PoliticsLiveResolves Dec 31, 2026

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

View on Polymarket

YES Price

37.0¢

implied probability

24h Drift

0.0¢

day-over-day

Volatility

1.9¢

daily price swing (σ)

Liquidity

$1.5M

order-book depth

24h Volume

$643.2K

traded last day

Smart $ Net

-$65

tracked buy − sell

Tracked Wallets

4 YES · 0 NO

Top Holder

68%

of tracked capital

Price History

Gadi EizenkotBenjamin NetanyahuNaftali BennettWhale buyWhale sellRegime shift

YES implied probability over time (intraday resolution), with tracked whale trades overlaid at their YES-equivalent price so buys/sells sit on the line (marker size ∝ trade value). 7 regime shifts flagged — days where the consensus moved more than 2.5σ (likely news shocks).

Whale Activity

5 tracked fills

Tracked smart money is net selling ($65 net), leaning YES. Largest single move: a rank-#15 wallet sold $30 YES at 37¢ on Jun 17.

SELLYES0x371c...c236#1537¢$30.1Jun 17
SELLYES0x371c...c236#1538¢$14.2Jun 18
SELLYES0x371c...c236#1538¢$8.2Jun 18
SELLYES0x371c...c236#1538¢$8.1Jun 18
SELLYES0x371c...c236#1538¢$4.4Jun 18

Holder Concentration

WashTrade#93

67.9%$946.1

0x0dcc...d87c#51

27.9%$388.9

0x371c...c236#15

4.1%$56.8

0x6992D56559Dd30b5B5D0F5cA3D5427F9e94e6c1d-1760272837095#69

0.1%$1.5

How committed capital is distributed. Top-5 wallets hold 100% of tracked capital (HHI 0.54). A high HHI means a few big convictions drive this market.

Participant P/L

≤ −$5K

−$5K…−$1K

−$1K…−$100

≈ flat

$100…$1K

$1K…$5K

≥ $5K

Distribution of tracked wallets’ P/L in this market. 2 winning, 0 losing (win rate 100%); net $500.2 across 4 wallets.

Smart-Money Lean

By headcount100% / 0%

one wallet, one vote

By capital100% / 0%

weighted by committed $

By skill100% / 0%

weighted by skill score — where the sharpest money sits

Three views of which side tracked traders favor. When the skill-weighted lean diverges from the headcount, the most proven wallets disagree with the crowd.

Contacts on Station

leaderboard wallets in this market · click a row for fills

	Contact	Side	State	Size	Avg Entry	Value	P/L	First Buy	Last Trade
▸	0x371c...c236 Rank #159.1 SIG	YES	open	180.4	31.5¢	$67	+$10 +17.7%	Jun 17, 2026	Jun 18, 2026
	@0x6992D56559Dd30b5B5D0F5cA3D5427F9e94e6c1d-1760272837095 Rank #696.7 SIG	YES	open	12.52	12.0¢	$5	+$3 +209.0%	Jun 9, 2026	Jun 9, 2026
	0x0dcc...d87c Rank #517.2 SIG	YES	closed	1,911.95	20.3¢	—	+$107 +27.5%	May 31, 2026	Jun 4, 2026
	@WashTrade Rank #936.8 SIG	YES	closed	7,235.65	13.1¢	—	+$380 +40.2%	—	May 25, 2026