Foreign PolicyLiveResolves Dec 31, 2026

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

View on Polymarket

YES Price

6.3¢

implied probability

24h Drift

0.0¢

day-over-day

Volatility

1.4¢

daily price swing (σ)

Liquidity

$618K

order-book depth

24h Volume

$38K

traded last day

Smart $ Net

-$0.4

tracked buy − sell

Tracked Wallets

2 YES · 4 NO

Top Holder

60%

of tracked capital

Price History

YES priceWhale buyWhale sellRegime shift

YES implied probability over time (intraday resolution), with tracked whale trades overlaid at their YES-equivalent price so buys/sells sit on the line (marker size ∝ trade value). 3 regime shifts flagged — days where the consensus moved more than 2.5σ (likely news shocks).

Whale Activity

1 tracked fill

Tracked smart money is net selling ($0 net), leaning YES. Largest single move: peepeehua sold $0 YES at 6¢ on Jun 22.

SELLYESpeepeehua#336¢$0.4Jun 22

Holder Concentration

59.8%$16.5K

32.6%$9K

3.2%$884.9

2.8%$783.4

1.6%$428

0.0%$1.1

How committed capital is distributed. Top-5 wallets hold 100% of tracked capital (HHI 0.47). A high HHI means a few big convictions drive this market.

Participant P/L

≤ −$5K

−$5K…−$1K

−$1K…−$100

≈ flat

$100…$1K

$1K…$5K

≥ $5K

Distribution of tracked wallets’ P/L in this market. 1 winning, 2 losing (win rate 33%); net $160.3 across 6 wallets.

Smart-Money Lean

By headcount33% / 67%

one wallet, one vote

By capital4% / 96%

weighted by committed $

By skill36% / 64%

weighted by skill score — where the sharpest money sits

Three views of which side tracked traders favor. When the skill-weighted lean diverges from the headcount, the most proven wallets disagree with the crowd.

Contacts on Station

leaderboard wallets in this market · click a row for fills

	Contact	Side	State	Size	Avg Entry	Value	P/L	First Buy	Last Trade
	0xbd27...2807 Rank #139.5 SIG	NO	open	999.98	88.5¢	$937	+$53 +5.9%	—	—
	@de5nuts Rank #218.7 SIG	YES	open	4,000	10.7¢	$250	-$178 -41.6%	—	—
	0x6770...45fb Rank #716.7 SIG	NO	open	1.22	93.3¢	$1	+$0 +0.5%	Jun 12, 2026	Jun 14, 2026
▸	@peepeehua Rank #338.0 SIG	YES	closed	6,813.96	11.5¢	—	+$92 +11.8%	Jun 22, 2026	Jun 22, 2026
	0x407d...1bae Rank #527.2 SIG	NO	closed	18,000	91.6¢	—	-$121 -0.7%	—	Apr 7, 2026
	@kevtp Rank #1006.0 SIG	NO	closed	9,999.59	89.7¢	—	+$314 +3.5%	—	Apr 18, 2026