◆ Contact Dossier
@Dropper
0x6bab41a0dc40d6dd4c1a915b8c01969479fd1292
4.3
/ 10 · 90D
Narwhal
Class · est. size $1M
90-Day Window4.3 SIG
- Edge / share
- +1.1¢ · 47 resolved
- Hit rate
- 57.6%
- Net P/L · Vol
- -$8.4K / $1M
- % return
- -1.2%
- Observations
- 66
Dive Profile
Return · 90D
+30%
Hypothetical return if you’d copied every trade this wallet made starting from $100, staking 1% of your running balance on each — shown as % gain/loss vs that $100. Scrub the curve to read the markets that settled on any step in the Settlement Log below.
Settlement LogAug 5
+30%
Open positions marked to today’s prices — no markets settled this day.
% return · $100 start · 1% per trade90-day trace
Current Positions
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg Entry | Current | Value | Unrealized P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 115,116.04 | 77.9¢ | 84.5¢ | $97,273 | +$7,640 (+8.5%) |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | No | 44,443.93 | 91.3¢ | 98.1¢ | $43,599 | +$3,011 (+7.4%) |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 30,000 | 50.0¢ | 80.0¢ | $23,985 | +$8,985 (+59.9%) |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 22,221.93 | 71.0¢ | 64.5¢ | $14,333 | -$1,444 (-9.2%) |
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | No | 25,231.15 | 63.8¢ | 54.9¢ | $13,865 | -$2,244 (-13.9%) |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | No | 13,584.27 | 83.0¢ | 95.0¢ | $12,912 | +$1,637 (+14.5%) |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | No | 10,000 | 87.0¢ | 97.5¢ | $9,745 | +$1,045 (+12.0%) |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | No | 11,111 | 87.0¢ | 87.5¢ | $9,722 | +$56 (+0.6%) |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 30,000 | 50.0¢ | 20.1¢ | $6,015 | -$8,985 (-59.9%) |
| Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | No | 4,112.98 | 94.0¢ | 96.6¢ | $3,973 | +$107 (+2.8%) |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 22,088.5 | 41.0¢ | 15.5¢ | $3,424 | -$5,644 (-62.2%) |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 15,724.91 | 24.0¢ | 15.5¢ | $2,437 | -$1,337 (-35.4%) |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | Yes | 11,212.85 | 4.0¢ | 5.0¢ | $555 | +$107 (+23.8%) |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | Yes | 222 | 28.0¢ | 5.5¢ | $12 | -$50 (-80.4%) |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Yes | 188.17 | 10.0¢ | 2.3¢ | $4 | -$14 (-77.0%) |
Trade History
| Market | Outcome | Avg Entry | Avg Exit | Bought | Sold | P/L | Last | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?us announces end of iranian blockade byptptpt 20260713152715080 | No | 87.0¢ | — | 11,111 | 0 | — | Oct 6, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?brazil presidential election first round 3rd place | Yes | 39.9¢ | — | 73.89 | 0 | — | Oct 4, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?brazil presidential election first round 2nd place | Yes | 72.2¢ | — | 14,443 | 0 | — | Sep 23, 2026 |
| ▸ | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?next round of us iran peace talks byptptpt 20260623022722982 | Yes | 85.0¢ | — | 7,831.44 | 0 | — | Sep 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?brazil presidential election | Yes | 38.0¢ | — | 11,110.97 | 0 | — | Sep 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?ballon dor winner 2026 | No | 94.0¢ | — | 4,112.98 | 0 | — | Sep 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?will the us invade iran before 2027 | No | 84.0¢ | — | 25,000 | 0 | — | Sep 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the brazil election | No | 91.0¢ | — | 6.66 | 0 | — | Sep 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?which party will gain most seats in russian parliamentary election | Yes | 89.7¢ | — | 46,982.03 | 0 | — | Sep 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?who will be the next prime minister of israel after the next election | No | 71.0¢ | — | 22,221.93 | 0 | — | Sep 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?fed decision in september 762 | Yes | 86.5¢ | — | 47,776.91 | 0 | — | Sep 16, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?fed decision in september 762 | No | 87.0¢ | — | 6,338.01 | 0 | — | Sep 16, 2026 |
| ▸ | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?clarity act signed into law in 2026 | Yes | 4.0¢ | — | 11,212.85 | 0 | — | Sep 15, 2026 |
| ▸ | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?clarity act signed into law in 2026 | No | 83.0¢ | — | 1,585.82 | 0 | — | Sep 15, 2026 |
| ▸ | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?us x iran effective ceasefire begins byptptpt 2 week pause | Yes | 99.8¢ | — | 17,205.88 | 0 | — | Sep 15, 2026 |
| LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?laptop fdv above one day after launch | Yes | 37.2¢ | 95.4¢ | 25,559 | 25,559 | +$14,890 (+156.7%) | Sep 10, 2026 | |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Bravesmlb lad atl | Atlanta Braves | 51.5¢ | 83.2¢ | 66,677.91 | 66,677.91 | +$21,111 (+61.5%) | Aug 28, 2026 | |
| Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?kai and speed beat minecraft challenge byptptpt 20260807141254095 | Yes | 92.0¢ | 110.8¢ | 141,921.77 | 141,921.77 | +$26,652 (+20.4%) | Aug 13, 2026 | |
| Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12?kai and speed beat minecraft challenge byptptpt 20260807141254095 | Yes | 27.2¢ | 94.9¢ | 30,616.38 | 30,616.38 | +$20,720 (+249.0%) | Aug 13, 2026 | |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?fed decision in july 181 | Yes | 18.4¢ | 100.0¢ | 25,000 | 25,000 | +$20,406 (+444.3%) | Jul 29, 2026 | |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?world cup winner | Yes | 9.6¢ | 45.6¢ | 104,674.78 | 104,674.78 | +$37,755 (+377.3%) | Jul 20, 2026 | |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?world cup winner | No | 63.5¢ | 72.9¢ | 184,673.31 | 184,673.31 | +$17,329 (+14.8%) | Jul 15, 2026 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?us x iran permanent peace deal by | No | 26.8¢ | 49.6¢ | 88,606.68 | 88,606.68 | +$20,148 (+84.8%) | Jun 18, 2026 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?us x iran permanent peace deal by | Yes | 33.5¢ | 87.0¢ | 277,962.35 | 277,962.35 | +$148,746 (+159.8%) | Jun 18, 2026 | |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?peru presidential election winner | No | 5.0¢ | 50.0¢ | 50,000 | 50,000 | +$22,500 (+900.0%) | Jun 9, 2026 | |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?microstrategy sell any bitcoin in 2025 | No | 83.4¢ | 92.3¢ | 681,175.69 | 681,175.69 | +$60,656 (+10.7%) | Jun 8, 2026 | |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?microstrategy sell any bitcoin in 2025 | Yes | 48.3¢ | 78.0¢ | 203,450.02 | 203,450.02 | +$60,464 (+61.5%) | Jun 8, 2026 | |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?microstrategy sell any bitcoin in 2025 | Yes | 67.0¢ | 95.4¢ | 210,167.44 | 210,167.44 | +$59,608 (+42.3%) | Jun 1, 2026 | |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?trump announces us blockade of hormuz lifted by | No | 38.5¢ | 89.6¢ | 62,144.73 | 62,144.73 | +$31,740 (+132.6%) | Jun 1, 2026 | |
| Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or below on May 17?arch arch lowest temperature in seoul on may 17 2026 | Yes | 39.8¢ | 94.4¢ | 230,000 | 230,000 | +$125,582 (+137.2%) | May 18, 2026 | |
| Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?clavicular pregnancy in 2026 | No | 4.3¢ | 35.0¢ | 290,575.57 | 290,575.57 | +$89,090 (+713.0%) | May 4, 2026 | |
| Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by | Yes | 29.6¢ | 100.0¢ | 43,843.24 | 43,843.24 | +$30,870 (+238.0%) | May 4, 2026 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?us x iran ceasefire by | Yes | 98.9¢ | 103.8¢ | 361,917.73 | 361,917.73 | +$17,958 (+5.0%) | Apr 16, 2026 | |
| Netanyahu out by March 31?netanyahu out before 2027 | No | 94.8¢ | 100.0¢ | 297,682.39 | 297,682.39 | +$15,470 (+5.5%) | Apr 5, 2026 | |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?will iran close the strait of hormuz by 2027 | No | 20.2¢ | 34.1¢ | 130,961.29 | 130,961.29 | +$18,192 (+68.6%) | Mar 14, 2026 | |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?who will trump nominate as fed chair | Yes | 2.2¢ | 9.4¢ | 253,257.71 | 253,257.71 | +$18,327 (+330.4%) | Mar 4, 2026 | |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28 | Yes | 78.4¢ | 100.0¢ | 199,880.91 | 199,880.91 | +$43,212 (+27.6%) | Mar 4, 2026 | |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?us strikes iran by | Yes | 73.1¢ | 92.4¢ | 145,796.43 | 145,796.43 | +$28,130 (+26.4%) | Mar 1, 2026 | |
| Will Axiom be accused of insider trading?which crypto company will zachxbt expose for insider trading | Yes | 28.0¢ | 50.8¢ | 114,591.84 | 114,591.84 | +$26,104 (+81.4%) | Feb 26, 2026 | |
| US government shutdown Saturday?will there be another us government shutdown by january 31 | No | 22.0¢ | 35.3¢ | 120,949.82 | 120,949.82 | +$16,132 (+60.7%) | Feb 4, 2026 | |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31 | Yes | 4.0¢ | 20.9¢ | 214,718.31 | 214,718.31 | +$36,371 (+423.5%) | Feb 2, 2026 | |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?fed decision in january | Yes | 31.1¢ | 100.0¢ | 62,221.98 | 62,221.98 | +$42,872 (+221.6%) | Jan 31, 2026 | |
| Weed rescheduled in 2025?weed rescheduled in 2025 | Yes | 5.3¢ | 50.0¢ | 77,948.38 | 77,948.38 | +$34,862 (+850.3%) | Dec 18, 2025 | |
| Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?trump declassifies ufo files in 2025 | No | 50.0¢ | 79.1¢ | 57,104.06 | 57,104.06 | +$16,627 (+58.2%) | Dec 10, 2025 | |
| Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year?1 searched person on google this year | Yes | 39.6¢ | 100.0¢ | 69,513.28 | 69,513.28 | +$41,961 (+152.3%) | Dec 8, 2025 | |
| MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8?microstrategy announces 1000 btc purchase december 2 8 | Yes | 44.1¢ | 100.0¢ | 58,812.28 | 58,812.28 | +$32,888 (+126.9%) | Dec 8, 2025 | |
| Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?top 5 most searched people on google 2025 | No | 62.1¢ | 100.0¢ | 42,165.49 | 42,165.49 | +$15,976 (+61.0%) | Dec 4, 2025 | |
| Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale?monad public sale total commitments | Yes | 48.6¢ | 66.9¢ | 164,036.29 | 164,036.29 | +$30,070 (+37.7%) | Nov 23, 2025 | |
| Will the government shutdown end November 12?what day will the government shutdown end | No | 11.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 22,221.99 | 22,221.99 | +$19,778 (+809.1%) | Nov 17, 2025 | |
| Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale?over 1pt8b committed to the megaeth public sale | Yes | 62.6¢ | 94.6¢ | 60,374.94 | 60,374.94 | +$19,324 (+51.1%) | Oct 30, 2025 | |
| Hyperliquid daily fees above $8M in 2025?hyperliquid daily fees above 8m in 2025 | No | 3.0¢ | 45.8¢ | 45,285.22 | 45,285.22 | +$19,409 (+1443.1%) | Oct 13, 2025 | |
| Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1?of views of next mrbeast video on day 1 916 | Yes | 65.2¢ | 93.5¢ | 52,596.58 | 52,596.58 | +$14,914 (+43.5%) | Oct 6, 2025 | |
| Will another MrBeast video get 55m+ day 1 views by September 30?will another mrbeast video get 55m day 1 views by september 30 | No | 55.0¢ | 92.6¢ | 43,856.34 | 43,856.34 | +$16,498 (+68.4%) | Oct 1, 2025 | |
| Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?lord miles completes 40 day water fast in the dessert | Yes | 40.1¢ | 55.8¢ | 176,062.07 | 176,062.07 | +$27,685 (+39.3%) | Sep 29, 2025 | |
| Will Native Markets win the USDH ticker?who will win the usdh ticker 159 | Yes | 57.4¢ | 91.8¢ | 49,312.91 | 49,312.91 | +$17,007 (+60.1%) | Sep 14, 2025 | |
| Will Jonas Gahr Støre become the next Prime Minister of Norway?next prime minister of norway | Yes | 5.3¢ | 100.0¢ | 18,198.07 | 18,198.07 | +$17,241 (+1804.6%) | Sep 9, 2025 | |
| Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31?will mrbeast raise 40m for clean water by august 31 | No | 2.6¢ | 28.5¢ | 167,506.95 | 167,506.95 | +$43,333 (+995.0%) | Aug 31, 2025 | |
| Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?will zelenskyy wear a suit before july | No | 97.1¢ | 100.6¢ | 656,290.15 | 656,290.15 | +$23,228 (+3.6%) | Jul 9, 2025 | |
| Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?fordow nuclear facility destroyed before july | Yes | 95.1¢ | 102.6¢ | 238,177.76 | 238,177.76 | +$17,873 (+7.9%) | Jul 1, 2025 | |
| US military action against Iran before July?us military action against iran before july | Yes | 52.8¢ | 66.8¢ | 117,953.34 | 117,953.34 | +$16,572 (+26.6%) | Jun 23, 2025 | |
| Will South Korea presidential election winner get over 50% of votes?will south korea presidential election winner get over 50 of votes | Yes | 0.1¢ | 37.3¢ | 98,000 | 98,000 | +$36,410 (+37153.0%) | Jun 8, 2025 | |
| Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?next president of south korea | Yes | 44.9¢ | 100.0¢ | 90,230.24 | 90,230.24 | +$49,677 (+122.5%) | Jun 3, 2025 | |
| Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea?next president of south korea | Yes | 2.8¢ | 50.0¢ | 50,553 | 50,553 | +$23,851 (+1679.0%) | Jun 3, 2025 | |
| Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%?romanian presidential election margin of victory | Yes | 72.1¢ | 100.0¢ | 107,438.31 | 107,438.31 | +$29,972 (+38.7%) | May 21, 2025 | |
| Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president?people power party ppp presidential candidate | Yes | 100.0¢ | 102.3¢ | 2,246,100 | 2,246,100 | +$50,659 (+2.3%) | May 4, 2025 |