Which party will win the House in 2026?
View on PolymarketYES Price
81.5¢
implied probability
24h Drift
+1.0¢
day-over-day
Volatility
0.9¢
daily price swing (σ)
Liquidity
$725K
order-book depth
24h Volume
$12.8K
traded last day
Smart $ Net
$0
tracked buy − sell
Tracked Wallets
6
4 YES · 2 NO
Top Holder
44%
of tracked capital
Price History
Democratic PartyRepublican PartyWhale buyWhale sellRegime shift
YES implied probability over time (intraday resolution), with tracked whale trades overlaid at their YES-equivalent price so buys/sells sit on the line (marker size ∝ trade value). 6 regime shifts flagged — days where the consensus moved more than 2.5σ (likely news shocks).
Whale Activity
No tracked whale trades in this market yet.
Holder Concentration
0x79d9...baec#38
44.1%$13K
lomneivan#17
34.5%$10.2K
0xba3c...2e4e#96
14.2%$4.2K
gandalf#21
5.5%$1.6K
0xbd27...2807#13
1.4%$415
42021#86
0.3%$75.5
How committed capital is distributed. Top-5 wallets hold 100% of tracked capital (HHI 0.34). A high HHI means a few big convictions drive this market.
Participant P/L
Distribution of tracked wallets’ P/L in this market. 1 winning, 2 losing (win rate 33%); net -$375.2 across 6 wallets.
Smart-Money Lean
By headcount67% / 33%
one wallet, one vote
By capital94% / 6%
weighted by committed $
By skill68% / 32%
weighted by skill score — where the sharpest money sits
Three views of which side tracked traders favor. When the skill-weighted lean diverges from the headcount, the most proven wallets disagree with the crowd.
Contacts on Station
| Contact | Side | State | Size | Avg Entry | Value | P/L | First Buy | Last Trade | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xbd27...2807 Rank #139.5 SIG | YES | open | 500 | 83.0¢ | $403 | -$13 -3.0% | — | — | |
| @lomneivan Rank #179.2 SIG | YES | open | 12,859.39 | 79.0¢ | $10,352 | +$193 +1.9% | May 18, 2026 | May 18, 2026 | |
| 0x79d9...baec Rank #387.7 SIG | YES | open | 15,620 | 83.0¢ | $12,574 | -$390 -3.0% | Jun 12, 2026 | Jun 12, 2026 | |
| @42021 Rank #866.3 SIG | NO | open | 391.85 | 19.3¢ | $76 | +$1 +1.2% | — | Jun 4, 2026 | |
| 0xba3c...2e4e Rank #966.7 SIG | YES | open | 5,000 | 83.8¢ | $4,025 | -$166 -3.9% | — | — | |
| @gandalf Rank #219.1 SIG | NO | closed | 5,344.01 | 30.0¢ | — | -$0 -0.0% | — | Aug 11, 2025 |