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@shinyandrew
0x60ccc2ea4a54b191b6114fa769c03359bb1af23f
5.8
/ 10 · 90D
Beluga
Class · est. size $14.5K
90-Day Window5.8 SIG
- Edge / share
- +10.0¢ · 31 resolved
- Hit rate
- 66.7%
- Net P/L · Vol
- $9.6K / $14.5K
- % return
- +77.2%
- Observations
- 33
Dive Profile
Return · 90D
0.0%
Hypothetical return if you’d copied every trade this wallet made starting from $100, staking 1% of your running balance on each — shown as % gain/loss vs that $100. Scrub the curve to read the markets that settled on any step in the Settlement Log below.
% return · $100 start · 1% per trade90-day trace
Current Positions
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg Entry | Current | Value | Unrealized P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the West Virginia Senate race in 2026? | No | 999.94 | 93.0¢ | 98.9¢ | $988 | +$58 (+6.3%) |
| Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? | No | 1,000 | 96.6¢ | 98.5¢ | $985 | +$19 (+2.0%) |
| Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 9,999.99 | 2.1¢ | 0.1¢ | $5 | -$205 (-97.6%) |
| Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 9,374.11 | 0.9¢ | 0.1¢ | $5 | -$79 (-94.4%) |
| Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 2,341.81 | 0.3¢ | 0.1¢ | $1 | -$5 (-82.4%) |
| Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 103.29 | 2.0¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$2 (-97.5%) |
Trade History
| Market | Outcome | Avg Entry | Avg Exit | Bought | Sold | P/L | Last | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win between 30% and 33% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?brazil presidential election first round flavio bolsonaro vote share | Yes | 0.1¢ | — | 1,979.85 | 0 | — | Oct 3, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win less than 30% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?brazil presidential election first round flavio bolsonaro vote share | Yes | 0.1¢ | — | 3,170.59 | 0 | — | Oct 3, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win between 33% and 36% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?brazil presidential election first round flavio bolsonaro vote share | Yes | 0.4¢ | — | 2,258.65 | 0 | — | Oct 3, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15%?brazil presidential election first round margin of victory | Yes | 0.6¢ | — | 1,698.88 | 0 | — | Oct 3, 2026 |
| ▸ | Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?republican trifecta with supermajority in the senate | No | 96.6¢ | — | 1,000 | 0 | — | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?berlin state election winner | No | 40.2¢ | 68.0¢ | 589.31 | 589.31 | +$164 (+69.4%) | Sep 21, 2026 | |
| ▸ | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026friedrich merz out as chancellor of germany before 2027 | Yes | 6.0¢ | — | 4,000 | 0 | — | Sep 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?which party will gain most seats in russian parliamentary election | Yes | 0.8¢ | — | 25,499.96 | 0 | — | Sep 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will AfD win the most seats in 1 German state election in September 2026?afd wins the most seats in how many september state elections 20260630185301104 | Yes | 15.0¢ | 11.7¢ | 386.64 | 3,417.17 | — | Sep 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?mecklenburg vorpommern parliamentary election winner | No | 14.1¢ | 26.0¢ | 7,030 | 7,030 | +$813 (+82.1%) | Sep 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?mecklenburg vorpommern parliamentary election winner | Yes | 15.9¢ | 52.5¢ | 3,225.75 | 3,225.74 | +$1,180 (+230.2%) | Sep 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will CDU win the 2026 Berlin state election by a margin of 2-5%?berlin state election vote share margin of victory | Yes | 2.0¢ | — | 18.8 | 0 | — | Sep 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will SPD win the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election by a margin of 5-10%?mecklenburg vorpommern parliamentary election vote share margin of victory | Yes | 0.3¢ | — | 10.96 | 0 | — | Sep 17, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?berlin state election winner | Yes | — | 1.4¢ | 0 | 1,918.01 | — | Sep 9, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will AfD win 34-37 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?sachsen anhalt parliamentary elections afd of seats 20260722230807017 | Yes | — | 0.3¢ | 0 | 1,392.94 | — | Sep 6, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the AfD win the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary election by less than 10%?sachsen anhalt parliamentary election margin of victory | Yes | 1.0¢ | 0.4¢ | 10,000 | 700 | — | Sep 6, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?will afd win an absolute majority of seats in sachsen anhalt | No | 49.0¢ | 75.0¢ | 798.8 | 798.79 | +$201 (+51.4%) | Sep 6, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?sachsen anhalt parliamentary election winner | No | 0.2¢ | — | 273.21 | 0 | — | Sep 6, 2026 |
| Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 20% and 40%?clacton by election margin of victory 20260709153837820 | Yes | 14.8¢ | 100.0¢ | 1,000 | 1,000 | +$852 (+575.7%) | Aug 14, 2026 | |
| Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more?clacton by election margin of victory 20260709153837820 | No | 49.2¢ | 74.0¢ | 511 | 511 | +$127 (+50.5%) | Aug 14, 2026 | |
| Will Dan Barker win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?greater manchester mayoral election winner 20260619154130299 | No | 89.5¢ | 99.9¢ | 1,105.62 | 1,105.62 | +$115 (+11.6%) | Aug 1, 2026 | |
| Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?colombia presidential election runoff margin of victory 20260604201910879 | Yes | 13.0¢ | 27.9¢ | 1,499.99 | 1,499.99 | +$223 (+114.3%) | Jun 25, 2026 | |
| Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?colombia presidential election | No | 61.0¢ | 77.2¢ | 1,014.47 | 1,014.47 | +$165 (+26.6%) | Jun 24, 2026 | |
| Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?makerfield by election restore britain receives 10 20260609002937160 | No | 71.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 1,000 | 1,000 | +$290 (+40.8%) | Jun 19, 2026 | |
| Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election?makerfield by election 2nd place | No | 87.5¢ | 100.0¢ | 1,000 | 1,000 | +$125 (+14.3%) | Jun 19, 2026 | |
| Will a candidate win the 2026 Colombian presidential election in the first round?colombia election who will advance to 2nd round | No | 87.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 1,000 | 1,000 | +$130 (+15.0%) | Jun 15, 2026 | |
| Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?slovenian parliamentary election winner 791 | No | 12.1¢ | 86.7¢ | 17,067.63 | 17,067.63 | +$12,733 (+618.1%) | Mar 31, 2026 | |
| Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?slovenian parliamentary election winner 791 | Yes | 7.2¢ | 87.3¢ | 4,632.29 | 4,632.29 | +$3,711 (+1109.5%) | Mar 31, 2026 | |
| Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?rhineland palatinate parliamentary election winner | Yes | 15.3¢ | 42.0¢ | 1,753.17 | 1,753.17 | +$468 (+174.9%) | Mar 23, 2026 | |
| Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections 2nd place | Yes | 3.0¢ | 56.9¢ | 427.15 | 427.15 | +$230 (+1796.7%) | Mar 14, 2026 | |
| Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?who will win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections | Yes | 4.2¢ | 42.1¢ | 10,453.24 | 10,453.24 | +$3,956 (+892.7%) | Mar 9, 2026 | |
| Will Matt Goodwin – Reform win the Gorton and Denton by-election?gorton and denton by election winner | No | 53.6¢ | 70.0¢ | 1,194.99 | 1,194.99 | +$196 (+30.6%) | Feb 27, 2026 | |
| Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?portugal presidential election | Yes | 5.2¢ | 14.2¢ | 5,585.77 | 5,585.77 | +$504 (+172.5%) | Feb 9, 2026 | |
| Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?portugal presidential election | Yes | 4.6¢ | 19.1¢ | 2,999.99 | 2,999.99 | +$436 (+315.7%) | Feb 9, 2026 | |
| Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win less than 12% of votes in the first round?henrique gouveia e melo vote share in portuguese presidential first round | Yes | 4.9¢ | 14.9¢ | 3,284.35 | 3,284.35 | +$328 (+202.7%) | Jan 19, 2026 | |
| Will António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?portugal presidential election 1st round winner | Yes | 4.5¢ | 11.2¢ | 4,999.93 | 4,999.93 | +$336 (+149.2%) | Jan 19, 2026 | |
| Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?honduras presidential election | Yes | 11.0¢ | 41.2¢ | 2,000 | 2,000 | +$604 (+274.7%) | Dec 1, 2025 | |
| Will the Democrats 66 win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?which party wins 2nd most seats in netherlands election | Yes | 0.8¢ | 27.1¢ | 3,212.47 | 3,212.47 | +$844 (+3327.1%) | Nov 2, 2025 | |
| Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?netherlands parliamentary election | Yes | 0.4¢ | 22.2¢ | 34,999.66 | 34,999.66 | +$7,645 (+5600.7%) | Nov 2, 2025 | |
| Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?netherlands parliamentary election | No | 23.0¢ | 58.5¢ | 1,185.98 | 1,185.98 | +$420 (+154.1%) | Nov 2, 2025 | |
| Will GreenLeft–Labour win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?netherlands parliamentary election | Yes | 7.4¢ | 13.0¢ | 4,999.98 | 4,999.98 | +$280 (+75.8%) | Nov 2, 2025 | |
| Will LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?which party wins most seats in argentina deputies election | No | 20.0¢ | 42.0¢ | 500 | 500 | +$110 (+110.0%) | Oct 4, 2025 | |
| Elon no longer world's richest before 2026?musk no longer richest person in the world by end of year | Yes | 22.0¢ | 85.0¢ | 911 | 911 | +$574 (+286.4%) | Sep 10, 2025 | |
| Will another person win the Bolivian election?bolivia presidential election margin of victory | Yes | 2.3¢ | 100.0¢ | 9,999.99 | 9,999.99 | +$9,770 (+4247.8%) | Aug 23, 2025 | |
| Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 2?nyc mayoral dem primary of rcv rounds | Yes | 5.2¢ | 8.5¢ | 7,467.46 | 7,467.46 | +$246 (+63.7%) | Jul 26, 2025 | |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent?party of next prime minister of romania | Yes | 6.0¢ | 22.9¢ | 1,670 | 1,670 | +$282 (+281.6%) | Jun 24, 2025 | |
| Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be less than 5%?nyc mayoral dem primary andrew cuomo mov | Yes | 5.0¢ | 64.0¢ | 340.54 | 340.54 | +$201 (+1180.4%) | Jun 14, 2025 | |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 8-11%?south korea presidential election margin of victory | Yes | 8.0¢ | 59.9¢ | 329.63 | 329.63 | +$171 (+648.8%) | Jun 4, 2025 | |
| Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?poland presidential election | No | 18.4¢ | 35.8¢ | 12,500 | 12,500 | +$2,168 (+94.1%) | Jun 2, 2025 | |
| Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority?next government of canada | Yes | 12.0¢ | 96.4¢ | 4,219.4 | 4,219.4 | +$3,559 (+703.0%) | May 20, 2025 | |
| Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?who will be the next pope | Yes | 3.4¢ | 24.2¢ | 10,000 | 10,000 | +$2,081 (+619.2%) | May 8, 2025 | |
| Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?who will be the next pope | No | 73.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 5,000 | 5,000 | +$1,350 (+37.0%) | May 8, 2025 | |
| Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope?who will be the next pope | No | 94.8¢ | 100.0¢ | 5,000 | 5,000 | +$260 (+5.5%) | May 8, 2025 | |
| Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope?who will be the next pope | Yes | 3.4¢ | 5.5¢ | 10,000 | 10,000 | +$211 (+62.7%) | May 8, 2025 | |
| Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope?who will be the next pope | Yes | 3.4¢ | 12.0¢ | 10,000 | 10,000 | +$865 (+257.5%) | May 8, 2025 | |
| Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope?who will be the next pope | No | 88.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 5,000 | 5,000 | +$601 (+13.7%) | May 8, 2025 | |
| Will Peter Turkson be the next pope?who will be the next pope | Yes | 3.4¢ | 10.3¢ | 10,000 | 10,000 | +$687 (+203.3%) | May 8, 2025 | |
| Will Peter Turkson be the next pope?who will be the next pope | No | 87.5¢ | 100.0¢ | 4,999.38 | 4,999.38 | +$627 (+14.4%) | May 8, 2025 | |
| Will Péter Erdő be the next pope?who will be the next pope | No | 94.3¢ | 97.2¢ | 10,000 | 10,000 | +$283 (+3.0%) | May 8, 2025 | |
| Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope?who will be the next pope | Yes | 3.4¢ | 100.0¢ | 10,000 | 10,000 | +$9,661 (+2849.7%) | May 8, 2025 | |
| Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?who will be the next pope | Yes | 3.4¢ | 20.4¢ | 10,000 | 10,000 | +$1,706 (+507.6%) | May 8, 2025 | |
| Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?who will be the next pope | No | 80.9¢ | 100.0¢ | 5,000 | 5,000 | +$955 (+23.6%) | May 8, 2025 | |
| Will the Australian Labor Party win 85 or more seats?of seats labor win in australian election | Yes | 5.3¢ | 98.7¢ | 4,607 | 4,607 | +$4,301 (+1754.8%) | May 7, 2025 | |
| Will the Liberal–National Coalition win less than 45 seats?of seats liberalnational coalition wins in australian election | Yes | 1.5¢ | 94.4¢ | 2,120.41 | 2,120.41 | +$1,970 (+6152.1%) | May 3, 2025 |