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@Vilgefortz
0x3c918a8ef8c379304f744592120cbb4d76149af7
4.3
/ 10 · 90D
Narwhal
Class · est. size $418.3K
90-Day Window4.3 SIG
- Edge / share
- +1.8¢ · 21 resolved
- Hit rate
- 73.1%
- Net P/L · Vol
- $52.2K / $418.3K
- % return
- +9.3%
- Observations
- 26
Dive Profile
Return · 90D
+13.7K%
Hypothetical return if you’d copied every trade this wallet made starting from $100, staking 1% of your running balance on each — shown as % gain/loss vs that $100. Scrub the curve to read the markets that settled on any step in the Settlement Log below.
Settlement LogJun 23
+13.7K%
Open positions marked to today’s prices — no markets settled this day.
% return · $100 start · 1% per trade90-day trace
Current Positions
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg Entry | Current | Value | Unrealized P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 112,000 | 89.4¢ | 92.5¢ | $103,600 | +$3,455 (+3.4%) |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 103,000 | 78.9¢ | 84.5¢ | $87,035 | +$5,786 (+7.1%) |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? | No | 32,000 | 84.7¢ | 87.5¢ | $28,000 | +$900 (+3.3%) |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | No | 26,000 | 91.8¢ | 97.5¢ | $25,363 | +$1,490 (+6.2%) |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 37,000 | 21.2¢ | 23.9¢ | $8,862 | +$1,000 (+12.7%) |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 7,900.23 | 53.8¢ | 51.5¢ | $4,069 | -$184 (-4.3%) |
| Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? | Yes | 4,800 | 38.7¢ | 27.5¢ | $1,320 | -$538 (-28.9%) |
Trade History
| Market | Outcome | Avg Entry | Avg Exit | Bought | Sold | P/L | Last | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?texas senate election winner | Yes | 52.9¢ | 57.0¢ | 3,209.88 | 309.65 | — | Aug 6, 2026 |
| ▸ | Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?jerome powell out from fed board by | Yes | 31.5¢ | — | 1,452.97 | 0 | — | Aug 6, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?will the us invade iran before 2027 | No | 83.9¢ | 79.6¢ | 5,290 | 50,090 | — | Aug 3, 2026 |
| ▸ | Nothing Ever Happens: 2026nothing ever happens 2026 | Yes | 67.9¢ | 76.5¢ | 1,400 | 2,099.99 | — | Aug 2, 2026 |
| ▸ | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31 | No | 91.4¢ | 97.8¢ | 24,600 | 10,600 | — | Jul 27, 2026 |
| ▸ | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31 | No | 96.6¢ | 99.2¢ | 3,800 | 3,800 | — | Jul 27, 2026 |
| ▸ | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?putin out before 2027 | No | 86.6¢ | 90.9¢ | 12,290 | 28,999.99 | — | Jul 24, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will GameStop acquire eBay?will gamestop acquire ebay | No | 86.0¢ | — | 2,000 | 0 | — | Jul 21, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?world cup winner | Yes | 64.8¢ | 58.4¢ | 4,414.84 | 1,700 | — | Jul 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?what price will wti hit in july 2026 | No | 87.8¢ | 100.0¢ | 13,400 | 0 | +$1,641 (+14.0%) | Jul 13, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?world cup winner | Yes | — | 21.5¢ | 0 | 3,700 | — | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31 | No | 90.6¢ | 99.6¢ | 99,500 | 99,500 | +$9,005 (+10.0%) | Jun 25, 2026 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15 | No | 95.6¢ | 99.9¢ | 38,079.99 | 38,079.99 | +$1,635 (+4.5%) | Jun 23, 2026 | |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?fed decision in june 825 | Yes | 93.2¢ | 97.5¢ | 173,000 | 173,000 | +$7,536 (+4.7%) | Jun 17, 2026 | |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?2026 nba champion | Yes | 16.9¢ | 29.0¢ | 74,799.98 | 74,799.98 | +$9,038 (+71.3%) | Jun 14, 2026 | |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31 | No | 91.3¢ | 99.8¢ | 35,000 | 35,000 | +$2,995 (+9.4%) | Jun 1, 2026 | |
| Will Trump visit China by May 15?will trump visit china by | Yes | 87.4¢ | 100.0¢ | 32,620 | 32,620 | +$4,100 (+14.4%) | May 13, 2026 | |
| Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?texas republican senate primary winner | Yes | 50.1¢ | 58.5¢ | 19,390 | 19,390 | +$1,647 (+17.0%) | May 5, 2026 | |
| Trump out as President by June 30?trump out as president by june 30 | No | 93.4¢ | 96.9¢ | 80,086.04 | 80,086.04 | +$2,813 (+3.8%) | May 2, 2026 | |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?who will be confirmed as fed chair | Yes | 94.4¢ | 98.5¢ | 52,300 | 52,300 | +$2,193 (+4.4%) | May 1, 2026 | |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?fed decision in april | Yes | 97.8¢ | 99.1¢ | 192,350 | 192,350 | +$2,425 (+1.3%) | Apr 26, 2026 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?will the iranian regime fall by march 31 | No | 94.2¢ | 99.8¢ | 220,000 | 220,000 | +$12,271 (+5.9%) | Apr 1, 2026 | |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?who will trump nominate as fed chair | Yes | 96.2¢ | 99.2¢ | 208,590.07 | 208,590.07 | +$6,305 (+3.1%) | Mar 5, 2026 | |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?who will trump nominate as fed chair | No | 97.0¢ | 98.2¢ | 215,599.98 | 215,599.98 | +$2,758 (+1.3%) | Mar 5, 2026 | |
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?who will trump nominate as fed chair | No | 70.5¢ | 90.5¢ | 23,909.86 | 23,909.86 | +$4,760 (+28.2%) | Jan 30, 2026 | |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?fed decision in january | Yes | 93.8¢ | 99.5¢ | 266,898 | 266,898 | +$15,215 (+6.1%) | Jan 29, 2026 | |
| Weed rescheduled in 2025?weed rescheduled in 2025 | No | 94.7¢ | 100.0¢ | 75,000 | 75,000 | +$3,975 (+5.6%) | Jan 1, 2026 | |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?khamenei out as supreme leader of iran in 2025 | No | 98.2¢ | 101.5¢ | 76,770 | 76,770 | +$2,578 (+3.4%) | Jan 1, 2026 | |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?fed decision in december | Yes | 55.4¢ | 100.0¢ | 221,597.7 | 221,597.7 | +$98,742 (+80.4%) | Dec 10, 2025 | |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?fed decision in october | Yes | 85.9¢ | 99.8¢ | 139,329.99 | 139,329.99 | +$19,331 (+16.1%) | Oct 30, 2025 | |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?fed decision in september | Yes | 89.6¢ | 100.0¢ | 244,569.99 | 244,569.99 | +$25,529 (+11.7%) | Sep 17, 2025 | |
| Fed rate cut in 2025?fed rate cut in 2025 | Yes | 75.5¢ | 91.9¢ | 64,451.73 | 64,451.73 | +$10,536 (+21.6%) | Aug 12, 2025 | |
| No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?fed decision in july | Yes | 90.7¢ | 94.4¢ | 172,888.99 | 172,888.99 | +$6,443 (+4.1%) | Jul 31, 2025 | |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31?khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by july 31 | No | 77.9¢ | 98.7¢ | 13,133.47 | 13,133.47 | +$2,729 (+26.7%) | Jul 2, 2025 | |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by june 30 | No | 90.1¢ | 100.0¢ | 65,600 | 65,600 | +$6,441 (+10.9%) | Jul 1, 2025 | |
| No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting?fed decision in june | Yes | 87.9¢ | 96.1¢ | 126,500 | 126,500 | +$10,454 (+9.4%) | Jun 18, 2025 | |
| Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 French Open?2025 french open winner | Yes | 24.9¢ | 81.0¢ | 3,000 | 3,000 | +$1,682 (+224.9%) | Jun 9, 2025 | |
| No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting?fed decision in may 2025 | Yes | 90.6¢ | 100.0¢ | 122,000 | 122,000 | +$11,507 (+10.4%) | May 8, 2025 | |
| Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days?trump pardons | No | 99.6¢ | 126.1¢ | 19,867.58 | 19,867.58 | +$5,272 (+26.6%) | Apr 30, 2025 | |
| Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin March 25-31?will microstrategy purchase bitcoin march 25 31 | Yes | 81.4¢ | 100.0¢ | 48,000 | 48,000 | +$8,930 (+22.9%) | Mar 31, 2025 | |
| No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting?fed decision in march | Yes | 90.8¢ | 99.2¢ | 164,080 | 164,080 | +$13,790 (+9.3%) | Mar 20, 2025 | |
| Will MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before March?will microstrategy hold 500k btc before march | No | 93.6¢ | 119.2¢ | 31,037.97 | 31,037.97 | +$7,946 (+27.4%) | Mar 1, 2025 | |
| Will MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before March?will microstrategy hold 500k btc before march | Yes | 65.7¢ | 76.5¢ | 42,512.95 | 42,512.95 | +$4,580 (+16.4%) | Mar 1, 2025 | |
| Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?will strategy purchase bitcoin feb 18 24 | Yes | 84.4¢ | 98.0¢ | 18,900 | 18,900 | +$2,567 (+16.1%) | Feb 23, 2025 | |
| Bernie Sanders votes to confirm Tulsi Gabbard?which senators will vote to confirm tulsi gabbard | No | 86.6¢ | 100.0¢ | 30,000 | 30,000 | +$4,020 (+15.5%) | Feb 12, 2025 | |
| Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?will microstrategy purchase bitcoin feb 4 10 | Yes | 77.6¢ | 99.9¢ | 14,273.69 | 14,273.69 | +$3,188 (+28.8%) | Feb 10, 2025 | |
| Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?will microstrategy purchase more bitcoin by monday | No | 14.1¢ | 88.3¢ | 31,778 | 31,778 | +$23,596 (+526.9%) | Feb 4, 2025 | |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting?fed interest rates january 2025 | Yes | 97.4¢ | 100.0¢ | 126,000 | 126,000 | +$3,203 (+2.6%) | Jan 30, 2025 | |
| Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?trump pardons | Yes | 77.6¢ | 97.8¢ | 71,999.98 | 71,999.98 | +$14,565 (+26.1%) | Jan 22, 2025 | |
| Will Biden finish his term?will biden complete his term as president | Yes | 98.6¢ | 99.6¢ | 222,075.6 | 222,075.6 | +$2,311 (+1.1%) | Jan 10, 2025 | |
| MicroStrategy purchases more Bitcoin before inauguration?will microstrategy purchase more bitcoin before trump inauguration | Yes | 86.4¢ | 96.8¢ | 18,252.07 | 18,252.07 | +$1,898 (+12.0%) | Jan 6, 2025 | |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting?fed interest rates december 2024 | Yes | 79.5¢ | 93.8¢ | 148,820.01 | 148,820.01 | +$21,202 (+17.9%) | Dec 18, 2024 | |
| Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?jake paul vs mike tyson who will win | Yes | 60.0¢ | 82.9¢ | 51,566.67 | 51,566.67 | +$11,815 (+38.2%) | Nov 16, 2024 | |
| Kamala Harris wins a solid red state?us presidential election democrats win a solid red state | No | 81.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 9,000 | 9,000 | +$1,712 (+23.5%) | Nov 7, 2024 | |
| Will a Republican win Iowa Presidential Election?iowa presidential election winner | Yes | 84.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 64,366.66 | 64,366.66 | +$10,308 (+19.1%) | Nov 6, 2024 | |
| Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election?georgia presidential election winner | Yes | 58.0¢ | 99.9¢ | 6,000 | 6,000 | +$2,514 (+72.2%) | Nov 6, 2024 | |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?presidential election winner 2024 | Yes | 49.6¢ | 55.1¢ | 297,688.61 | 297,688.61 | +$16,268 (+11.0%) | Oct 31, 2024 | |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting?fed interest rates september 2024 | Yes | 27.0¢ | 53.1¢ | 126,598.57 | 126,598.57 | +$32,992 (+96.4%) | Sep 19, 2024 | |
| Fed rate cut by July 31?fed rate cut by | No | 93.6¢ | 100.0¢ | 30,382.8 | 30,382.8 | +$1,952 (+6.9%) | Aug 1, 2024 | |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?democratic nominee 2024 | Yes | 45.5¢ | 62.4¢ | 21,415.81 | 21,415.81 | +$3,613 (+37.0%) | Jul 19, 2024 |