France vs. Iraq
View on PolymarketPrice History
YES implied probability over time (intraday resolution), with tracked whale trades overlaid at their YES-equivalent price so buys/sells sit on the line (marker size ∝ trade value). 1 regime shift flagged — days where the consensus moved more than 2.5σ (likely news shocks).
Whale Activity
Tracked smart money is net buying ($82.3K net), leaning YES. Largest single move: CrunchWrapoDeLaFuente bought $29.9K YES at 96¢ on Jun 22.
- BUYYESCrunchWrapoDeLaFuente96¢$29.9KJun 22
- BUYYESCrunchWrapoDeLaFuente90¢$20KJun 22
- BUYYESCrunchWrapoDeLaFuente90¢$14.3KJun 22
- BUYYESCrunchWrapoDeLaFuente96¢$9.8KJun 22
- BUYYES0xca09...5e81#7391¢$5KJun 22
- BUYYESCrunchWrapoDeLaFuente90¢$1.7KJun 22
- BUYYESCrunchWrapoDeLaFuente96¢$963Jun 22
- SELLNOCrunchWrapoDeLaFuente9¢$900Jun 22
Holder Concentration
How committed capital is distributed. Top-5 wallets hold 100% of tracked capital (HHI 0.88). A high HHI means a few big convictions drive this market.
Participant P/L
Distribution of tracked wallets’ P/L in this market. 1 winning, 0 losing (win rate 100%); net $861.4 across 3 wallets.
Smart-Money Lean
Three views of which side tracked traders favor. When the skill-weighted lean diverges from the headcount, the most proven wallets disagree with the crowd.
Contacts on Station
| Contact | Side | State | Size | Avg Entry | Value | P/L | First Buy | Last Trade | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 0xd396...4991 Rank #268.3 SIG | YES | open | 200 | 91.0¢ | $200 | +$18 +9.6% | Jun 22, 2026 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | 0xca09...5e81 Rank #736.6 SIG | YES | open | 5,375.15 | 92.2¢ | $5,050 | +$96 +1.9% | Jun 22, 2026 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| ▸ | @CrunchWrapoDeLaFuente Unranked | YES | open | 82,902 | 93.0¢ | $77,886 | +$747 +1.0% | Jun 22, 2026 | Jun 22, 2026 |