -$0 (-103.9%) | Sep 10, 2026 | |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by April 30?will ukraine re enter maliivka by march 31 | Yes | 20.0¢ | 2.5¢ | 3,461.34 | 3,461.34 | -$604 (-87.4%) | Sep 10, 2026 | |
| Will Mistral have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?which company has the best math ai model end of june | Yes | 0.1¢ | -0.0¢ | 3,162.99 | 3,162.99 | -$3 (-103.9%) | Sep 10, 2026 | |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30?will ukraine re enter kamianske by june 30 | Yes | 23.0¢ | 1.0¢ | 3,489.22 | 3,489.22 | -$768 (-95.5%) | Sep 10, 2026 | |
| Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?which company has the best math ai model end of june | Yes | 6.1¢ | 3.1¢ | 4,837.2 | 4,837.2 | -$145 (-48.9%) | Sep 10, 2026 | |
| Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?which company has the best math ai model end of may | Yes | 13.2¢ | 1.2¢ | 8,801.79 | 8,801.79 | -$1,054 (-91.0%) | Sep 10, 2026 | |
| Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?which companies will have a 1 ai model by june 30 | Yes | 25.2¢ | 1.5¢ | 10,598.28 | 10,598.28 | -$2,506 (-94.0%) | Sep 10, 2026 | |
| Another Frontier Math Problem Solved by September 30, 2026?another frontier math problem solved byptptpt september 15 30 | Yes | 57.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 40 | 40 | +$17 (+75.5%) | Sep 5, 2026 | |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?which company has best ai model end of august 20260717015626546 | Yes | 2.4¢ | 0.7¢ | 5,634.51 | 5,634.51 | -$93 (-69.1%) | Aug 31, 2026 | |
| Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?which company has the best text arena math ai model end of august 20260717012538240 | Yes | 1.9¢ | 0.7¢ | 3,062.53 | 3,062.53 | -$38 (-65.3%) | Aug 31, 2026 | |
| Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?which company has the best text arena math ai model end of august 20260717012538240 | Yes | 1.0¢ | 0.1¢ | 674.61 | 674.61 | -$6 (-93.7%) | Aug 31, 2026 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?which company has best ai model end of august 20260717015626546 | Yes | 93.7¢ | 100.0¢ | 3,792.29 | 3,792.29 | +$241 (+6.8%) | Aug 31, 2026 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?which company has the best text arena math ai model end of august 20260717012538240 | Yes | 76.0¢ | 98.0¢ | 2,204.18 | 2,204.18 | +$485 (+29.0%) | Aug 31, 2026 | |
| Will DeepSeek have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of August 2026?which company has the best ai model on livebench overall end of august 20260728170525237 | Yes | 1.0¢ | 0.0¢ | 14.25 | 14.25 | -$0 (-100.0%) | Aug 31, 2026 | |
| Will Nvidia have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of August 2026?which company has the best ai model on livebench overall end of august 20260728170525237 | Yes | 1.0¢ | 0.0¢ | 4.25 | 4.25 | -$0 (-100.0%) | Aug 31, 2026 | |
| Will Z.ai have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of August 2026?which company has the best ai model on livebench mathematics end of august 20260728171217830 | Yes | 0.2¢ | -0.0¢ | 226.77 | 226.77 | -$0 (-101.0%) | Aug 31, 2026 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of August 2026?which company has the best ai model on livebench mathematics end of august 20260728171217830 | Yes | 22.3¢ | 0.1¢ | 532.63 | 532.63 | -$118 (-99.4%) | Aug 31, 2026 | |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of August 2026?which company has the best ai model on livebench overall end of august 20260728170525237 | Yes | 12.9¢ | -0.0¢ | 93.38 | 93.38 | -$12 (-100.0%) | Aug 31, 2026 | |
| Will Meta have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of August 2026?which company has the best ai model on livebench overall end of august 20260728170525237 | Yes | 1.0¢ | 0.0¢ | 4.25 | 4.25 | -$0 (-100.0%) | Aug 31, 2026 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of August 2026?which company has the best ai model on livebench overall end of august 20260728170525237 | Yes | 61.6¢ | 100.0¢ | 100 | 100 | +$38 (+62.3%) | Aug 31, 2026 | |
| Will Alibaba have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of August 2026?which company has the best ai model on livebench overall end of august 20260728170525237 | No | 98.8¢ | 99.9¢ | 28.88 | 28.88 | +$0 (+1.2%) | Aug 31, 2026 | |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of August 2026?which company has the best ai model on livebench mathematics end of august 20260728171217830 | Yes | 77.6¢ | 99.5¢ | 714.31 | 714.31 | +$157 (+28.3%) | Aug 31, 2026 | |
| Will Meta have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of August 2026?which company has the best ai model on livebench mathematics end of august 20260728171217830 | No | 97.1¢ | 100.0¢ | 21 | 21 | +$1 (+3.0%) | Aug 31, 2026 | |
| Will Z.ai's GLM-5.3-Flash model debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?zptais glm 5pt3 flash model text arena debut 20260826200926018 | Yes | 58.0¢ | 0.0¢ | 21 | 21 | -$12 (-100.0%) | Aug 29, 2026 | |
| Does Ox Alpha belong to Safe Superintelligence?which company does ox alpha belong to | Yes | 0.3¢ | -0.0¢ | 1,279.99 | 1,279.99 | -$3 (-100.0%) | Aug 26, 2026 | |
| Does Ox Alpha belong to Nvidia?which company does ox alpha belong to | Yes | 0.1¢ | 0.0¢ | 1,100 | 1,100 | -$1 (-100.0%) | Aug 26, 2026 | |
| Does Ox Alpha belong to Zhipu AI (Z.ai)?which company does ox alpha belong to | Yes | 92.5¢ | 97.6¢ | 1,654.87 | 1,654.87 | +$84 (+5.5%) | Aug 26, 2026 | |
| Does Ox Alpha belong to Zhipu AI (Z.ai)?which company does ox alpha belong to | No | 2.8¢ | 3.1¢ | 90 | 90 | +$0 (+9.5%) | Aug 26, 2026 | |
| Does Ox Alpha belong to Google?which company does ox alpha belong to | Yes | 1.1¢ | 1.0¢ | 110 | 110 | -$0 (-13.5%) | Aug 26, 2026 | |
| Will Moonshot have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of August 2026?which company has the best ai model on livebench mathematics end of august 20260728171217830 | No | 94.2¢ | 99.4¢ | 44.19 | 44.19 | +$2 (+5.5%) | Aug 21, 2026 | |
| Will Z.ai have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?which company has the best ai model on livebench mathematics end of october | No | 91.7¢ | 97.7¢ | 152 | 152 | +$9 (+6.5%) | Aug 21, 2026 | |
| Will Tencent have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?which company has the best text arena math ai model end of october | No | 98.5¢ | 99.0¢ | 21.64 | 21.64 | +$0 (+0.5%) | Aug 17, 2026 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Flash model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?next google gemini flash model 3pt7 arena debut | Yes | 80.6¢ | 95.8¢ | 289.21 | 289.21 | +$44 (+18.8%) | Aug 15, 2026 | |
| Will Amazon have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?which company has the best ai model on livebench mathematics end of october | No | 97.1¢ | 99.0¢ | 21 | 21 | +$0 (+1.9%) | Aug 14, 2026 | |
| Will Microsoft have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?which company has the best ai model on livebench mathematics end of october | No | 99.0¢ | 99.0¢ | 20 | 20 | -$0 (-0.0%) | Aug 14, 2026 | |
| Will Amazon have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?which company has the best ai model on livebench overall end of october | No | 93.3¢ | 97.0¢ | 41 | 41 | +$2 (+4.1%) | Aug 14, 2026 | |
| Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?which company has the best ai model end of october | No | 99.0¢ | 99.0¢ | 20 | 20 | -$0 (-0.0%) | Aug 13, 2026 | |
| Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?which company has the best ai model end of october | No | 99.0¢ | 99.0¢ | 20 | 20 | -$0 (-0.0%) | Aug 13, 2026 | |
| Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by July 31?will russia capture all of drobysheve by march 31 | No | 89.1¢ | 99.3¢ | 258.14 | 258.14 | +$26 (+11.4%) | Aug 1, 2026 | |
| Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by July 31?will russia capture verkhnia tersa by may 31 | No | 71.9¢ | 97.8¢ | 680.41 | 680.41 | +$177 (+36.1%) | Aug 1, 2026 | |
| Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister byptptpt 20260716185015029 | No | 86.0¢ | 98.8¢ | 484.4 | 484.4 | +$62 (+14.9%) | Aug 1, 2026 | |
| Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by July 31?will russia enter ternuvate again by february 28 | No | 91.2¢ | 99.7¢ | 680.25 | 680.25 | +$58 (+9.4%) | Aug 1, 2026 | |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by July 31, 2026?will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by | No | 94.2¢ | 99.5¢ | 973.56 | 973.56 | +$52 (+5.6%) | Aug 1, 2026 | |
| Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?will russia capture all of huliaipole by february 28 | No | 17.9¢ | 10.8¢ | 1,321.65 | 1,321.65 | -$93 (-39.6%) | Jul 31, 2026 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?which company has the best math ai model end of july | Yes | 54.0¢ | 93.6¢ | 3,704.69 | 3,704.69 | +$1,466 (+73.3%) | Jul 31, 2026 | |
| Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?which company has the best math ai model end of july | Yes | 2.6¢ | 0.6¢ | 7,269.05 | 7,269.05 | -$152 (-78.8%) | Jul 31, 2026 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?which company has best ai model end of july 299 | Yes | 11.0¢ | 3.5¢ | 1,137.13 | 1,137.13 | -$85 (-68.3%) | Jul 31, 2026 | |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?which company has best ai model end of july 299 | Yes | 2.3¢ | 0.7¢ | 5,441.47 | 5,441.47 | -$86 (-67.8%) | Jul 31, 2026 | |
| Will Anthropic's public ticker be $AAI?what will anthropics public ticker be | Yes | 1.8¢ | 1.8¢ | 100 | 100 | +$0 (+1.7%) | Jul 22, 2026 | |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31?will ukraine re enter maliivka by march 31 | Yes | 49.5¢ | 89.8¢ | 660.75 | 660.75 | +$266 (+81.3%) | Jul 14, 2026 | |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by September 30?will ukraine re enter maliivka by march 31 | Yes | 91.4¢ | 100.0¢ | 280.19 | 280.19 | +$24 (+9.5%) | Jul 14, 2026 | |
| Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?anthropic claude score on humanitys last exam by june 30 | Yes | 12.0¢ | 0.0¢ | 10 | 10 | -$1 (-100.0%) | Jul 1, 2026 | |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?will russia capture lyman in 2025 | No | 83.8¢ | 98.6¢ | 9,548.2 | 9,548.2 | +$1,417 (+17.7%) | Jul 1, 2026 | |
| Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?will russia capture all of huliaipole by february 28 | Yes | 0.1¢ | 0.0¢ | 50 | 50 | -$0 (-100.0%) | Jul 1, 2026 | |
| Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30?which cities will russia enter by june 30 | No | 79.4¢ | 94.7¢ | 533.09 | 533.09 | +$82 (+19.3%) | Jul 1, 2026 | |
| Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?which cities will russia enter by june 30 | No | 75.5¢ | 95.0¢ | 200 | 200 | +$39 (+25.8%) | Jul 1, 2026 | |
| Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30?will russia capture slovainsk by 2027 | No | 85.0¢ | 99.1¢ | 1,424.26 | 1,424.26 | +$201 (+16.6%) | Jul 1, 2026 | |
| Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?will russia capture all of rodynske again by | No | 91.9¢ | 99.9¢ | 425.9 | 425.9 | +$34 (+8.7%) | Jul 1, 2026 | |
| Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026?will russia capture all of lyman by | No | 88.3¢ | 100.8¢ | 301.76 | 301.76 | +$38 (+14.2%) | Jul 1, 2026 | |
| Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026?will russia capture all of donetsk oblast by | No | 95.4¢ | 98.2¢ | 2,271.41 | 2,271.41 | +$63 (+2.9%) | Jul 1, 2026 | |
| Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by June 30?which companies will have a 1 ai model by june 30 | No | 98.3¢ | 98.3¢ | 102.63 | 102.63 | +$0 (+0.1%) | Jul 1, 2026 | |
| Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by June 30?which companies will have a 1 ai model by june 30 | No | 96.1¢ | 98.5¢ | 806 | 806 | +$20 (+2.5%) | Jul 1, 2026 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?which company has the best math ai model end of june | Yes | 11.0¢ | -0.0¢ | 1,157.66 | 1,157.66 | -$128 (-100.0%) | Jun 30, 2026 | |
| Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?which company has best ai model end of june | Yes | 0.1¢ | -0.0¢ | 10,000 | 10,000 | -$10 (-103.9%) | Jun 30, 2026 | |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?which company has best ai model end of june | Yes | 2.9¢ | 0.6¢ | 27,169.35 | 27,169.35 | -$635 (-80.3%) | Jun 30, 2026 | |
| Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?which company has the best math ai model end of june | Yes | 42.9¢ | 100.0¢ | 288.37 | 288.37 | +$165 (+133.3%) | Jun 30, 2026 | |
| Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?will elon musk win his case against sam altman | No | 68.9¢ | 92.1¢ | 8,778 | 8,778 | +$2,032 (+33.6%) | Jun 19, 2026 | |
| Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?gemini 3 score on frontiermath benchmark by june 30 | Yes | 68.8¢ | 100.0¢ | 196.22 | 196.22 | +$61 (+45.3%) | Jun 13, 2026 | |
| Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?anthropic claude score on frontiermath benchmark by june 30 | No | 30.9¢ | 14.5¢ | 555.23 | 555.23 | -$91 (-52.9%) | Jun 13, 2026 | |
| Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?anthropic claude score on frontiermath benchmark by june 30 | Yes | 23.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 20 | 20 | +$15 (+334.8%) | Jun 13, 2026 | |
| Will Anthropic's public ticker be $CLD?what will anthropics public ticker be | Yes | 1.0¢ | 0.9¢ | 1.27 | 1.27 | -$0 (-13.4%) | Jun 6, 2026 | |
| Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?what will anthropics public ticker be | Yes | 3.0¢ | 3.0¢ | 20 | 20 | -$0 (-0.7%) | Jun 4, 2026 | |
| Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH?what will anthropics public ticker be | No | 16.6¢ | 24.3¢ | 55.18 | 55.18 | +$4 (+45.7%) | Jun 2, 2026 | |
| Will Anthropic's public ticker be $AAI?what will anthropics public ticker be | No | 89.0¢ | 94.7¢ | 60 | 60 | +$3 (+6.4%) | Jun 2, 2026 | |
| Will Anthropic's public ticker be $CLD?what will anthropics public ticker be | No | 95.1¢ | 98.1¢ | 20 | 20 | +$1 (+3.2%) | Jun 2, 2026 | |
| Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by May 31, 2026?will russia capture all of prymorske by | No | 96.9¢ | 99.2¢ | 256.35 | 256.35 | +$6 (+2.3%) | Jun 1, 2026 | |
| Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31?will russia capture all of huliaipole by february 28 | No | 80.8¢ | 94.9¢ | 526.7 | 526.7 | +$74 (+17.5%) | Jun 1, 2026 | |
| Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by May 31?will russia capture dovha balka by | No | 87.2¢ | 97.1¢ | 1,051.15 | 1,051.15 | +$104 (+11.3%) | Jun 1, 2026 | |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026?will russia capture lyman in 2025 | No | 94.5¢ | 100.0¢ | 135.12 | 135.12 | +$7 (+5.8%) | Jun 1, 2026 | |
| Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by May 31?will russia capture kupiansk vuzlovyi by | No | 92.8¢ | 100.0¢ | 1,076.33 | 1,076.33 | +$77 (+7.7%) | Jun 1, 2026 | |
| Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by May 31?will russia capture verkhnia tersa by may 31 | No | 88.7¢ | 99.8¢ | 120 | 120 | +$13 (+12.5%) | Jun 1, 2026 | |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by May 31, 2026?will russia capture all of stepnohirsk by | No | 95.1¢ | 99.8¢ | 196.99 | 196.99 | +$9 (+4.9%) | Jun 1, 2026 | |
| Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?which company has the best math ai model end of may | Yes | 30.0¢ | 90.4¢ | 1,487.73 | 1,487.73 | +$898 (+201.4%) | Jun 1, 2026 | |
| Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?which company has the best math ai model end of may | Yes | 0.7¢ | -0.0¢ | 1,003.91 | 1,003.91 | -$7 (-100.6%) | Jun 1, 2026 | |
| Will Alibaba have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?which company has the best math ai model end of may | Yes | 1.0¢ | 0.0¢ | 50 | 50 | -$1 (-100.0%) | Jun 1, 2026 | |
| Will xAI have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?which company has the best math ai model end of may | Yes | 0.1¢ | -0.0¢ | 2,353.02 | 2,353.02 | -$2 (-103.9%) | Jun 1, 2026 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?which company has the best math ai model end of may | Yes | 16.8¢ | 50.0¢ | 59.99 | 59.99 | +$20 (+197.1%) | Jun 1, 2026 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?which company has the best math ai model end of may | No | 27.9¢ | 83.2¢ | 179 | 179 | +$99 (+198.3%) | Jun 1, 2026 | |
| Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by May 31?will russia capture verkhnia tersa by may 31 | Yes | 9.7¢ | 10.9¢ | 20.5 | 20.5 | +$0 (+12.1%) | May 31, 2026 | |
| Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?eurovision winner 2026 | Yes | 1.4¢ | -0.0¢ | 520.55 | 520.55 | -$8 (-100.3%) | May 17, 2026 | |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?eurovision winner 2026 | Yes | 51.6¢ | -0.0¢ | 150 | 150 | -$77 (-100.0%) | May 17, 2026 | |
| Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?eurovision winner 2026 | Yes | 6.1¢ | -0.0¢ | 400 | 400 | -$24 (-100.1%) | May 17, 2026 | |
| Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?eurovision 2026 top 10 | Yes | 81.3¢ | 100.0¢ | 16.12 | 16.12 | +$3 (+23.0%) | May 17, 2026 | |
| Will Denmark be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?eurovision 2026 top 3 | No | 79.7¢ | 100.0¢ | 165.6 | 165.6 | +$34 (+25.4%) | May 17, 2026 | |
| Will Bulgaria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?eurovision 2026 top 10 | Yes | 70.1¢ | 100.0¢ | 286 | 286 | +$86 (+42.7%) | May 17, 2026 | |
| Will Australia be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?eurovision 2026 top 3 | No | 36.1¢ | 100.0¢ | 100 | 100 | +$64 (+176.8%) | May 17, 2026 | |
| Will Bulgaria be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?eurovision 2026 top 3 | Yes | 65.4¢ | 92.1¢ | 126.4 | 126.4 | +$34 (+40.8%) | May 17, 2026 | |
| Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?eurovision winner 2026 | Yes | 4.6¢ | 47.5¢ | 3,350.6 | 3,350.6 | +$1,438 (+933.0%) | May 17, 2026 | |
| Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?eurovision 2026 second semi final | No | 37.1¢ | -0.0¢ | 50 | 50 | -$19 (-100.0%) | May 14, 2026 | |
| Will Albania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?eurovision 2026 second semi final | No | 12.5¢ | 0.0¢ | 100 | 100 | -$13 (-100.0%) | May 14, 2026 | |
| Will Romania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?eurovision 2026 second semi final | No | 1.0¢ | 0.0¢ | 10 | 10 | -$0 (-100.0%) | May 14, 2026 |