ElectionsLiveResolves open-ended

Peru Election 2nd Round: Margin of Victory? (0.1% brackets)

View on Polymarket

YES Price

97.2¢

implied probability

24h Drift

-0.1¢

day-over-day

Volatility

19.4¢

daily price swing (σ)

Liquidity

$602.4K

order-book depth

24h Volume

$6.2K

traded last day

Smart $ Net

$109.1

tracked buy − sell

Tracked Wallets

2 YES · 0 NO

Top Holder

94%

of tracked capital

Price History

Fujimori 0.2–0.3%Fujimori 0.3–0.4%Fujimori 0.1–0.2%Whale buyWhale sellRegime shift

YES implied probability over time (intraday resolution), with tracked whale trades overlaid at their YES-equivalent price so buys/sells sit on the line (marker size ∝ trade value). 1 regime shift flagged — days where the consensus moved more than 2.5σ (likely news shocks).

Whale Activity

3 tracked fills

Tracked smart money is net buying ($109 net), leaning YES. Largest single move: a rank-#96 wallet bought $58 YES at 78¢ on Jun 10.

BUYYES0xba3c...2e4e#9678¢$57.7Jun 10
BUYYES0x79d9...baec#3884¢$31.1Jun 17
BUYYES0xba3c...2e4e#9678¢$20.3Jun 10

Holder Concentration

0x79d9...baec#38

93.5%$1.1K

0xba3c...2e4e#96

6.5%$78

How committed capital is distributed. Top-5 wallets hold 100% of tracked capital (HHI 0.88). A high HHI means a few big convictions drive this market.

Participant P/L

≤ −$5K

−$5K…−$1K

−$1K…−$100

≈ flat

$100…$1K

$1K…$5K

≥ $5K

Distribution of tracked wallets’ P/L in this market. 1 winning, 0 losing (win rate 100%); net $197.6 across 2 wallets.

Smart-Money Lean

By headcount100% / 0%

one wallet, one vote

By capital100% / 0%

weighted by committed $

By skill100% / 0%

weighted by skill score — where the sharpest money sits

Three views of which side tracked traders favor. When the skill-weighted lean diverges from the headcount, the most proven wallets disagree with the crowd.

Contacts on Station

leaderboard wallets in this market · click a row for fills

	Contact	Side	State	Size	Avg Entry	Value	P/L	First Buy	Last Trade
▸	0x79d9...baec Rank #387.7 SIG	YES	open	1,346.13	84.0¢	$1,309	+$178 +15.8%	Jun 17, 2026	Jun 17, 2026
▸	0xba3c...2e4e Rank #966.7 SIG	YES	open	100	78.0¢	$97	+$19 +24.7%	Jun 10, 2026	Jun 10, 2026