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0x7678...22a3
0x7678aa83a333f333356c04d4faa929d81b2322a3
7.2
/ 10 · 90D
Orca
Class · est. size $70.1K
90-Day Window7.2 SIG
- Edge / share
- +15.3¢ · 42 resolved
- Hit rate
- 60.8%
- Net P/L · Vol
- $11.5K / $70.1K
- % return
- +16.0%
- Observations
- 97
Dive Profile
Return · 90D
0.0%
Hypothetical return if you’d copied every trade this wallet made starting from $100, staking 1% of your running balance on each — shown as % gain/loss vs that $100. Scrub the curve to read the markets that settled on any step in the Settlement Log below.
% return · $100 start · 1% per trade90-day trace
Current Positions
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg Entry | Current | Value | Unrealized P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | Yes | 1,124.14 | 92.0¢ | 79.5¢ | $894 | -$141 (-13.6%) |
| Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026? | No | 728.67 | 90.0¢ | 87.5¢ | $638 | -$18 (-2.8%) |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 1? | No | 739.18 | 70.7¢ | 64.6¢ | $478 | -$45 (-8.6%) |
| Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | No | 354.27 | 79.0¢ | 79.5¢ | $282 | +$2 (+0.6%) |
| Will Egypt join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 265.02 | 9.0¢ | 9.0¢ | $24 | -$0 (-0.2%) |
| Saudi troops enter Taiz Governorate by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 150 | 23.0¢ | 8.0¢ | $12 | -$23 (-65.2%) |
| US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? | Yes | 19.12 | 9.9¢ | 5.0¢ | $1 | -$1 (-49.6%) |
Trade History
| Market | Outcome | Avg Entry | Avg Exit | Bought | Sold | P/L | Last | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 1?saudi arabia military action against yemen on october 2026 | No | 70.0¢ | 67.9¢ | 1,716.26 | 977.08 | — | Oct 6, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?toronto mayoral election winner 545 | No | 79.0¢ | — | 354.27 | 0 | — | Oct 6, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?will mara corina machado enter venezuela by january 31 | No | 52.3¢ | 61.5¢ | 1,528.57 | 1,528.56 | +$123 (+15.3%) | Oct 6, 2026 |
| ▸ | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?saudi oil pipeline east west restarts byptptpt | No | 25.0¢ | 59.0¢ | 3,334.23 | 242 | — | Oct 6, 2026 |
| ▸ | Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?houthis enter aden byptptpt | No | 73.0¢ | 75.0¢ | 500 | 500 | — | Oct 5, 2026 |
| ▸ | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?saudi oil pipeline east west restarts byptptpt | No | 37.3¢ | 69.0¢ | 1,562.5 | 1,562.49 | +$495 (+85.0%) | Oct 5, 2026 |
| ▸ | Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?perim island no longer under houthi control by 20260916 | Yes | 12.0¢ | 17.7¢ | 233 | 233 | — | Oct 4, 2026 |
| ▸ | Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?israel accuses iranproxies of plane stabbing incident by oct 31 | Yes | 13.3¢ | 9.3¢ | 7,500 | 7,500 | — | Oct 4, 2026 |
| ▸ | Saudi troops enter Taiz Governorate by December 31, 2026?saudi troops enter taiz governorate by | Yes | 23.0¢ | — | 150 | 0 | — | Oct 3, 2026 |
| ▸ | Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?houthis enter aden byptptpt | No | 90.0¢ | — | 728.67 | 0 | — | Oct 2, 2026 |
| ▸ | Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?israel accuses iranproxies of plane stabbing incident by oct 31 | No | 74.8¢ | 81.0¢ | 948.71 | 948.71 | +$59 (+8.3%) | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?foreign intervention in gaza by | No | 69.0¢ | 83.9¢ | 1,499.99 | 1,499.99 | +$224 (+21.6%) | Oct 1, 2026 | |
| ▸ | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?who will be the next prime minister of israel after the next election | Yes | 45.8¢ | 47.0¢ | 1,599.99 | 1,599.98 | — | Sep 30, 2026 |
| ▸ | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?next us iran senior diplomatic meeting byptptpt | No | 91.7¢ | 100.0¢ | 1,074 | 0 | +$89 (+9.1%) | Sep 29, 2026 |
| ▸ | US x Yemen ceasefire continues through September 30?us yemen ceasefire continues throughptptpt | Yes | 88.2¢ | 100.0¢ | 4,798.9 | 0 | +$566 (+13.4%) | Sep 29, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by September 30, 2026?trump meets with netanyahu by 20260917 | No | 95.7¢ | 100.0¢ | 751.95 | 0 | +$31 (+4.3%) | Sep 29, 2026 |
| ▸ | US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?us national bitcoin reserve before 2027 | Yes | — | 7.0¢ | 0 | 1,966.69 | — | Sep 28, 2026 |
| ▸ | US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?us iran ceasefire continues throughptptpt | Yes | 85.8¢ | 92.0¢ | 2,499.99 | 2,499.99 | +$155 (+7.2%) | Sep 27, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Netanyahu use a visual aid during his UNGA speech?will netanyahu use a visual aid during his unga speech | Yes | 65.0¢ | 65.0¢ | 1,500 | 724.92 | +$271 (+27.8%) | Sep 25, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Netanyahu use a visual aid during his UNGA speech?will netanyahu use a visual aid during his unga speech | No | 14.0¢ | 27.7¢ | 692 | 692 | +$91 (+92.2%) | Sep 25, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Netanyahu say "Hormuz" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?what will netanyahu say during the united nations general assembly | Yes | 64.4¢ | — | 87.07 | 0 | — | Sep 24, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Netanyahu say "Settler" or "Settlement" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?what will netanyahu say during the united nations general assembly | Yes | 23.5¢ | 100.0¢ | 541.28 | 0 | +$410 (+312.0%) | Sep 24, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?will netanyahu visit new york city byptptpt 20260722053445708 | Yes | 98.5¢ | 98.5¢ | 482.97 | 482.97 | — | Sep 23, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in September 2026?who will trump meet with in september 20260826 | No | 95.0¢ | — | 223.58 | 0 | — | Sep 23, 2026 |
| ▸ | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?next round of us iran peace talks byptptpt 20260623022722982 | Yes | 57.5¢ | 95.9¢ | 3,609.9 | 3,609.85 | +$1,386 (+66.7%) | Sep 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?next round of us iran peace talks byptptpt 20260623022722982 | Yes | 40.1¢ | 53.8¢ | 4,000 | 4,000 | +$546 (+34.1%) | Sep 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Egypt join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?which countries will join the mecca agreement by december 31 | Yes | 9.0¢ | — | 265.02 | 0 | — | Sep 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?saudi oil pipeline east west restarts byptptpt | No | 23.8¢ | 30.0¢ | 5,465.83 | 5,465.83 | +$337 (+38.7%) | Sep 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?next prime minister of sweden | Yes | 92.0¢ | — | 1,124.14 | 0 | — | Sep 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?saudi oil pipeline east west restarts byptptpt | Yes | 69.9¢ | 45.2¢ | 2,789.76 | 2,789.76 | — | Sep 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?which party will gain most seats in russian parliamentary election | Yes | 81.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 3,177.47 | 0 | +$604 (+23.5%) | Sep 18, 2026 |
| Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting byptptpt 20260810145737299 | No | 20.5¢ | 37.0¢ | 4,082.81 | 4,082.81 | +$675 (+80.7%) | Sep 16, 2026 | |
| ▸ | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?fed decision in september 762 | No | 89.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 733.87 | 0 | +$77 (+11.7%) | Sep 15, 2026 |
| ▸ | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting byptptpt 20260810145737299 | Yes | 85.9¢ | — | 126.55 | 0 | — | Sep 15, 2026 |
| ▸ | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 17, 2026?israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting byptptpt 20260810145737299 | Yes | 92.0¢ | — | 342 | 0 | — | Sep 15, 2026 |
| ▸ | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting byptptpt 20260810145737299 | Yes | 90.4¢ | 100.0¢ | 1,498.28 | 0 | +$181 (+12.6%) | Sep 15, 2026 |
| ▸ | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 18, 2026?israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting byptptpt 20260810145737299 | Yes | 92.0¢ | — | 375.62 | 0 | — | Sep 15, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?who will attend a round of us iran peace talks by december 31 20260812153824803 | Yes | 34.4¢ | 31.6¢ | 1,253.26 | 1,253.26 | — | Sep 15, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?who will attend a round of us iran peace talks by december 31 20260812153824803 | Yes | 28.0¢ | 28.0¢ | 181.1 | 181.1 | — | Sep 15, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?who will attend a round of us iran peace talks by december 31 20260812153824803 | Yes | 28.5¢ | 34.7¢ | 540.22 | 540.22 | +$33 (+21.7%) | Sep 15, 2026 |
| ▸ | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?us x iran effective ceasefire begins byptptpt 2 week pause | Yes | 86.9¢ | 96.4¢ | 1,448.29 | 1,448.3 | +$175 (+3.6%) | Sep 14, 2026 |
| ▸ | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?israel x iran ceasefire continues throughptptpt 20260716224448963 | No | — | 8.9¢ | 0 | 11,437.51 | — | Sep 14, 2026 |
| ▸ | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?israel x iran ceasefire continues throughptptpt 20260716224448963 | No | — | 21.0¢ | 0 | 1,000 | — | Sep 14, 2026 |
| ▸ | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?us x iran effective ceasefire begins byptptpt 2 week pause | Yes | — | 93.0¢ | 0 | 110.89 | — | Sep 14, 2026 |
| ▸ | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?us x iran effective ceasefire begins byptptpt 2 week pause | Yes | 85.0¢ | — | 5.69 | 0 | — | Sep 14, 2026 |
| ▸ | Iran full airspace closure by September 30?iran full airspace closure byptptpt 20260625195253028 | Yes | — | 6.0¢ | 0 | 3,000 | — | Sep 13, 2026 |
| ▸ | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?us x iran effective ceasefire begins byptptpt 2 week pause | No | 13.0¢ | 16.2¢ | 2,000 | 2,000.01 | +$130 (+22.2%) | Sep 13, 2026 |
| ▸ | Netanyahu out by end of 2026?netanyahu out before 2027 | Yes | 48.0¢ | 54.0¢ | 2,208.31 | 1,571.31 | +$132 (+12.5%) | Sep 13, 2026 |
| Will Iran target Jordan by September 15, 2026?will iran target jordan byptptpt 20260903 | Yes | 43.1¢ | 100.0¢ | 70.19 | 70.19 | +$40 (+132.0%) | Sep 11, 2026 | |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?us x iran effective ceasefire begins byptptpt 2 week pause | No | 43.0¢ | 49.0¢ | 783 | 783 | +$47 (+14.0%) | Sep 10, 2026 | |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?where will the next next round of us iran peace talks beptptpt 20260623023740663 | No | 12.6¢ | 19.3¢ | 6,010.29 | 6,010.29 | +$407 (+53.9%) | Sep 8, 2026 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement by | Yes | 23.8¢ | 25.0¢ | 4,444 | 4,444 | +$51 (+4.8%) | Sep 4, 2026 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement by | Yes | 49.0¢ | 53.0¢ | 2,997.68 | 2,997.68 | +$120 (+8.2%) | Sep 4, 2026 | |
| NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?nato x russia military clash in 2025 | Yes | 39.4¢ | 62.9¢ | 6,048.73 | 6,048.73 | +$1,422 (+59.7%) | Sep 1, 2026 | |
| NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?nato x russia military clash in 2025 | No | 60.9¢ | 64.6¢ | 4,759.33 | 4,759.33 | +$177 (+6.1%) | Sep 1, 2026 | |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31?iran full airspace closure byptptpt 20260625195253028 | Yes | 31.8¢ | 36.0¢ | 2,500 | 2,500 | +$105 (+13.3%) | Sep 1, 2026 | |
| US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?us ceasefire against iran continues throughptptpt | No | 24.9¢ | 97.0¢ | 4,000 | 4,000 | +$2,885 (+290.0%) | Aug 30, 2026 | |
| Israel military action against Syria by August 31, 2026?israel military action against syria byptptpt | Yes | 85.7¢ | 98.8¢ | 4,324.17 | 4,324.17 | +$566 (+15.3%) | Aug 22, 2026 | |
| US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?us ceasefire against iran continues throughptptpt | No | 11.0¢ | 14.0¢ | 2,992.02 | 2,992.02 | +$90 (+27.3%) | Aug 22, 2026 | |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?nato x russia military clash in 2025 | Yes | 29.6¢ | 47.0¢ | 1,500 | 1,500 | +$261 (+58.9%) | Aug 20, 2026 | |
| Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?foreign intervention in gaza by | Yes | 29.1¢ | 57.2¢ | 2,929.66 | 2,929.66 | +$822 (+96.3%) | Aug 16, 2026 | |
| Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?which companies will have a 1 ai model by december 31 | No | 85.5¢ | 92.0¢ | 1,637.9 | 1,637.9 | +$107 (+7.7%) | Aug 13, 2026 | |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?israel x iran ceasefire continues throughptptpt 20260716224448963 | Yes | 79.0¢ | 82.0¢ | 1,906.21 | 1,906.21 | +$57 (+3.8%) | Aug 8, 2026 | |
| Will Iran target a Arab country on August 4, 2026?will iran target a arab country onptptpt 20260801004719118 | No | 53.6¢ | 81.0¢ | 661.44 | 661.44 | +$181 (+51.2%) | Aug 7, 2026 | |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 15?israel closes its airspace by | No | 74.6¢ | 85.7¢ | 3,500 | 3,500 | +$390 (+15.0%) | Aug 4, 2026 | |
| Will Trump and Netanyahu not shake hands by July 31, 2026?how long will trump and netanyahu shake hands for 20260724175229942 | Yes | 63.1¢ | 94.7¢ | 1,005.2 | 1,005.2 | +$318 (+50.2%) | Aug 4, 2026 | |
| Will Iran target a Arab country on August 5, 2026?will iran target a arab country onptptpt 20260801004719118 | No | 62.4¢ | 84.8¢ | 305.37 | 305.37 | +$69 (+36.0%) | Aug 3, 2026 | |
| Foreign intervention in Gaza by August 31?foreign intervention in gaza by | No | 77.6¢ | 94.5¢ | 1,722 | 1,722 | +$290 (+21.7%) | Aug 2, 2026 | |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?israel x iran ceasefire continues throughptptpt 20260716224448963 | No | 32.0¢ | 37.0¢ | 1,000 | 1,000 | +$50 (+15.6%) | Aug 1, 2026 | |
| Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31?israel x hamas ceasefire phase ii by october 31 | Yes | 5.0¢ | 49.0¢ | 389.94 | 389.94 | +$172 (+880.0%) | Aug 1, 2026 | |
| Will Trump and Netanyahu hug on Tuesday?will trump and netanyahu hug on tuesday 20260724181151719 | No | 72.0¢ | 96.0¢ | 749.97 | 749.97 | +$180 (+33.3%) | Jul 31, 2026 | |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?will hamaz disarm by december 31 | Yes | 48.4¢ | 90.9¢ | 2,500 | 2,500 | +$1,063 (+87.9%) | Jul 30, 2026 | |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?iran military action against a gulf state onptptpt 20260708212328295 | Yes | 33.3¢ | 54.8¢ | 791.37 | 791.37 | +$170 (+64.5%) | Jul 30, 2026 | |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?us x iran effective ceasfire byptptpt 2 week pause 20260715194822042 | Yes | 39.2¢ | 47.0¢ | 1,500 | 1,500 | +$117 (+19.9%) | Jul 29, 2026 | |
| Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?who will trump meet with in july 20260626153701904 | Yes | 72.8¢ | 97.3¢ | 5,962.91 | 5,962.91 | +$1,459 (+33.6%) | Jul 28, 2026 | |
| Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?saudi arabia military action against yemen byptptpt 20260714210903830 | No | 17.0¢ | 30.2¢ | 2,462.36 | 2,462.36 | +$324 (+77.3%) | Jul 25, 2026 |