BrazilLiveResolves Oct 4, 2026

Brazil Presidential Election

View on Polymarket

YES Price

54.5¢

implied probability

24h Drift

-1.0¢

day-over-day

Volatility

1.7¢

daily price swing (σ)

Liquidity

$9M

order-book depth

24h Volume

$537.7K

traded last day

Smart $ Net

-$0.4

tracked buy − sell

Tracked Wallets

5 YES · 0 NO

Top Holder

37%

of tracked capital

Price History

Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaFlávio BolsonaroRenan SantosWhale buyWhale sellRegime shift

YES implied probability over time (intraday resolution), with tracked whale trades overlaid at their YES-equivalent price so buys/sells sit on the line (marker size ∝ trade value). 6 regime shifts flagged — days where the consensus moved more than 2.5σ (likely news shocks).

Whale Activity

1 tracked fill

Tracked smart money is net selling ($0 net), leaning YES. Largest single move: peepeehua sold $0 YES at 54¢ on Jun 22.

SELLYESpeepeehua#3354¢$0.4Jun 22

Holder Concentration

37.4%$445.5

33.6%$399.6

16.9%$201.4

10.4%$123.9

1.7%$20.4

How committed capital is distributed. Top-5 wallets hold 100% of tracked capital (HHI 0.29). A high HHI means a few big convictions drive this market.

Participant P/L

≤ −$5K

−$5K…−$1K

−$1K…−$100

≈ flat

$100…$1K

$1K…$5K

≥ $5K

Distribution of tracked wallets’ P/L in this market. 1 winning, 0 losing (win rate 100%); net $559.5 across 5 wallets.

Smart-Money Lean

By headcount100% / 0%

one wallet, one vote

By capital100% / 0%

weighted by committed $

By skill100% / 0%

weighted by skill score — where the sharpest money sits

Three views of which side tracked traders favor. When the skill-weighted lean diverges from the headcount, the most proven wallets disagree with the crowd.

Contacts on Station

leaderboard wallets in this market · click a row for fills

	Contact	Side	State	Size	Avg Entry	Value	P/L	First Buy	Last Trade
	0xd396...4991 Rank #268.3 SIG	YES	open	888	45.0¢	$484	+$84 +21.1%	—	—
	@cry.eth2 Rank #447.5 SIG	YES	open	1,031.05	12.0¢	$562	+$438 +353.4%	—	—
	@Jep-G Rank #976.7 SIG	YES	open	50	40.7¢	$27	+$7 +33.8%	—	—
▸	@peepeehua Rank #338.0 SIG	YES	closed	874.56	50.9¢	—	+$18 +3.9%	Jun 22, 2026	Jun 22, 2026
	0x6770...45fb Rank #716.7 SIG	YES	closed	428.55	47.0¢	—	+$13 +6.4%	Jun 12, 2026	Jun 13, 2026