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0x506f...e8bb
0x506f3851ab75685ea3622bf4dd9d28cacadfe8bb
0.0
/ 10 · 90D
Porpoise
Class · est. size $200.1K
90-Day Window0.0 SIG
- Edge / share
- -0.0¢ · 264 resolved
- Hit rate
- 61.4%
- Net P/L · Vol
- $103.9 / $200.1K
- % return
- 0.0%
- Observations
- 598
Dive Profile
Return · 90D
0.0%
Hypothetical return if you’d copied every trade this wallet made starting from $100, staking 1% of your running balance on each — shown as % gain/loss vs that $100. Scrub the curve to read the markets that settled on any step in the Settlement Log below.
% return · $100 start · 1% per trade90-day trace
Current Positions
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg Entry | Current | Value | Unrealized P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | Yes | 1,500.01 | 60.8¢ | 62.5¢ | $938 | +$26 (+2.8%) |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | No | 400.01 | 54.5¢ | 85.5¢ | $342 | +$124 (+56.8%) |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 250 | 75.1¢ | 87.5¢ | $219 | +$31 (+16.6%) |
| Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? | No | 158.78 | 83.5¢ | 87.5¢ | $139 | +$6 (+4.7%) |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 165 | 64.6¢ | 66.5¢ | $110 | +$3 (+2.9%) |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day? | No | 99.99 | 89.1¢ | 95.5¢ | $96 | +$6 (+7.2%) |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 2,900 | 3.2¢ | 2.6¢ | $77 | -$16 (-17.3%) |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? | No | 80 | 63.5¢ | 82.5¢ | $66 | +$15 (+29.9%) |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | Yes | 150 | 33.0¢ | 40.5¢ | $61 | +$11 (+22.7%) |
| Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 78.1 | 86.3¢ | 67.5¢ | $53 | -$15 (-21.8%) |
| Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? | No | 50 | 85.1¢ | 88.5¢ | $44 | +$2 (+4.0%) |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | No | 49.98 | 61.0¢ | 50.5¢ | $25 | -$5 (-17.2%) |
| Tuyo FDV above $20M one day after launch? | No | 30.79 | 83.5¢ | 67.0¢ | $21 | -$5 (-19.8%) |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? | No | 26.94 | 35.7¢ | 60.0¢ | $16 | +$7 (+67.9%) |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? | No | 20 | 73.0¢ | 74.0¢ | $15 | +$0 (+1.4%) |
| Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026? | Yes | 30 | 33.0¢ | 21.0¢ | $6 | -$4 (-36.4%) |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? | No | 10 | 26.0¢ | 37.5¢ | $4 | +$1 (+44.2%) |
| Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 16.47 | 27.4¢ | 22.0¢ | $4 | -$1 (-19.8%) |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 10 | 47.1¢ | 35.5¢ | $4 | -$1 (-24.7%) |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | No | 4.35 | 77.0¢ | 67.5¢ | $3 | -$0 (-12.3%) |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? | Yes | 40 | 6.5¢ | 6.3¢ | $3 | -$0 (-3.8%) |
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | No | 33.39 | 37.2¢ | 5.2¢ | $2 | -$11 (-86.0%) |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? | No | 2.7 | 16.0¢ | 27.5¢ | $1 | +$0 (+71.9%) |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 340 | 19.2¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$65 (-99.5%) |
| Tuyo FDV above $80M one day after launch? | Yes | 1.17 | 28.0¢ | 18.5¢ | $0 | -$0 (-33.9%) |
Trade History
| Market | Outcome | Avg Entry | Avg Exit | Bought | Sold | P/L | Last | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?clarity act signed into law in 2026 | No | — | 73.8¢ | 0 | 1,404.19 | — | Aug 4, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?largest ipo by market cap in 2026 287 | Yes | — | 93.0¢ | 0 | 200.01 | — | Aug 3, 2026 |
| ▸ | Fed rate hike in 2026?fed rate hike in 2026 | Yes | — | 63.2¢ | 0 | 2,221.47 | — | Aug 3, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?will the us invade iran before 2027 | Yes | — | 23.6¢ | 0 | 310 | — | Aug 1, 2026 |
| ▸ | Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?another sp 500 company buys bitcoin by november 30 | No | — | 79.2¢ | 0 | 0.66 | — | Aug 1, 2026 |
| ▸ | OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?openai ipo closing market cap above | No | — | 20.0¢ | 0 | 20 | — | Aug 1, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?will openai release a social network in 2026 | Yes | — | 10.0¢ | 0 | 50.95 | — | Aug 1, 2026 |
| ▸ | Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?pedro snchez out as pm of spain by | Yes | — | 19.0¢ | 0 | 39.99 | — | Aug 1, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?california governor election 2026 | Yes | — | 6.0¢ | 0 | 210 | — | Aug 1, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?how many fed rate cuts in 2026 | Yes | — | 5.0¢ | 0 | 249.99 | — | Aug 1, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Tuyo launch a token by December 31, 2026?will tuyo launch a token by | Yes | — | 25.4¢ | 0 | 108.99 | — | Aug 1, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?how many fed rate cuts in 2026 | Yes | — | 82.3¢ | 0 | 652.53 | — | Aug 1, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?alaska governor election winner | No | — | 85.5¢ | 0 | 188.98 | — | Jul 26, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?how many fed rate cuts in 2026 | Yes | 3.0¢ | — | 2,550 | 0 | — | Jul 24, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?fed decision in july 181 | No | 20.5¢ | 25.4¢ | 800 | 800 | — | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?world cup winner | Yes | 16.1¢ | 86.8¢ | 959.99 | 959.99 | +$679 (+438.8%) | Jul 20, 2026 | |
| ▸ | Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?major meteor strike 10kt in 2026 | No | — | 91.0¢ | 0 | 20 | — | Jul 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?openai ipo closing market cap | Yes | — | 83.0¢ | 0 | 200 | — | Jul 18, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?will the us confirm that aliens exist before 2027 | Yes | — | 8.0¢ | 0 | 1,030 | — | Jul 17, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?which continent will win the world cup | Yes | — | 85.0¢ | 0 | 400 | — | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?world cup winner | No | 78.0¢ | 95.4¢ | 1,000 | 1,000 | +$174 (+22.3%) | Jul 15, 2026 | |
| ▸ | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?will the us confirm that aliens exist before 2027 | Yes | — | 3.6¢ | 0 | 630 | — | Jul 13, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?fed decision in july 181 | Yes | 74.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 1,000 | 0 | +$260 (+35.1%) | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31?iran closes its airspace by | No | 65.6¢ | 78.5¢ | 1,300.54 | 1,300.54 | +$168 (+19.7%) | Jun 21, 2026 | |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?us x iran diplomatic meeting by 329 | No | 57.5¢ | 70.8¢ | 1,299.99 | 1,299.99 | +$173 (+23.2%) | Jun 21, 2026 | |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?trump announces us blockade of hormuz lifted by | Yes | 73.0¢ | 99.6¢ | 600 | 600 | +$160 (+36.4%) | Jun 14, 2026 | |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?trump announces us blockade of hormuz lifted by | Yes | 37.0¢ | 99.1¢ | 1,184.98 | 1,184.98 | +$735 (+167.7%) | Jun 14, 2026 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of june | No | 80.7¢ | 87.9¢ | 3,881.47 | 3,881.47 | +$277 (+8.8%) | Jun 13, 2026 | |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?trump declassifies new ufo files by 648 | Yes | 70.4¢ | 95.6¢ | 799.55 | 799.55 | +$202 (+35.8%) | Jun 12, 2026 | |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?trump declassifies new ufo files by 648 | Yes | 30.9¢ | 73.9¢ | 399.97 | 399.97 | +$172 (+138.9%) | Jun 12, 2026 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?us x iran permanent peace deal by | No | 26.5¢ | 38.2¢ | 1,600 | 1,600 | +$188 (+44.3%) | Jun 8, 2026 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?us x iran permanent peace deal by | No | 64.6¢ | 68.9¢ | 3,814.05 | 3,814.05 | +$167 (+6.8%) | Jun 7, 2026 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 31 | No | 36.0¢ | 63.0¢ | 600 | 600 | +$162 (+75.0%) | Jun 5, 2026 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?us x iran permanent peace deal by | No | 87.0¢ | 93.0¢ | 5,720 | 5,720 | +$345 (+6.9%) | Jun 1, 2026 | |
| Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election2026 seoul mayoral election winner | No | 72.0¢ | 77.8¢ | 3,149.98 | 3,149.98 | +$182 (+8.0%) | Jun 1, 2026 | |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?trump announces us blockade of hormuz lifted by | No | 23.3¢ | 71.8¢ | 800 | 800 | +$388 (+208.6%) | May 30, 2026 | |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?microstrategy sell any bitcoin in 2025 | No | 72.4¢ | 82.7¢ | 6,649.97 | 6,649.97 | +$687 (+14.3%) | May 29, 2026 | |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?iran ceasefire continues through | No | 0.3¢ | 35.0¢ | 1,140.01 | 1,140.01 | +$396 (+13895.1%) | May 26, 2026 | |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?iran ceasefire continues through | Yes | 43.7¢ | 60.5¢ | 1,418.16 | 1,418.16 | +$238 (+38.4%) | May 26, 2026 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?us x iran permanent peace deal by | Yes | 5.0¢ | 23.1¢ | 1,000 | 1,000 | +$181 (+362.0%) | May 26, 2026 | |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?iran ceasefire continues through | Yes | 74.6¢ | 80.9¢ | 3,600 | 3,600 | +$228 (+8.5%) | May 25, 2026 | |
| Will Trump attend his son's wedding?will trump attend his sons wedding | Yes | 0.1¢ | 24.7¢ | 800 | 800 | +$196 (+16350.0%) | May 25, 2026 | |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?iran ceasefire continues through | Yes | 61.0¢ | 76.5¢ | 1,199.98 | 1,199.98 | +$186 (+25.4%) | May 24, 2026 | |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?iran ceasefire continues through | Yes | 73.1¢ | 80.2¢ | 3,165.38 | 3,165.38 | +$224 (+9.7%) | May 23, 2026 | |
| Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?spacex starship flight test 12 | Yes | 62.2¢ | 95.3¢ | 1,099.98 | 1,099.98 | +$364 (+53.3%) | May 23, 2026 | |
| Ebola case in the US by June 30?ebola case in the us by june 30 | No | 70.7¢ | 76.5¢ | 4,131.38 | 4,131.38 | +$238 (+8.1%) | May 23, 2026 | |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?spacex starship flight test 12 | No | 20.0¢ | 50.0¢ | 600 | 600 | +$180 (+150.0%) | May 22, 2026 | |
| Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?spacex ipo by | No | 7.2¢ | 50.0¢ | 400 | 400 | +$171 (+589.7%) | May 19, 2026 | |
| Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?will elon musk win his case against sam altman | No | 75.1¢ | 99.6¢ | 700 | 700 | +$171 (+32.5%) | May 18, 2026 | |
| Starmer out by May 15, 2026?starmer out in 2025 | No | 66.7¢ | 87.8¢ | 764.4 | 764.4 | +$161 (+31.6%) | May 12, 2026 | |
| Will Rare Earths Americas' market cap be between $300M and $400M at market close on IPO day?rare earths americas ipo closing market cap | Yes | 39.2¢ | 100.0¢ | 314.54 | 314.54 | +$191 (+154.9%) | May 7, 2026 | |
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 4?spy up or down on may 4 2026 | Down | 37.0¢ | 92.7¢ | 1,157.75 | 1,157.75 | +$645 (+150.6%) | May 4, 2026 | |
| Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale?printr public sale total commitments | No | 44.3¢ | 98.4¢ | 300 | 300 | +$162 (+122.0%) | Apr 30, 2026 | |
| Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?how many 7pt0 or above earthquakes by june 30 | Yes | 69.2¢ | 93.6¢ | 1,299.99 | 1,299.99 | +$317 (+35.2%) | Apr 28, 2026 | |
| Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?will megaeth launch a token by | Yes | 36.1¢ | 94.3¢ | 1,110 | 1,110 | +$646 (+161.1%) | Apr 27, 2026 | |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by | No | 79.5¢ | 96.4¢ | 1,200 | 1,200 | +$203 (+21.3%) | Apr 25, 2026 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?us x iran permanent peace deal by | No | 72.3¢ | 88.9¢ | 1,619.99 | 1,619.99 | +$270 (+23.1%) | Apr 25, 2026 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?us x iran permanent peace deal by | No | 83.5¢ | 99.9¢ | 1,610 | 1,610 | +$263 (+19.6%) | Apr 23, 2026 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by april 30 | No | 70.1¢ | 92.5¢ | 2,119.97 | 2,119.97 | +$475 (+31.9%) | Apr 22, 2026 | |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30?will trump visit china by | No | 58.0¢ | 99.0¢ | 499.99 | 499.99 | +$205 (+70.6%) | Apr 20, 2026 | |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?lighter market cap fdv one day after launch | No | 64.6¢ | 97.8¢ | 610 | 610 | +$203 (+51.4%) | Dec 30, 2025 | |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?us x venezuela military engagement by | No | 71.5¢ | 90.4¢ | 1,359.98 | 1,359.98 | +$256 (+26.4%) | Dec 12, 2025 | |
| MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8?microstrategy announces 1000 btc purchase december 2 8 | Yes | 66.2¢ | 100.0¢ | 749.97 | 749.97 | +$253 (+51.1%) | Dec 11, 2025 | |
| Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?when will the government shutdown end 545 | Yes | 28.0¢ | 89.0¢ | 600 | 600 | +$366 (+217.8%) | Nov 10, 2025 | |
| Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?when will the government shutdown end 545 | No | 55.7¢ | 92.8¢ | 643.16 | 643.16 | +$239 (+66.7%) | Nov 10, 2025 | |
| Will Trump pardon CZ by October 31?will trump pardon cz by october 31 | Yes | 12.0¢ | 99.6¢ | 200 | 200 | +$175 (+730.0%) | Oct 23, 2025 | |
| Arizona State vs. Baylorcfb azst bay | Arizona State | 44.3¢ | 100.0¢ | 310 | 310 | +$173 (+125.6%) | Sep 26, 2025 | |
| Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?presidential election popular vote winner 2024 | No | 32.3¢ | 100.0¢ | 1,547.99 | 1,547.99 | +$1,048 (+209.6%) | Nov 13, 2024 | |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?presidential election winner 2024 | Yes | 59.6¢ | 100.0¢ | 415.25 | 415.25 | +$168 (+67.8%) | Nov 7, 2024 | |
| Biden drops out of presidential race?will biden drop out of presidential race | Yes | 35.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 600 | 600 | +$390 (+185.7%) | Jul 23, 2024 |