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0x3375...78b8
0x33757cea39414a6900c62835f6fc9e70c0aa78b8
—
/ 10 · 90D
Unclassed
Class · est. size $2.1K
90-Day WindowN/A SIG
- Edge / share
- +2.3¢ · 13 resolved
- Hit rate
- 63.2%
- Net P/L · Vol
- -$159.6 / $2.1K
- % return
- -6.9%
- Observations
- 19
Dive Profile
Return · 90D
0.0%
Hypothetical return if you’d copied every trade this wallet made starting from $100, staking 1% of your running balance on each — shown as % gain/loss vs that $100. Scrub the curve to read the markets that settled on any step in the Settlement Log below.
% return · $100 start · 1% per trade90-day trace
Current Positions
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg Entry | Current | Value | Unrealized P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 179.64 | 82.9¢ | 92.5¢ | $166 | +$17 (+11.6%) |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | No | 129.25 | 90.6¢ | 95.5¢ | $123 | +$6 (+5.4%) |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Yes | 174.37 | 38.7¢ | 58.9¢ | $103 | +$35 (+52.2%) |
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 68.89 | 92.8¢ | 96.0¢ | $66 | +$2 (+3.5%) |
| Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? | No | 62.82 | 89.1¢ | 92.0¢ | $58 | +$2 (+3.2%) |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 109.34 | 23.7¢ | 15.5¢ | $17 | -$9 (-34.7%) |
| Kash Patel out by December 31? | Yes | 72.09 | 44.3¢ | 20.5¢ | $15 | -$17 (-53.8%) |
| Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 397.56 | 3.1¢ | 3.6¢ | $15 | +$2 (+18.2%) |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 22.77 | 13.2¢ | 25.5¢ | $6 | +$3 (+93.8%) |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 57.42 | 11.8¢ | 8.1¢ | $5 | -$2 (-32.1%) |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 106.34 | 2.4¢ | 3.2¢ | $3 | +$1 (+31.9%) |
| Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 2,226.54 | 1.7¢ | 0.1¢ | $3 | -$33 (-90.9%) |
| Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 110.12 | 2.1¢ | 2.5¢ | $3 | +$1 (+24.0%) |
| Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? | Yes | 16.2 | 18.8¢ | 4.9¢ | $1 | -$2 (-73.9%) |
| Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 17.57 | 4.0¢ | 2.1¢ | $0 | -$0 (-46.3%) |
| Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 42.82 | 62.9¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$27 (-99.9%) |
Trade History
| Market | Outcome | Avg Entry | Avg Exit | Bought | Sold | P/L | Last | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?next french presidential election | Yes | 3.1¢ | 2.9¢ | 322.84 | 307.41 | — | Aug 2, 2026 |
| ▸ | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?us x iran effective ceasfire byptptpt 2 week pause 20260715194822042 | No | 85.2¢ | — | 210.47 | 0 | — | Aug 2, 2026 |
| ▸ | Kash Patel out by December 31?kash patel out by | Yes | 35.9¢ | 33.3¢ | 30.9 | 48.53 | — | Aug 2, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?california governor election 2026 | Yes | 93.3¢ | 92.8¢ | 102.55 | 57.75 | — | Aug 2, 2026 |
| ▸ | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?us iran final nuclear deal by 20260621201254412 | No | 96.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 154.4 | 0 | +$6 (+4.2%) | Aug 2, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?will the us invade iran before 2027 | Yes | 24.1¢ | 21.0¢ | 120.04 | 10.7 | — | Aug 2, 2026 |
| ▸ | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?israel x iran ceasefire continues throughptptpt 20260716224448963 | No | 52.6¢ | — | 12.66 | 0 | — | Aug 2, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?democratic presidential nominee 2028 | Yes | 2.2¢ | 1.7¢ | 179.31 | 354.58 | — | Aug 2, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?los angeles mayoral election 117 | Yes | 38.0¢ | 37.4¢ | 275.64 | 459.26 | — | Aug 2, 2026 |
| ▸ | Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?zelenskyy out as ukraine president before 2027 | No | 90.5¢ | 90.0¢ | 177.8 | 127.3 | — | Aug 1, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?will trump pardon ghislaine maxwell | No | 92.9¢ | 91.5¢ | 18.34 | 18.34 | — | Jul 30, 2026 |
| ▸ | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?israel withdraws from lebanon by | No | 97.0¢ | 97.1¢ | 38.93 | 42.82 | +$4 (+3.4%) | Jul 30, 2026 |
| ▸ | Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?delcy rodrguez out as leader of venezuela by | No | 91.0¢ | 90.6¢ | 1.32 | 16.8 | — | Jul 30, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in July?what price will ethereum hit in july 2026 | Yes | 6.3¢ | 6.8¢ | 108.6 | 64.05 | — | Jul 29, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in July?what price will ethereum hit in july 2026 | Yes | 0.6¢ | — | 79.96 | 0 | — | Jul 29, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in July?what price will ethereum hit in july 2026 | Yes | 1.7¢ | — | 62.59 | 0 | — | Jul 29, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?next french presidential election | Yes | 4.0¢ | — | 17.57 | 0 | — | Jul 28, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?venezuela leader end of 2026 | Yes | 12.0¢ | 11.0¢ | 8.22 | 5.28 | — | Jul 27, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?will trump meet with netanyahu byptptpt 20260714195149520 | Yes | 95.0¢ | 100.0¢ | 104.99 | 0 | +$5 (+5.3%) | Jul 26, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?will trump meet with netanyahu byptptpt 20260714195149520 | Yes | 97.0¢ | — | 63.17 | 0 | — | Jul 26, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?presidential election winner 2028 | Yes | 12.0¢ | 11.9¢ | 29.63 | 61.79 | — | Jul 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?next uk chancellor of the exchequer in 2026 20260621005319178 | No | 13.5¢ | 15.6¢ | 64.17 | 63.26 | +$6 (+8.7%) | Jul 20, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?maine senate election winner | No | — | 66.0¢ | 0 | 18.37 | — | Jul 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?world cup winner | No | 65.2¢ | 66.4¢ | 538.79 | 585.33 | +$4 (+0.5%) | Jul 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?israel withdraws from lebanon by | No | 99.0¢ | 98.4¢ | 16.42 | 0 | +$11 (+4.3%) | Jul 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?next uk chancellor of the exchequer in 2026 20260621005319178 | No | 96.5¢ | 95.0¢ | 17.15 | 11.55 | +$8 (+10.7%) | Jul 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?next uk prime minister in 2026 122 | Yes | — | 99.9¢ | 0 | 73.26 | — | Jul 19, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?democratic presidential nominee 2028 | Yes | — | 2.2¢ | 0 | 13.83 | — | Jul 18, 2026 |
| ▸ | Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?metamask fdv above one day after launch | Yes | 16.8¢ | — | 14.23 | 0 | — | Jul 13, 2026 |
| ▸ | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?which party will win the house in 2026 | Yes | 83.0¢ | — | 34.82 | 0 | — | Jul 12, 2026 |
| Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?which countries will recognize israel by june 30 | No | 99.6¢ | 103.8¢ | 178.9 | 178.9 | +$8 (+4.2%) | Jul 6, 2026 | |
| Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?los angeles mayoral election 117 | No | 93.5¢ | 96.1¢ | 160.79 | 160.79 | +$4 (+2.8%) | Jul 1, 2026 | |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?israel withdraws from lebanon by | No | 96.8¢ | 100.0¢ | 138.02 | 138.02 | +$4 (+3.3%) | Jul 1, 2026 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?will reza pahlavi enter iran by june 30 | No | 94.0¢ | 99.0¢ | 96.35 | 96.35 | +$5 (+5.3%) | Jul 1, 2026 | |
| Netanyahu out by June 30?netanyahu out before 2027 | No | 96.5¢ | 99.8¢ | 208.91 | 208.91 | +$7 (+3.5%) | Jul 1, 2026 | |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?israel x iran permanent peace deal by | No | 87.0¢ | 89.8¢ | 166.77 | 166.77 | +$5 (+3.2%) | Jul 1, 2026 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?will the iranian regime fall by june 30 | No | 90.6¢ | 97.5¢ | 1,769.57 | 1,769.57 | +$122 (+7.6%) | Jul 1, 2026 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of june | No | 89.2¢ | 96.9¢ | 143.57 | 143.57 | +$11 (+8.6%) | Jun 23, 2026 | |
| Starmer out by July 31, 2026?starmer out in 2025 | Yes | 90.4¢ | 99.9¢ | 125.59 | 125.59 | +$12 (+10.5%) | Jun 22, 2026 | |
| Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? us iran deal text released byptptpt 20260615224044572 | No | 81.1¢ | 95.2¢ | 29 | 29 | +$4 (+17.4%) | Jun 18, 2026 | |
| Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?will trump physically sign us x iran deal 20260615192526331 | Yes | 90.9¢ | 100.0¢ | 50.11 | 50.11 | +$5 (+10.0%) | Jun 18, 2026 | |
| Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?alabama republican senate primary winner | Yes | 87.2¢ | 94.3¢ | 38.49 | 38.49 | +$3 (+8.2%) | Jun 17, 2026 | |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by | No | 89.2¢ | 90.6¢ | 181.35 | 181.35 | +$3 (+1.6%) | Jun 16, 2026 | |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by | Yes | 77.5¢ | 95.0¢ | 143.13 | 143.13 | +$25 (+22.7%) | Jun 15, 2026 | |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by | Yes | 77.5¢ | 85.3¢ | 167.41 | 167.41 | +$13 (+10.0%) | Jun 15, 2026 | |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?israel x iran permanent peace deal by | Yes | 4.5¢ | 9.7¢ | 99.65 | 99.65 | +$5 (+114.5%) | Jun 13, 2026 | |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30?iran closes its airspace by | Yes | 29.1¢ | 34.9¢ | 170.13 | 170.13 | +$10 (+20.0%) | Jun 12, 2026 | |
| Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?maine democratic senate primary winner | Yes | 81.2¢ | 96.1¢ | 161.95 | 161.95 | +$24 (+18.4%) | Jun 10, 2026 | |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026?who will trump publicly insult by may 31 | Yes | 77.4¢ | 100.0¢ | 51.17 | 51.17 | +$12 (+29.2%) | Jun 4, 2026 | |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?iran ceasefire continues through | Yes | 95.0¢ | 96.8¢ | 594.46 | 594.46 | +$11 (+2.0%) | Jun 2, 2026 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?will the iranian regime fall by may 31 | No | 97.2¢ | 99.4¢ | 504.15 | 504.15 | +$11 (+2.3%) | Jun 1, 2026 | |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?israel x iran permanent peace deal by | No | 97.8¢ | 99.8¢ | 132.49 | 132.49 | +$3 (+2.0%) | Jun 1, 2026 | |
| Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?ruben rocha out as governor of sinaloa by may 31 | No | 9.1¢ | 72.3¢ | 7.05 | 7.05 | +$4 (+694.3%) | Jun 1, 2026 | |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?iran ceasefire continues through | Yes | 89.1¢ | 97.0¢ | 35.54 | 35.54 | +$3 (+8.9%) | May 24, 2026 | |
| Starmer out by May 19, 2026?starmer out in 2025 | No | 91.0¢ | 93.6¢ | 103.54 | 103.54 | +$3 (+2.8%) | May 20, 2026 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?will the iranian regime fall by the end of 2026 | No | 71.5¢ | 80.2¢ | 68.09 | 68.09 | +$6 (+12.1%) | May 19, 2026 | |
| Starmer out by May 15, 2026?starmer out in 2025 | No | 82.2¢ | 92.8¢ | 223.83 | 223.83 | +$24 (+12.9%) | May 16, 2026 | |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?who will be confirmed as fed chair | Yes | 98.3¢ | 99.5¢ | 1,769.87 | 1,769.87 | +$21 (+1.2%) | May 14, 2026 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?will the iranian regime fall by april 30 | No | 85.0¢ | 95.8¢ | 129.6 | 129.6 | +$14 (+12.7%) | May 1, 2026 | |
| SAVE Act becomes law by April 30, 2026?save act becomes law by | No | 96.0¢ | 99.8¢ | 119.01 | 119.01 | +$4 (+3.9%) | May 1, 2026 | |
| Netanyahu out by April 30?netanyahu out before 2027 | No | 97.5¢ | 99.4¢ | 436.44 | 436.44 | +$9 (+2.0%) | May 1, 2026 | |
| Starmer out by April 30, 2026?starmer out in 2025 | No | 98.5¢ | 99.9¢ | 366.69 | 366.69 | +$5 (+1.4%) | May 1, 2026 | |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?us iran nuclear deal by april 30 | No | 94.4¢ | 99.3¢ | 1,763.59 | 1,763.59 | +$87 (+5.2%) | May 1, 2026 | |
| Will Clayton Fuller win the GA-14 special election?ga 14 special election winner | Yes | 97.6¢ | 100.0¢ | 232.81 | 232.81 | +$6 (+2.5%) | Apr 8, 2026 | |
| Netanyahu out by March 31?netanyahu out before 2027 | No | 98.7¢ | 99.8¢ | 1,300.84 | 1,300.84 | +$14 (+1.1%) | Apr 5, 2026 | |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30?us forces enter iran by | No | 15.9¢ | 19.0¢ | 361.22 | 361.22 | +$11 (+19.7%) | Apr 3, 2026 | |
| Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by March 31?will trump talk to mojtaba khamenei by march 31 | No | 97.9¢ | 99.6¢ | 488.38 | 488.38 | +$8 (+1.8%) | Apr 1, 2026 | |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?us iran nuclear deal by march 31 | No | 96.3¢ | 98.8¢ | 261.44 | 261.44 | +$7 (+2.6%) | Apr 1, 2026 | |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31 | No | 91.2¢ | 93.4¢ | 440.41 | 440.41 | +$10 (+2.4%) | Apr 1, 2026 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?will the iranian regime fall by march 31 | No | 98.0¢ | 99.8¢ | 1,241.32 | 1,241.32 | +$22 (+1.8%) | Apr 1, 2026 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?will reza pahlavi enter iran by june 30 | No | 99.1¢ | 99.9¢ | 1,161.55 | 1,161.55 | +$10 (+0.9%) | Apr 1, 2026 | |
| Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by March 31, 2026?mojtaba khamenei leaves iran by | No | 98.4¢ | 99.9¢ | 400.43 | 400.43 | +$6 (+1.6%) | Apr 1, 2026 | |
| Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?paris mayoral election | Yes | 83.5¢ | 100.0¢ | 50.84 | 50.84 | +$8 (+19.7%) | Mar 23, 2026 |